weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I don't think there is a thread on this... Once we get through the clipper system atrention quickly turns to the next approaching storm system which will affect the region Monday into Tuesday. While this past event we are dealing with now dropped a decent amount of snow for some palces in extreme northern MA and VT/NH this upcoming one may be more in the way of liquid precipitation for these areas, although extreme northern New England may have to deal with winter fun. Another potent storm system will be trakcing through the central US, this system will also be capable of producing quite a bit of severe weather, potentially in some of the areas that were hit yesterday. Areas from eastern OK to AR to southern MO to KY/TN/MS/AL all are in the threat for the potential for severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible in these areas. As the system moves northward towards the northeast a warm front will also lift northward, right now model consensus seems to have the low pressure tracking well to our northwest, which would end up placing us in the warm sector as the front swings northward. This will have to be watched over the next few days as the track of this surface low may eventually shift more to the southeast, sort of like what occurred today. If this does happen, depending on how far southeast the surface low tracks could have major implications on how far northward the warm front gets and how warm temperatures get. If we end up getting well into the warm sector than temperatures will really spike, potentially into the 50' to perhaps even lower 60's. However, climatologically speaking the better chance of this occurring is down across NJ and areas further south so this is something to keep in mind as well. For locations to do warm sector along with the threat for heavy rain will also be the potential for thunderstorms as there will be a great deal of jet dynamics aloft to go with a good deal of forcing. It isn't out of the question that there could be some isolated severe weather but this is all dependent on the warm sector and if any instability manages to develop...this will have to be watched closely as we near Monday. The main issue from this system for our area may be flooding. There is still a great deal of snow cover across the region and we just finsihed with a soaking rainstorm which dumped a good 1-2'' to perhaps as much as 3'' across a good part of the area. The ground is very saturated and snowmelt is not helping this cause any further. Strong winds may be an issue as well, especially along the coastal areas, which is what we have seen occur today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Nice write-up, thanks much. Not looking forward to rain after a beauty of a snow event today, but she'll do what she'll do, so to say. And yeah, as is often with a cutter, the winds should be up a bit--on both sides! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 That figures. I have Tuesday off and am planning on skiing somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Bring it on! Let's wash this painful excuse of winter away and herald in the inevitability of spring. ....just before that historic March 8th snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Track should be similiar to todays track.. so not much severe threeat except ri se mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Track should be similiar to todays track.. so not much severe threeat except ri se mass I think it goes nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 This is another one of those that's going to produce a sick low topped convective squall line in the warm sector, first developing down in the south and then racing northeastward. Going to have a great deal of linear forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 With any luck for the interior folk this goes across sne, but it's going to be more difficult to do that, compared to this one. If they do warm sector, it may be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 With any luck for the interior folk this goes across sne, but it's going to be more difficult to do that, compared to this one. If they do warm sector, it may be brief. This track and setup would scream severe wx outbreak for the OV to NY/PA/WV areas if this were April or May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I suspect last week's freak show cluster of nocturnal thunderstorms that raced unexpectedly through the area in a quasi-barotropic region beneath strong polar dynamics has perhaps rosined up severe weather bows. Oops. We are about 1.5 months minimum (more like 2.5) prematurely ejaculating in this wet dream because of all that porn last week. That's the problem with the weather-emotion devotees out there, is that those types of climatological no-no's get you all lubed up, and wholly prepared to epically disappointed - almost seemingly engineered to do so. If we did not see thunder in the area until April 15, I wouldn't be shocked any more than if we somehow got absurdly lucky and did it again over Monday-Tuesday. There is too much that can and most probably will go wrong in the first week of March - and I can't believe we're even having this discussion... This next system (not tomorrow's waste of time) will have this zygote spring season's most impressive warm sector to date spanning much of the eastern CONUS, to about the Mason/Dixie and points S/SE. In fact, many in this region will have temperatures soaring to 77F with low 50s DP (in the 60s along the gulf a sinch). That fundamental necessity isn't getting anywhere close to SNE. I think a kind of micro tornado outbreak could take place near the boot heel of MO and surrounding AR regions, though, when that tightly wound mlv vort max punches into the W/NW periphery of said warm sector. But none of that generalized severe potential (less T) is likely to translated any farther NE of DAY-PHL....may up to SW CT if lucky where elevated thunder could not be ruled out. Severe in SNE is a distantly low probability given to these synoptics. It is quite questionable whether warm sector makes it N of the CT/RI, and where it does get into those latitudes, it will be dirty as a dump truck's exhaust with all kinds of contaminating cloud limiting any heating... which, by the way, is non-existent (diabatic) because that best presentation on any warmth is overnight into Tue am. By 1am Tuesday there is an intense baroclinic axis bifurcating the region from NE/SW, moving E, and by dawn we've enter into one helluva CAA whip-lash back into more wasted cold ...before the next system ends up contaminated and W because of the same on-going reason that has completely turned what was otherwise a glorious winter into an ending big piece of disappointing pedestrian schit. So far my evil plan to have this become the worst spring imaginable is almost complete. Muahahaha. So far, we are 0 and 2...This next event will make it 0-3, and off to the perfect undefeated, perfect disappointment season. I figure the "season" ends on April 1 because any remote inkling of responsibility to climatological thinking insists that even Kevin gives up on that date (or not). Let's call this the, "Could March utterly f ck up any more?", season, and see how far this dagger of -PNA/+NOA dirth digs into the hearts of those unable to let go of what has painfully clearly been dead for weeks. A 0-3 beginning is an awesome record, and we are leading in the "division of the desperate". Hey, it's bad - let's have fun with it! Seriously, I don't think any convection meaningful will be in the area. I haven't seen the 12z NAM but my suspicion overall is that this next system trends cooler, like the last, but ultimately not enough and we keep any such fun streak alive. We need you and Vim Toot to have some sort of a "write-off" competition. Don't think sne will see much in the way of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 We need you and Vim Toot to have some sort of a "write-off" competition. Don't think sne will see much in the way of convection. lets get this thing south so we have icing from hell for the interior. rev will improve and also deserve big props for calling this thing taking a S track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I would say plenty of icing for the interior now and maybe a switch back to snow Monday night as the trailing wave moves through? In any event...disaster looks to be averted. lets get this thing south so we have icing from hell for the interior. rev will improve and also deserve big props for calling this thing taking a S track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 lets get this thing south so we have icing from hell for the interior. rev will improve and also deserve big props for calling this thing taking a S track. the euro got even warmer for monday... +8 850's reach the NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 the euro got even warmer for monday... +8 850's reach the NH border LOL..no it didn't..See the Obs thread..it got significantly colder esp.north of the pike. It's gonna track just like yesterdays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 LOL..no it didn't..See the Obs thread..it got significantly colder esp.north of the pike. It's gonna track just like yesterdays the warm front reaches further north than it does on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 the warm front reaches further north than it does on the 00z run the low track shifted SE a little. that allows for the better WAA to hit us, instead of cutting west into ny/pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 the low track shifted SE a little. that allows for the better WAA to hit us, instead of cutting west into ny/pa It's moved from tracking over Duluth a few days ago to NY/PA - I don't think it's done moving yet. Still won't make a difference for mby since it's going to be all rain here. And I'd actually love getting full warm sectored for the wind and t-storm threat which your back-yard has a much better shot at. You're from the NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday's storm continues to resemble yesterday more and more. POS vortmax moving under sne. If that vortmax north of Toronto were weaker, this thing probably would be an ice to snow event for a bunch of the interior. That seems to be keeping this low on a further north track. Verbatim it torches to the pike. It's similar to 00z for temps for your area, but I think the point to take away here is that it seems like it could be something where a chunk of the interior could have icing and then change to an icy cold rain...especially up towards GC and ORH county. It was def colder . We can't treat every low that is progged to go west as something that will always come back se...lol. However, this one also has some signs like that last low, that it may be more of a colder solution at the surface for the interior. Not really a lock for sne just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Could be some serious icing east slopes of the Monadnocks into east-central NH and the CT river valley in west-central NH. As for convective potential, I think that SE CT into RI and SE MA is at risk for a few thunderstorms with strong to damaging wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 18z NAM makes a huge jump toward the GFS as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 The better chance for convection will likely occur to the SW of SNE...perhaps the same areas that had convection on Friday. As for our region this one will again be another mess...I could definitely see some icing issues across portions of central and northern New England. In the warm sector though temps may approach the mid 50's...possibly 60's down into NJ and winds will be quite gusty in the warm sector as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 BTV says I may not even see any plain liquid rain... snow to sleet and freezing rain. Lets hope the 12z NAM is right, then we probably don't even see freezing rain. Heavy rain FTL and heavy snow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 the euro got even warmer for monday... +8 850's reach the NH border Troll. Gettin bored down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 lets get this thing south so we have icing from hell for the interior. rev will improve and also deserve big props for calling this thing taking a S track. This. Heavy Heavy Ice. Birving's ice fetish will be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'll take a rain versus snow event at this point. If we get anything like the storms we had on the 18th it will be just a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 We probably won't see anything impressive with convection tomorrow...we never usually do this time of year and all the fun stuff will be occurring down to our southwest. Anyways though looking at some periods of extremely heavy rainfall tomorrow so some flooding is a sure bet. Winds aloft not as crazy as they were on Friday but still fairly strong...pretty good inversion in place (as there usually is) should keep much of them from reaching the ground. Do have to watch though for any convection to try and bring some of the stronger winds down but perhaps the strongest winds occur just as the front is passing and moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 We probably won't see anything impressive with convection tomorrow...we never usually do this time of year and all the fun stuff will be occurring down to our southwest. Anyways though looking at some periods of extremely heavy rainfall tomorrow so some flooding is a sure bet. Winds aloft not as crazy as they were on Friday but still fairly strong...pretty good inversion in place (as there usually is) should keep much of them from reaching the ground. Do have to watch though for any convection to try and bring some of the stronger winds down but perhaps the strongest winds occur just as the front is passing and moves through. Don't think there's any severe threat here... but there is an interesting threat for flash flooding late tomorrow especially if temperatures can warm more than forecasted and we get a solid slug of elevated thunderstorms. Ice jams, as well, make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ice threat looks pretty minimal tomorrow in CT... problem is the timing might suck with an hour or two of light ZR in the middle of the AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Don't think there's any severe threat here... but there is an interesting threat for flash flooding late tomorrow especially if temperatures can warm more than forecasted and we get a solid slug of elevated thunderstorms. Ice jams, as well, make things interesting. Yeah the severe wx threat here is virtually minimal...maybe some strong convective gusts. It wouldn't shock me if overnight we see a brief light period of ZR which could potentially make part of the morning commute interesting but I don't think were going to see much issues with that in CT at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Yeah the severe wx threat here is virtually minimal...maybe some strong convective gusts. It wouldn't shock me if overnight we see a brief light period of ZR which could potentially make part of the morning commute interesting but I don't think were going to see much issues with that in CT at least. Yeah agreed about ice.... wind gusts won't be very exciting either with one hell of an inversion. The interesting thing is going to be if we can get into elevated convection like the NAM shows and get into a flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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