A-L-E-X Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_204m.gif Haha coolness I love those east-west changeover lines much more than the north-south ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_204m.gif Most of that is rain that falls before the column cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Haha coolness I love those east-west changeover lines much more than the north-south ones Interesting to see the GFS sport the idea of a wave developing along an arctic front run after run. It has a ton of rain initially on this run pre-truncation. We'll have to see what it looks like in the next couple runs when the entire event is inside of 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Most of that is rain that falls before the column cools. No way...really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Most of that is rain that falls before the column cools. Yeah, I realized that when I saw the snow accumulation map on raleighwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm grasping for straws as winter time expires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I think that was their record low...or at least they came within shouting distance of it IIRC. Not sure since I didn't pay close attention, but I thought it was their worst ever. A large portion of Quebec had no snow on the ground in March which is unheard of for them. The 2/25 storm last year to appreciate this thread's title was the worst storm of my life almost. Probably the only time in my lifetime I will ever see NYC get 20" of snow while I get all rain. (2/24 is counted in the totals which is bogus....totally separate event....I got 11.5" of paste from that) High elevation FTW. 4.5" of the wettest snow of my life in that. Just an absolute DISASTER to shovel/ Feb 2010 was horrible here, but fascinating to watch play out. I remember reading the mid Atlantic threads on feb 6 and feb 10, nyc on feb 25 etc.. Feb 2010=fail month feb 10----> 3" off of 6-12" forecasted, 2' amounts to the south 2/24--------> 4.5" of crap 2/26--------> 1.5" There were a few other minor events but my 15.2" total for the month when NYC area had 40+" and some areas in DC metro has over 50" is just . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 And we just missed out on 2/6-- we would have had 60 inches of snow that month and 120 inches in the last 12 months had that come 50 miles north. I got a little bit over 2 inches of snow from the 2/6 storm. My cousin in Staten Island received 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Figured I would whip out this gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Figured I would whip out this gem Got any other archived model runs for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Here are some more images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Got any other archived model runs for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Also found an old AFD I wrote for the NYMetro Wx blog New York MetroWeather Technical Forecast Discussion February 25th, 2010 10:01pm Near Term Brief update to all grids as we issued a Blizzard Alert to the west and northwest of the immediate metro. H7 low is near Central Long Island and to the west of that, very strong frontogenic forcing has returned and deformation banding will continue to train over the same areas this evening through at least 06z. The result will be very heavy snowfall rates and rapid accumulation (2-3"/hr), very low visibilities, and high winds, owing to the rapidly strengthening low pressure to our east which is retrograding west towards CT. The rest of the WWA remain unchanged and the previous discussion is below. --- Currently...mesoscale analysis indicative of the severe synoptic setup in place across our forecast area. Deepening low pressure area southeast of Long Island continues to track north/northwestward while strengthening. Aloft...strong H5 trof continues to amplify and phase with a southern stream entity off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The surface low pressure is forecast to continue to deepn this evening as the capture continues. Deep subtropical moisture fetch with couple with strong frontogenic forcing (owing to rapid deepening) to develop areas of heavy banded precipitation through the evening. Precipitation type should continue to transition to all snow across the entire forecast area--slower to occur across eastern sections especially as the surface low pulls northwestward and brings warm air with it. The surface warmth will also lead to some difficulty accumulating snow in these areas east of New York City as well as the city itself until temperatures can drop further this evening. We continued with the sharp cutoff across eastern sections near the coast. Isothermal soundings to nearly 800mb are indicative of a heavy, wet snow event to at least the the city this evening. It's likely that for a period of time the heavier banding and convergence will shift northward before collapsing back southward as the cold conveyor belt develops. Much of the heavier precipitation this afternoon on Long Island was a result of an inverted trof feature--and it was interesting to note the bright banding on radar as a result of melting snow flakes above the sfc layer. Regardless, we expect the redevelopment of banded precipitation by 00-06z Friday. The 18z NAM shows this well with the development of precipitation rates of .25-.35 in/hr. Both new operational NCEP models and hi-res models at 18z show an additional 1.00-1.25" of QPF across the forecast area..especially north and east from North Central to North East New Jersey towards New York City. This lends some support to higher snowfall total amounts, especially in NE and N Central NJ. Frontogenic forcing modeling is strongest across the aforementioned areas through 06z as well. Expecting upwards of 10 inches additional accumulation in some areas...locally higher amounts possible (overnight to mid day accumulations exceeding 15 to 18 inches) in heavier banding. Short Term Snow everywhere by overnight into early Friday as mentioned above with the thermal profiles collapsing amidst upper level low passage. Moderate snowfall may continue across most areas into Friday as the surface low occludes near or over the forecast area. Expected storm total snowfall by Friday evening: North-Central/Northeast NJ and SE NY elevated areas: 14-19" North-Central/Northeast NJ and SE NY: 12-16" Central New Jersey: 10-15" New York City Metro: 7-13" Western Long Island and SW CT: 6-10" Central Long Island: 4-7" Eastern Long Island: 1-4" We held all the WWA as is including wording and configuration--these may need some adjustment with the afternoon package but we will reassess as necessary when that time comes around. For now we continue with mesoscale tracking and updates so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 John, your forecast busted-- but it was a happy bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 John, your forecast busted-- but it was a happy bust Yeah--it wasn't a pretty in some sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Here's the NAM's QPF for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yeah--it wasn't a pretty in some sections Chris would say "if it was a few degrees colder...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Here's the NAM's QPF for that event. Wow talk about overdone. For me that forecasted 3+ inches of QPF and yet I only got 8 inches of snow (granted there was some rain at the beginning before the changeover but still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wiki article on the storm (they have them on all the big snowstorms from last winter.): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_25–27,_2010_North_American_blizzard The February 25–27, 2010 North American blizzard was a winter storm and severe weather event that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions of the United States between February 24–26, 2010. This was the fourth major snowstorm of the season for some of these areas, and the third storm in February (See February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard, February 9–10, 2010 North American blizzard). The storm dropped its heaviest snow of 12 to 24 inches (30 to 61 cm) (locally as much as 36 inches (91 cm)) across a wide area of interior New England, New York, and Pennsylvania. The storm also brought flooding rains to coastal sections of New England, with some areas experiencing as much as 4 inches (10 cm). Aside from precipitation, high winds were experienced throughout the areas affected, with sustained winds at or above tropical storm force (39 mph (63 km/h)) in many areas, and the highest gusts exceeding 60 mph (97 km/h).[1] This storm was a complex combination of multiple systems, including an upper air low from the northern Great Plains states, and a surface low from the Gulf Coast states. As the surface low tracked northeast from the coast of North Carolina, the upper air low transferred its energy to it, eventually enabling the new storm to undergo rapid intensification near the shore of eastern Long Island. A strong blocking regime of high pressure over the Canadian Maritime provinces prevented the storm system from exiting to the east. This resulted in a cutoff low (not influenced by the predominant jet stream currents), which took a highly unusual track, retrograding west into New York state before looping back out to sea.[2] ...... and this little gem at the end "Snowicane" controversy Prior to the storm the Accuweather forecast called for winds gusting to 70 mph (110 km/h) in some locations and predicted that coastal flooding and power outages would occur. They used words such as "hurricane-like conditions" and "snowicane" to describe the upcoming event. The National Weather Service forecast called for less severe conditions. National Weather Service meteorologist Craig Evanego said the use of these terms was not responsible, could lead to panic and noted that "snowicane" was not in the glossary of meteorology. The Weather Channel called the use of the term "bad meteorology". Accuweather defended the use of the terms, saying their forecasts are geared toward the general public and these terms were used to make the event more understandable to them. It was also noted that the barometric pressure would be equivalent to that of a Category 2 hurricane.[ I agree with what the NWS said but The Weather Channel calling it "bad meteorology" is the pot calling the kettle black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 While that storm was a very good one; but anyone who experiences 12-26 will say: NOTHING like that one, except, of course, Alex's favorite storm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 My favorite storm is still January 1996, although 12/26 is up there also-- definite top 5. My top 6 includes Jan 1996, PD2, Feb 1983, 12/26/10 and 1/26/11 2/26/10.... funny how 4,5,6 all occurred in a 12 month period lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Whoever wrote those wiki articles on those snowstorms did a great job, they even mentioned the 32" in parts of NJ on 12/26/10 and even talked about the HPC "convective feedback issue" 48 hrs prior to the storm and the 961mb pressure. However the snowfall accumulation maps leave a lot to be desired. It mentions the totals are "interpolated"-- never a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 My favorite storm is still January 1996, although 12/26 is up there also-- definite top 5. My top 6 includes Jan 1996, PD2, Feb 1983, 12/26/10 and 1/26/11 2/26/10.... funny how 4,5,6 all occurred in a 12 month period lol. Dec 26 was only an 18 hour storm.... add 6 more hours..... For me, its a tie really. Acutally hell, no, its beats Jan 1996 for me. SAFE TO SAY! those incredible snow rates and winds have me in a heart of love. Then again, maybe duration wise..... Safe to say, John would have gotten about three feet from Dec 26, I would have exceeded 30", you would have surpassed 25". My friend Down the Jersey Shore (Wall NJ, about W of Belmar by 10 miles told me got around 34.5". Co-tied for the area are Jan 96 and Dec 2010. Impact was insane over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Whoever wrote those wiki articles on those snowstorms did a great job, they even mentioned the 32" in parts of NJ on 12/26/10 and even talked about the HPC "convective feedback issue" 48 hrs prior to the storm and the 961mb pressure. However the snowfall accumulation maps leave a lot to be desired. It mentions the totals are "interpolated"-- never a good idea. Totals were 100% LEGIT... Elizabeth's 31.8" and John's 30.5" are 100% believeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Wow talk about overdone. For me that forecasted 3+ inches of QPF and yet I only got 8 inches of snow (granted there was some rain at the beginning before the changeover but still). Checking the date...those numbers may have included some of the numbers in the rain event about 2 days before the snowicane itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Checking the date...those numbers may have included some of the numbers in the rain event about 2 days before the snowicane itself. . It was all from the snowcaine; we were supposed to get 3 plus QPF, I will never forget the GFS also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Totals were 100% LEGIT... Elizabeth's 31.8" and John's 30.5" are 100% believeable. Oh I know those are-- but that map has 10" for this area which was just LOL. We got 18.5" here on 12/26/10 and 16.5" on 1/26/11. Wiki lists the 1/11/11 storm and even mentions that although NYC got 9.2" that parts of Long Island got 15-20" They even mentioned Edison, NJ's 10.8" Who writes this stuff lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Holy ****, some place in Mass got 40.5" in 1/11/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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