weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yeah agreed about ice.... wind gusts won't be very exciting either with one hell of an inversion. The interesting thing is going to be if we can get into elevated convection like the NAM shows and get into a flood threat. The NAM is quite robust with the amount of elevated instability in place while the GFS is much laid back in that department. It will be interesting to see what does happen as both the NAM/GFS do indicate some cooling occurring aloft late in the afternoon as the cold front approaches. Nice dry slot being depicted as well which could add to enhance some of that elevated instability, perhaps the NAM is picking up on this better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Looks like a yawner for most of us. The rain only briefly heavy ahead of the cold front..a few hours max warm sector..and maybe a few rumbles and no wind... Icing is more of a concern than anything else with this.. then it's back to winter tomorrow night as it ends as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Looks like a yawner for most of us. The rain only briefly heavy ahead of the cold front..a few hours max warm sector..and maybe a few rumbles and no wind... Icing is more of a concern than anything else with this.. then it's back to winter tomorrow night as it ends as snow I don't think we see any snow accumulation icing will be minor maybe an hour or two of light freezing rain (maybe more prolonged northern litchfield county) The flood threat is more interesting tomorrow if convection can actually develop up here like the NAM is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The NAM is quite robust with the amount of elevated instability in place while the GFS is much laid back in that department. It will be interesting to see what does happen as both the NAM/GFS do indicate some cooling occurring aloft late in the afternoon as the cold front approaches. Nice dry slot being depicted as well which could add to enhance some of that elevated instability, perhaps the NAM is picking up on this better than the GFS. I could see a real surprise temperature spike tomorrow too. I'm going 45 at BDL... but we could spike into the mid 50s if we get a bit of clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ice jam causes flooding around Ginx????? Someone alert the government! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 So we have two separate discussions for one storm ehh.. ok will post ice stuff over there. BTW ,18Z GFS now takes the low near or just above ALB...significant trend south. I could see a real surprise temperature spike tomorrow too. I'm going 45 at BDL... but we could spike into the mid 50s if we get a bit of clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I could see a real surprise temperature spike tomorrow too. I'm going 45 at BDL... but we could spike into the mid 50s if we get a bit of clearing. That will be interesting to watch tomorrow...the temp spike/warm sector. I could see mid 40s for a lot of CT or I could see even some readings close to 60F getting into SW CT if everything goes right. Hard to say just how north the true warm sector gets. A lot might have to do with the cloud cover...if it stays cloudy, then you get into the "dirty warm sector" and probably have trouble cracking out of the 40s....but places SW that clear a bit could be in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Don't think there's any severe threat here... but there is an interesting threat for flash flooding late tomorrow especially if temperatures can warm more than forecasted and we get a solid slug of elevated thunderstorms. Ice jams, as well, make things interesting. You might like the melt down thread started by Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ice jam causes flooding around Ginx????? Someone alert the government! Hey I never had an issue around my house, my 83 year old mother and Aunts places well yeah, ask Eleanor bout that. As Scooter says getting old, find a new line LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 That will be interesting to watch tomorrow...the temp spike/warm sector. I could see mid 40s for a lot of CT or I could see even some readings close to 60F getting into SW CT if everything goes right. Hard to say just how north the true warm sector gets. A lot might have to do with the cloud cover...if it stays cloudy, then you get into the "dirty warm sector" and probably have trouble cracking out of the 40s....but places SW that clear a bit could be in the 60s. It's really a tough forecast. I think a conservative 45 tomorrow is good... but yeah I could see 60 somewhere in CT if things break right. A lot will depend on some mesoscale processes and where exactly convection forms tonight and tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Hey I never had an issue around my house, my 83 year old mother and Aunts places well yeah, ask Eleanor bout that. As Scooter says getting old, find a new line LOL lol... hey I was down there for days I saw how bad it was... especially in Westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 You might like the melt down thread started by Phil I prefer this one for more near-term stuff with the impending storm.Particularly flash flood threat from convection and ice jams tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 It's really a tough forecast. I think a conservative 45 tomorrow is good... but yeah I could see 60 somewhere in CT if things break right. A lot will depend on some mesoscale processes and where exactly convection forms tonight and tomorrow AM. Basically a rinse repeat of Fri? SW CT SE CT torches with the boundary from hell in NCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 The big thing is if we see any clearing what time does it occur? I think it may happen (if it does at all) late enough in the afternoon to where we've already lost a great deal of heating as the sun is already beginning to set. I could certainly see SW CT spiking well into the 50's to perhaps 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Basically a rinse repeat of Fri? SW CT SE CT torches with the boundary from hell in NCT Well I think we warm sector much more easily Monday than on Friday... but we're not talking about the warm sector that NE NJ will break into with 60s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 lol... hey I was down there for days I saw how bad it was... especially in Westerly. What's ironic is you were the only one for a day and the people in Westerly, well the ones with power, never saw you because they do not have you on cable in RI, great job by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 That will be interesting to watch tomorrow...the temp spike/warm sector. I could see mid 40s for a lot of CT or I could see even some readings close to 60F getting into SW CT if everything goes right. Hard to say just how north the true warm sector gets. A lot might have to do with the cloud cover...if it stays cloudy, then you get into the "dirty warm sector" and probably have trouble cracking out of the 40s....but places SW that clear a bit could be in the 60s. 60 would be awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What's ironic is you were the only one for a day and the people in Westerly, well the ones with power, never saw you because they do not have you on cable in RI, great job by the way. Yeah none of the RI stations went there... I spoke with the first selectman and others in town. It was really bad. In CT we are lucky since the state DEP operates so many river gauges... many were purchased after the 1982 floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I prefer this one for more near-term stuff with the impending storm.Particularly flash flood threat from convection and ice jams tomorrow. I meant for the over all hydro potential stuff, this could get ugly especially if that cutoff happens. Snowpack is total glacial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What's ironic is you were the only one for a day and the people in Westerly, well the ones with power, never saw you because they do not have you on cable in RI, great job by the way. I do have to say at least in CT the forecast was for flooding was phenomenal and the NWS did a really superb job (particularly NERFC) with the March event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I meant for the over all hydro potential stuff, this could get ugly especially if that cutoff happens. Snowpack is total glacial. Rivers are getting high though so we've definitely been losing it. A 2 day 3 or 4" rain event would be a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I do have to say at least in CT the forecast was for flooding was phenomenal and the NWS did a really superb job (particularly NERFC) with the March event last year. Last March was horrible, between the mega wind event that left much of sw fairfield cty in the dark for days, and the flooding, everyone flooded on our street. No use for flooding, ice or damaging winds, absolutely nothing good comes of it. If its not going to snow(which its not down here) then bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 CT has it's own little thread going here. Is the snowpack going to cut loose this time? Riper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yeah none of the RI stations went there... I spoke with the first selectman and others in town. It was really bad. In CT we are lucky since the state DEP operates so many river gauges... many were purchased after the 1982 floods. Geez Ryan that Euro run sure looks familiar next week, cutoff and all, there is a ton of water stored. My pack just absorbed that 2 plus we had the other day. I only lost two inches and made that back up. Check out the pics of the stream near me, that was mostly straight runoff, the hills above me are just loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Geez Ryan that Euro run sure looks familiar next week, cutoff and all, there is a ton of water stored. My pack just absorbed that 2 plus we had the other day. I only lost two inches and made that back up. Check out the pics of the stream near me, that was mostly straight runoff, the hills above me are just loaded. Yeah the Euro shows the potential for something ugly but doesn't quite put all the pieces together. Interested to see how it winds up playing out. Tomorrow will be interesting too. We could have a decent surprise mini-flood if temps torch too much and we get PM convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Rivers are getting high though so we've definitely been losing it. A 2 day 3 or 4" rain event would be a big problem. Lots of straight runoff from frozen ground and high QPF, wait until that pack ripens above us. Freeze and refreeze every storm just locks in more and more, we lose some depth but gain SWE, amazing process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 CT has it's own little thread going here. Is the snowpack going to cut loose this time? Riper? No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The AFD was quite bullish for convection in some areas. Wiz must have fainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 The AFD was quite bullish for convection in some areas. Wiz must have fainted. Oh wow! I actually haven't read the AFD until just now...pretty cool. Makes me want May to get here SOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Makes me want May to get here SOON That's when svr season ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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