1 year ago

[Guest Pamela]

I doubt were in a "little ice age" again....but maybe we are entering it. Nobody knows for sure. But assuming we aren't, we probably are entering a -NAO decadal cycle....but that in itself doesn't mean NYC will avg a ton of snow. The 1960s were great but during that -NAO regime they didn't avg more than 30" on a 20 year mean ever...William might appreciate this but recently on Steve Goddard's website he posted blurbs from the late 1700s and early 1800s on how PHL and DCA received big snow droughts via Thomas Jefferson's notes....how winters "used to be much more severe 20 years ago"...and I'm sure we can apply that to NYC as well. It goes in cycles. We all know about the 1770s and how severe it was on the east coast, but it seemed to relax quite a bit before Tambora in 1815 and then we went into a deep freeze again.

One can go as far north as Portland Maine and still not be assured of a snowy winter every year...their mean may be in the 70's...but some years are as low as the 40's. Caribou is far enough north and close to the general track of lows across S. Canada to see good snows every year...and most Lake Effect towns get good #'s most every year...cold air will cross the lake, hook or crook...and throw in the mountains...but most other spots...there is year to year variability.

[nzucker]

One can go as far north as Portland Maine and still not be assured of a snowy winter every year...their mean may be in the 70's...but some years are as low as the 40's. Caribou is far enough north and close to the general track of lows across S. Canada to see good snows every year...and most Lake Effect towns get good #'s most every year...cold air will cross the lake, hook or crook...and throw in the mountains...but most other spots...there is year to year variability.

Even Caribou got screwed last year with the massive -NAO and strong Niño?

How much snow did they get in total?

I don't believe Caribou has had a month with below average temperatures since Fall 2009..

[ORH_wxman]

I doubt we're in a Little Ice Age, too, since I think anthropogenic factors will balance out the natural forcings pointed towards cooling. I think our climate will remain pretty similar for the next thirty years unless we see a major volcanic eruption, maybe we'll have a slight cooling and increase in snowfall from the intensifying solar minimum. I do believe the combination of -NAO/-AO/-PDO/low solar will be fruitful for the coastal plain in terms of snowfall averages and large snowstorms. We haven't seen a cycle like this since the early 1800s so it'll be interesting to observe what its effects truly are, if they can be detected on such short timescales and with limited scientific data for comparative purposes back then.

I know the 1790s had some of the mildest winters ever in the East with people swimming in the Delaware in PHL one January. That was the end of a long solar maximum, right before the Dalton Minimum began. The combination of the declining solar activity, multiple eruptions in the 1810s including the cataclysmic Tambora, caused big winters to reappear. 1816-1817 was one of the harshest winters in our area ever recorded.

The Dalton Min was pretty severe for the east. Interestingly enough it had one of the biggest solar flares on record in 1859 which if occurred today would be horrific in our modern technology.

But cold and snowy winter have been quite cyclical. We are probably headed into a cold/snowy cycle right now but that doesn;t mean we cannot get a curveball thrown at us and see a horrible torch period of winters either. Climo does funny things.

If Tambora happened again today, we'd all be in a huge world of hurt. That year is still the biggest famine in history after 1800. The crops all failed in the northern hemisphere in North America and Europe. Global cooling is actually a bad thing despite all the hysteria...but that is for the climate forum on further discussion.

[ORH_wxman]

One can go as far north as Portland Maine and still not be assured of a snowy winter every year...their mean may be in the 70's...but some years are as low as the 40's. Caribou is far enough north and close to the general track of lows across S. Canada to see good snows every year...and most Lake Effect towns get good #'s most every year...cold air will cross the lake, hook or crook...and throw in the mountains...but most other spots...there is year to year variability.

Portland is another area that has been a "snow drought" despite this year's decent numbers and also '07-'08. They really screwed the pooch in the 90s and early 2000s.

But climo will get them back. The lowest total I've seen IMBY in the "snowy" ORH hills is 24.9" in 1994-1995....a complete unmitigated disaster of a winter. Worst winter of my life barely worse than '88-'89 here in my book.

[Guest Pamela]

Even Caribou got screwed last year with the massive -NAO and strong Niño?

How much snow did they get in total?

I don't believe Caribou has had a month with below average temperatures since Fall 2009..

Did the arithmetic from their website and came to 70.3" on the 2009-10 season...with exceptionally low #'s from Feb to April....an awful season, by their standards.

[SnowGoose69]

Portland is another area that has been a "snow drought" despite this year's decent numbers and also '07-'08. They really screwed the pooch in the 90s and early 2000s.

But climo will get them back. The lowest total I've seen IMBY in the "snowy" ORH hills is 24.9" in 1994-1995....a complete unmitigated disaster of a winter. Worst winter of my life barely worse than '88-'89 here in my book.

Thats another winter much like 01-02 that I just cannot figure out what went wrong ( most forecasts predicted it to be snowy and cold)...the NAO was obviously positive for I believe the most days of any winter on record but it was not necessarily as positive as it was in 93-94....it was not a very strong El Nino either, my guess is the EPO and PNA were brutal.

[ORH_wxman]

Thats another winter much like 01-02 that I just cannot figure out what went wrong ( most forecasts predicted it to be snowy and cold)...the NAO was obviously positive for I believe the most days of any winter on record but it was not necessarily as positive as it was in 93-94....it was not a very strong El Nino either, my guess is the EPO and PNA were brutal.

The pacific was about as bad as you can get in '94-'95 for east coast cold and snow. Even the mountains of NNE were not immune and it was a complete disaster there too.

[ORH_wxman]

Did the arithmetic from their website and came to 70.3" on the 2009-10 season...with exceptionally low #'s from Feb to April....an awful season, by their standards.

I think that was their record low...or at least they came within shouting distance of it IIRC. Not sure since I didn't pay close attention, but I thought it was their worst ever. A large portion of Quebec had no snow on the ground in March which is unheard of for them.

The 2/25 storm last year to appreciate this thread's title was the worst storm of my life almost. Probably the only time in my lifetime I will ever see NYC get 20" of snow while I get all rain. (2/24 is counted in the totals which is bogus....totally separate event....I got 11.5" of paste from that)

[Guest Pamela]

I agree that previous stretch was quite brutal....but it could happen again in a heart beat. And it will....its just a matter of time. The good times I think are here to stay for now, but there's no guarantee....again...climo. It always comes back to haunt us when we are at our high.

You take what took place in DC last winter...again, climo evening things out...they were so far below normal over the last 20 years...it was like a dam waiting to burst...one really good winter and gaps in the averages start to fade.

[Guest Pamela]

I think that was their record low...or at least they came within shouting distance of it IIRC. Not sure since I didn't pay close attention, but I thought it was their worst ever. A large portion of Quebec had no snow on the ground in March which is unheard of for them.

The 2/25 storm last year to appreciate this thread's title was the worst storm of my life almost. Probably the only time in my lifetime I will ever see NYC get 20" of snow while I get all rain. (2/24 is counted in the totals which is bogus....totally separate event....I got 11.5" of paste from that)

I have a book with Caribou snow data...unfortunately I just purchased a new bookcase...took all the old books off the old shelves and put them in plastic bags...and haven't gotten 'round to taking them out and putting them up on the new 'case.

[Guest Pamela]

The 2/25 storm last year to appreciate this thread's title was the worst storm of my life almost. Probably the only time in my lifetime I will ever see NYC get 20" of snow while I get all rain. (2/24 is counted in the totals which is bogus....totally separate event....I got 11.5" of paste from that)

Pretty rare setup...I think the March 1914 event had some similarities.

[Guest Pamela]

Not they arent...William said it best: "You can't fight climo"....same as my "Climo is a b**ch" statement. I just put it in harsher terms. The 1980s and 1970s are a reason the climo is what it is...we can cherry pick the great times and pretend they are the real climo, but no matter how much you try to, none of us can control the weather and climo will win in the end. If we only counted the 1960s, 1990s, and 2000s then NYC would avg 35" per year and BOS would avg 50" per year. But I doubt anyone near NYC would want to say BOS averages 50" per year at logan airport justlike they do not want to admit that Central Park averages about 26-27" per year.

Same as in baseball...you can't throw out his first 100 ab's because they were lousy and say..."well he would have hit .300 if not for April"....we count the whole season and the whole record. Parcells said it best: "You are what your record says you are."

[tson96]

[MJO812]

Dec 26 > Feb 25

I agree 100 percent.

For my area of northern Queens, best storm was Jan.26-27, 2011. 18"+ with insane snow rates.

And sickest part was 6 lightning strikes with loud thunder all within 15 mins. Overall, had 9 lightning strikes for the storm.

Stunning storm for my area.

Radar image at 1am over all of NYC was one of sickest radar images ever.

I didn't see any lightning in that storm. I agree with the snowfall rates. They were amazing with that storm. My area received 4 inches from the 1st wave and 14 from the main wave at night.

Three things...

1. I remember it was the 84 hour NAM (correct me if I'm wrong) that showed NYC seeing Snow while New England saw rain... I remember that scenario being met with scoffs y the New England thread.

2. I was stuck at 40 degrees and Rain in Hanover, NH, while NYC was Heavy Snow... Of course, that never happened when I could have used the snowday in NYC...

At first, alot of models were showing this storm retrogading into NNE. As days went on, the track went further and further to the south. The track then went into Philly and then into NYC. Finally, the track was just to the north of NYC and retrogaded around the city. What an amazing track and storm. A lot of mets were saying that there was no way that NYC was going to see a lot of snow with that track.

December 30, 2000 was another storm which gave NYC and northern NJ a MECS while Boston got heavy rain. Doesn't happen often, but when it does...

12 inches from that storm

Yeah, February 2010 was a hellish month for SNE. All three KU's really screwed Boston painfully.

40 inches in my area. Imagine if this February was snowy. Some areas around NYC would be pushing 100 inches.

[Ace]

I got to admit that in my area in eastern Bergen County, New Jersey, the Feb 25-26, 2010 snowicane was better than the boxing day blizzard. The boxing day blizzard was an incredible storm with incredible winds, but during the first half of the storm, the banding really parked itself over Earthlight's house and did not miss my area by much. This lead to me only receiving 17 inches of snow for the total amount. In the Snowicane, I was in the good banding for a longer period of time and received close to 23 inches of snow. The wind was also impressive in this storm. Regardless, these two storms have spots in my top five favorite snowstorms of all time.

[paulyd]

this was a hell of a storm indeed.

[Chris L]

I got to admit that in my area in eastern Bergen County, New Jersey, the Feb 25-26, 2010 snowicane was better than the boxing day blizzard. The boxing day blizzard was an incredible storm with incredible winds, but during the first half of the storm, the banding really parked itself over Earthlight's house and did not miss my area by much. This lead to me only receiving 17 inches of snow for the total amount. In the Snowicane, I was in the good banding for a longer period of time and received close to 23 inches of snow. The wind was also impressive in this storm. Regardless, these two storms have spots in my top five favorite snowstorms of all time.

You got more than 17" of snow from Dec 26th..

What town are you in?

[A-L-E-X]

It probably was the closest storm NYC's had to 1888 in a long time. The heaviest snow axis was in a similar area, and the occlusion/retrograding low was also similar. 1888 might have been a bit further east with the heavy snow, since very heavy amounts also made it into CT and Long Island, but when it was snowing here last 2/25 it was an amazing sight. The wind combined with the snow from around 2-6am on the 26th was incredible. The snow was a very wet consistency, but still blew around as if it was a regular blizzard. Boston being all rain was also a slight bit of consolation, not gonna lie.

Even Middlebury, VT where I was attending college was all rain...I drove home in the wee hours to see the storm in Westchester and was so thankful for my decision. Some of the higher elevations of VT switched to snow towards the storm's end/occlusion, but it was tremendous to see Central Park reporting heavy snow while Burlington reported rain at like 34F. I scarcely can imagine what would have happened if we'd had more of an arctic airmass in place, but I guess that's the game you play with strong El Niño winters.

That was the anti-new england storm as the storm seemed to "know" the borders and flipped over to rain as soon as you got into New England.

JM, I remember when we were worried if we would get into the very heavy snow bands, but they did not disapppoint. It wasnt classified as a blizzard but it was closest to a blizzard of any storm last winter and we picked up a foot or more in about 6 hours that night and drifts two to three times that.

[A-L-E-X]

I agree 100 percent.

I didn't see any lightning in that storm. I agree with the snowfall rates. They were amazing with that storm. My area received 4 inches from the 1st wave and 14 from the main wave at night.

At first, alot of models were showing this storm retrogading into NNE. As days went on, the track went further and further to the south. The track then went into Philly and then into NYC. Finally, the track was just to the north of NYC and retrogaded around the city. What an amazing track and storm. A lot of mets were saying that there was no way that NYC was going to see a lot of snow with that track.

12 inches from that storm

40 inches in my area. Imagine if this February was snowy. Some areas around NYC would be pushing 100 inches.

And we just missed out on 2/6-- we would have had 60 inches of snow that month and 120 inches in the last 12 months had that come 50 miles north.

[Chris L]

And we just missed out on 2/6-- we would have had 60 inches of snow that month and 120 inches in the last 12 months had that come 50 miles north.

That's not the point, really.

Here's my hypothetical case: Had we had colder air for February 2010 AND Feb 6 hit us:

Feb 6 2010: 20-30"

Feb 10, 2010: 20-30" (Upton went bonkers with snow amounts, but we did not have too much cold air).

February 25-26 2010: 24-36"

Add em up... We could have had easily 4 feet of snow on the ground like Pasadena Maryland did.

[A-L-E-X]

That's not the point, really.

Here's my hypothetical case: Had we had colder air for February 2010 AND Feb 6 hit us:

Feb 6 2010: 20-30"

Feb 10, 2010: 20-30" (Upton went bonkers with snow amounts, but we did not have too much cold air).

February 25-26 2010: 24-36"

Add em up... We could have had easily 4 feet of snow on the ground like Pasadena Maryland did.

I agree, and my actual point is it is possible for NYC to get 100 inches of snow in a season, given the right conditions that exist for a long enough time.

[Chris L]

I agree, and my actual point is it is possible for NYC to get 100 inches of snow in a season, given the right conditions that exist for a long enough time.

I agree with that, 100" would have been done this year as well; if we got that crazy storm that North Haven and New Haven got this past January 11-12th, basically, 20-30"

H500 low didn't dig far south enough for us.

[Sampson]

Does anyone have the full radar loop with the snow/rain line? I thought I had it saved, but sadly this is the only one I could find. One heck of an hour though.

[Sundog]

I agree, and my actual point is it is possible for NYC to get 100 inches of snow in a season, given the right conditions that exist for a long enough time.

In a perfect season, ala this year only extended out through the end of March, we could easily clip 100 inches.

[RutgersWx92]

Just in case this makes you feel any better, the January storm that happened a month ago brought about 14" of snow at my home, but I was at college since it was during the week, and it's located right near DC. I saw 4-5" of slop from that storm, while better areas just a few miles away got 8", and my home town got over a foot. The fact that temps were marginal really mattered.

So I basically missed the only MECS of the season

Yeah that sucks. The gradient with the 12/26 storm was absolutely insane and so frustrating. That deformation band literally stopped JUST to my east and sat there for hours. Here in New Brunswick where I normally am 20+ inches fell, but back home where I was which is only about 25 minutes (~15 miles) away, I only got about 9''. Heck, Scotch Plains (which is only about 25 minutes away from me, or about 18 miles) got 30.5''! That's a 21.5'' gradient over a distance of about 18 miles.

The incredible amount of snow we got afterwards kind of made up for it though (with the 15 inches with lightning and thunder on 1/26-27 topping it off ).

[Chris L]

Yeah that sucks. The gradient with the 12/26 storm was absolutely insane and so frustrating. That deformation band literally stopped JUST to my east and sat there for hours. Here in New Brunswick where I normally am 20+ inches fell, but back home where I was which is only about 25 minutes (~15 miles) away, I only got about 9''. Heck, Scotch Plains (which is only about 25 minutes away from me, or about 18 miles) got 30.5''! That's a 21.5'' gradient over a distance of about 18 miles.

The incredible amount of snow we got afterwards kind of made up for it though (with the 15 inches with lightning and thunder on 1/26-27 topping it off ).

This will not help you, Jimmy, but.... South Plainfield got 28" from December 26, 2010; which is closer to Bridgewater. Insane gradient.

[RutgersWx92]

This will not help you, Jimmy, but.... South Plainfield got 28" from December 26, 2010; which is closer to Bridgewater. Insane gradient.

Wow, almost a 20 inch gradient over the course of about 13 miles.

[Fozz]

Yeah that sucks. The gradient with the 12/26 storm was absolutely insane and so frustrating. That deformation band literally stopped JUST to my east and sat there for hours. Here in New Brunswick where I normally am 20+ inches fell, but back home where I was which is only about 25 minutes (~15 miles) away, I only got about 9''. Heck, Scotch Plains (which is only about 25 minutes away from me, or about 18 miles) got 30.5''! That's a 21.5'' gradient over a distance of about 18 miles.

The incredible amount of snow we got afterwards kind of made up for it though (with the 15 inches with lightning and thunder on 1/26-27 topping it off ).

Ouch. That really sucks, and it shows how important it is to be in the bands. I remember in February 2006, a friend of mine told me he got 8" of snow, while areas 5 miles SW of me got up to 22" of snow. I was right in between, with 15", but again the gradient was insane and painful for those who missed the heavy stuff. And recently Chris L reminded me that on Feb 5-6 last year, those same areas 5 miles from me got 32" while I got 25". I was slightly disappointed but 2 feet of snow is still nothing to complain about.

As for the January storm, I did go home on Friday afternoon to see the foot of snow that fell, and it still plastered the trees and just about everything. It was one of the most wonderful sights that I've seen.

[A-L-E-X]

Ouch. That really sucks, and it shows how important it is to be in the bands. I remember in February 2006, a friend of mine told me he got 8" of snow, while areas 5 miles SW of me got up to 22" of snow. I was right in between, with 15", but again the gradient was insane and painful for those who missed the heavy stuff. And recently Chris L reminded me that on Feb 5-6 last year, those same areas 5 miles from me got 32" while I got 25". I was slightly disappointed but 2 feet of snow is still nothing to complain about.

As for the January storm, I did go home on Friday afternoon to see the foot of snow that fell, and it still plastered the trees and just about everything. It was one of the most wonderful sights that I've seen.

Feb 2006--- NYC got 27" JFK got 17" (20 miles from NYC) and Im 3.87 miles from JFK and I got 13 inches.

[H2Otown_WX]

The 2/25 storm last year to appreciate this thread's title was the worst storm of my life almost. Probably the only time in my lifetime I will ever see NYC get 20" of snow while I get all rain. (2/24 is counted in the totals which is bogus....totally separate event....I got 11.5" of paste from that)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204m.gif