1 year ago

[Guest Pamela]

Becket is a great spot for snow....basically a northern extension of your Norfolk, CT fetish.

They get a lot of "rotting lake effect" upslope there. I've driven by there after an upslope LES event where everyone else was clear skies or partly cloudy with flurries and seen 6" of fresh fluff on the ground and wondered how the hell they got it.

Two things prevented the purchase...the roads to the house were not paved and there was only one store nearby..."The Price Chopper".

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, Western NY is more susceptible to torches without CAD than areas further east. I've found that the Adirondack valleys and also the hill country near Glens Falls holds the cold the best in NY State. It's easy to scour out the cold air in Syracuse in Rochester when you have a cutter, whereas eastern NY and SNE benefits from more terrain protection in these situations. I've really seen temperatures skyrocket out there in torches...I think ROC hit 88F early last April in the torch whereas we struggled to 80F in Vermont.

I'd hate to live in Elmira or one of those areas with low elevation in central NY. You don't do well on coastals because you're too far west, you don't do well on SW flow events because you're too far south, you don't do well on clippers because you're too far south. Everything out there is just 1-3" windex events and the occasional coaster hugger, which has become a rare breed these days. I'd much rather live near NYC and have a shot at big snowfalls than those areas, the excitement here is great when you see a big Nor'easter coming, it's one of the reasons I love this area for winter. We're also averaging a lot of snow recently...about 60" per season since 08-09 and probably 45"/season since 02-03. They've suffered some snow droughts near BGM and Elmira this decade whereas we've cashed in.

The worm will soon turn in BGM and same in NYC....its been a great run, but I'd much rather live in BGM for snow than NYC....though Elmira is ugly. BGM is a very snowy area actually...they do well on multi-band LES events whereas Elmira is too far west for those most of that time.

Times are good, but even with the NAO decadal cycle in our favor, I won't be surprised if there's a very ugly period for I-95. Climo has a funny way of evening the stakes when you least expect it. (i.e. everyone expects the winters to rock for the near future and then we see a couple total clunkers while BGM is getting 100")...its just the way it works. BOS last year is a great example which gets overlooked. Amazing blocking and juiced up STJ Nino and BOS gets dicked? Almost unheard of but it happened last year because of a combo of bad luck and the strength of the blocking. Same thing will happen in NYC soon and other areas on the east coast. As I like to say when I'm getting screwed "climo is a b**ch"

[Guest Pamela]

Becket is a great spot for snow....basically a northern extension of your Norfolk, CT fetish.

That whole area from NW CT to southern VT is sort of a quasi-plateau...I've read theories that being on a plateau is even more snow inducing than being on a mountain...

[ORH_wxman]

Two things prevented the purchase...the roads to the house were not paved and there was only one store nearby..."The Price Chopper".

Its too bad you didn't get it....then I could have a reliable person to discredit skiMRG's inflated snowfall reports.

[Guest Pamela]

As I like to say when I'm getting screwed "climo is a b**ch"

Or, as I often say, "You can't fight climatology."

Strongly agree with the assertions you make. Things have a way of evening out...often when you least expect it.

[Guest Pamela]

Its too bad you didn't get it....then I could have a reliable person to discredit skiMRG's inflated snowfall reports.

Did he pass 200" yet? Haven't been keeping up with the SNE forum...

[nzucker]

The worm will soon turn in BGM and same in NYC....its been a great run, but I'd much rather live in BGM for snow than NYC....though Elmira is ugly. BGM is a very snowy area actually...they do well on multi-band LES events whereas Elmira is too far west for those most of that time.

Times are good, but even with the NAO decadal cycle in our favor, I won't be surprised if there's a very ugly period for I-95. Climo has a funny way of evening the stakes when you least expect it. (i.e. everyone expects the winters to rock for the near future and then we see a couple total clunkers while BGM is getting 100")...its just the way it works. BOS last year is a great example which gets overlooked. Amazing blocking and juiced up STJ Nino and BOS gets dicked? Almost unheard of but it happened last year because of a combo of bad luck and the strength of the blocking. Same thing will happen in NYC soon and other areas on the east coast. As I like to say when I'm getting screwed "climo is a b**ch"

If I were going to live in Binghamton, I'd need to be in the higher elevations surrounding the city and not downtown....I'm sure the higher elevations pick up a lot of orographic enhancement on dying lake effect bands as well as doing decently well in some SW flow events since you're far enough east to benefit from some CAD. There's a pretty major difference in the snowfall average at the airport, located at 1600', and downtown which is closer to 1000' elevation. I actually like the Poconos better than BGM for snow because they have a better chance of cashing in on Nor'easters...our house in NE PA is pretty much ideal since it can benefit from a wide variety of storms, including being far enough east for the coastals. There have been some really huge totals out of NE PA in big Nor'easters....they got clocked in Feb/March 1958, December 1992, March 1993, PDII, Snowicane, etc. 57-58 was probably the snowiest winter on record there along with 93-94 perhaps.

I don't know how long I'll be living down here but I think next year could be a good winter if the ENSO models are correct about the weak Niña emerging. We've had a lot of great years in weak Niña and negative-neutral ENSO regimes, especially when the NAO is negative like 95-96 and 66-67. However, I'm a bit worried that the strength of this La Niña has finally broken down the blocking permanently, so we might be better off with a weak Niño to get the NAO/AO back to extremely negative values. A weak Niño is probably the best ENSO state for Dobbs Ferry and Worcester. Although the QBO should be improving next winter, I'd be a bit concerned if we went into another moderate/strong Niña with the potent -PDO, could be time for Binghamton to catch up while NYC gets nothing.

[ORH_wxman]

Or, as I often say, "You can't fight climatology."

Strongly agree with the assertions you make. Things have a way of evening out...often when you least expect it.

One question I've been meaning to ask you....what do you think the snowiest annual avg is on LI? And where is it (can't be too far from you in the hills somewhere)? Do you think anywhere cracks 34 or 35" per year there? I've become more fascinated with the N LI microclimate as time goes on. I remember specifically during the Dec 19, 2008 event how much the N shore cleaned up compared to NYC and everyone else around. Obviously that doesn't represent climo, but it was an event that got me thinking more about the climo there.

[nzucker]

One question I've been meaning to ask you....what do you think the snowiest annual avg is on LI? And where is it (can't be too far from you in the hills somewhere)? Do you think anywhere cracks 34 or 35" per year there? I've become more fascinated with the N LI microclimate as time goes on. I remember specifically during the Dec 19, 2008 event how much the N shore cleaned up compared to NYC and everyone else around. Obviously that doesn't represent climo, but it was an event that got me thinking more about the climo there.

12/19/08 is one of my favorite events...8" fell here with some 35-40dbz banding over Westchester. It was the first decent snowstorm in a long time for my house and began the return towards solid winters.

[Guest Pamela]

its been a great run, but I'd much rather live in BGM for snow than NYC....

Agreed 1000%...particularly up at what was once called Broome County Airport...located just under the stratosphere...winters are extremely severe at the airport....annual snowfall from 80 to 90 inches and *cold*...mean is probably close to a full 10 degrees lower than NYC.

[ORH_wxman]

Did he pass 200" yet? Haven't been keeping up with the SNE forum...

Apparently he's at about 125" but the snow pack pics are little more than 3" or 4" greater than my own despite a 40" advantage (I'm at 84.9") in seasonal snowfall and better snow pack retention than I have. I would have expected snow depth there to be at least 150% of mine and probably closer to 200% given the 40" advantage and better retention. But its merely about 115-120% of mine.

[ORH_wxman]

12/19/08 is one of my favorite events...8" fell here with some 35-40dbz banding over Westchester. It was the first decent snowstorm in a long time for my house and began the return towards solid winters.

William and I laugh at you for that statement....just wait until a mid 1970s or 1980s stretch occurs....you'll think that was a short break.

[nzucker]

William and I laugh at you for that statement....just wait until a mid 1970s or 1980s stretch occurs....you'll think that was a short break.

Yeah I realize how much worse we could have it...I know I've been incredibly fortunate to experience all these great winters in NYC metro like 02-03, 03-04, 09-10, and 10-11.

However, I suffered a lot in middle school...I loved snow back then but things were bleak after the plastering we got in 95-96. That was the first winter that I remembered well so it became a basis for comparison which wasn't a good thing. 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, and 99-00 were all brutally mild here and snowless. We received only 7" of snow in 01-02 as well, for the entire year, insane. I've noticed that we rarely seem to have that type of mild weather anymore, seems like snow being out of the question went on for weeks in the late 90s but now we are generally in the game all the time down here.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I realize how much worse we could have it...I know I've been incredibly fortunate to experience all these great winters in NYC metro like 02-03, 03-04, 09-10, and 10-11.

However, I suffered a lot in middle school...I loved snow back then but things were bleak after the plastering we got in 95-96. That was the first winter that I remembered well so it became a basis for comparison which wasn't a good thing. 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, and 99-00 were all brutally mild here and snowless. We received only 7" of snow in 01-02 as well, for the entire year, insane. I've noticed that we rarely seem to have that type of mild weather anymore, seems like snow being out of the question went on for weeks in the late 90s but now we are generally in the game all the time down here.

2006-2007 and 2007-2008. 3 years can erase the memory quickly.

[nzucker]

2006-2007 and 2007-2008. 3 years can erase the memory quickly.

Even those winters weren't as warm as the late 90s though. 07-08 had a bad storm track for NYC metro, but I remember December as being quite cold, especially around the second week when there was a snowfall and then just before XMAS. March also had a big arctic outbreak with near record low temperatures in SE NY; it was very dry that month though.

06-07 torched early on but February was like -6F at NYC, one of the coldest Februaries in recent memory. That type of cold didn't seem to be in the map in winters like 97-98. NYC also just missed a huge snowstorm in VDay, as the models adjusted northwards at the last minute. It could have been at least a foot.

[Guest Pamela]

One question I've been meaning to ask you....what do you think the snowiest annual avg is on LI? And where is it (can't be too far from you in the hills somewhere)? Do you think anywhere cracks 34 or 35" per year there? I've become more fascinated with the N LI microclimate as time goes on. I remember specifically during the Dec 19, 2008 event how much the N shore cleaned up compared to NYC and everyone else around. Obviously that doesn't represent climo, but it was an event that got me thinking more about the climo there.

My guess is 32 - 33 inches from Port Jeff to about Bayville. Highest amounts would be in the hills a mile or two south of the water, lowest right along the beach. I think snowfall drops off just as you move west of Wantagh Parkway and begin to come into the periphery of NYC urbanization. I use to take meaurements up at Jayne's Hill in Huntington, the high point on L.I. (elevation 401 feet)...and think their average might approach 35".

For November through January, I believe the snowiest spot would be in the vicinity of Upper Brookville / East Norwich. Much of the region is above 200 feet, and it is during the first three months of the cold season that being as far removed from maritime influences as possible is elemental to maximizing snowfall potential around here. Remember the totals approaching 15 inches in Nassau County approaching for the Dec. 30, 2000 storm - and the gradual decrease as one headed east down to a trace at Montauk? This changes subtly from February through the first week of April. By Feb. 1, the water is in the 30's and it's role in warming the atmosphere has diminished. Also, the storm track has shifted a bit to the east by now. It is during these last three months that snowfall maximums begin to show up from about Fort Salonga to as far east as Shoreham. March 3, 2001 was a prime example, as this area saw about 15 inches, while, just to the west, totals dropped off rapidly. The April 9, 1996 storm is also representative of this pattern.

[SnowGoose69]

William and I laugh at you for that statement....just wait until a mid 1970s or 1980s stretch occurs....you'll think that was a short break.

I'm not sure what occurred in the 80s is much more than a 1 in 500 or 1,000 year occurrence....possibly as a whole I could see an overall drought like a 1970-1985....but I don't think Central Park could ever run a 9 year stretch ever again with only one snow event of over 8 inches as they did from 1984-1993....they also went from March 1996 to January 2000 without a 6 inch event...even that is tough to come by, 3 1/2 winters without a 6 inch storm....these droughts do occur in all cities...I know St. Louis did not get an 8 inch event from January 2001 until last year, and thats a rarity even for them.

[Guest Pamela]

William and I laugh at you for that statement....just wait until a mid 1970s or 1980s stretch occurs....you'll think that was a short break.

Hey, I endured the Medieval Warm Period...and lived to tell about it.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not sure what occurred in the 80s is much more than a 1 in 500 or 1,000 year occurrence....possibly as a whole I could see an overall drought like a 1970-1985....but I don't think Central Park could ever run a 9 year stretch ever again with only one snow event of over 8 inches as they did from 1984-1993....they also went from March 1996 to January 2000 without a 6 inch event...even that is tough to come by, 3 1/2 winters without a 6 inch storm....these droughts do occur in all cities...I know St. Louis did not get an 8 inch event from January 2001 until last year, and thats a rarity even for them.

I personally don't think claiming something that happened in the last 30-40 years is a "1 in 1000 year event" is valid argument....I'm quite sure there's actually been worse periods for snowfall than those years since the time the Vikings inhabited Greenland. It was def. bad, but I'm sure it can happen again in a heart beat just like this good run has happened in the early 2000s.

[ORH_wxman]

Even those winters weren't as warm as the late 90s though. 07-08 had a bad storm track for NYC metro, but I remember December as being quite cold, especially around the second week when there was a snowfall and then just before XMAS. March also had a big arctic outbreak with near record low temperatures in SE NY; it was very dry that month though.

06-07 torched early on but February was like -6F at NYC, one of the coldest Februaries in recent memory. That type of cold didn't seem to be in the map in winters like 97-98. NYC also just missed a huge snowstorm in VDay, as the models adjusted northwards at the last minute. It could have been at least a foot.

The power of selective memory can be strong. NYC was above avg in Dec 2007 while BOS was below avg. That was a warm winter down there. It was even warm here but not as warm as there. 2006-2007 had a cold February (March was cold in New England).....but overall those winters were torches. '99-'00 was a torch but happened to have a 4 week stretch that was cold...but it didn't fall in between the month dates (like Jan 12-Feb 12 was very cold).

[nzucker]

I personally don't think claiming something that happened in the last 30-40 years is a "1 in 1000 year event" is valid argument....I'm quite sure there's actually been worse periods for snowfall than those years since the time the Vikings inhabited Greenland. It was def. bad, but I'm sure it can happen again in a heart beat just like this good run has happened in the early 2000s.

NYC had a really rotten run between 1927 and 1932 as well...here are the numbers for seasonal snowfall:

27-28: 14.5"

28-29: 13.8"

29-30: 13.6"

30-31: 11.6"

31-32: 5.3"

The early 50s also sucked:

49-50: 13.8"

50-51: 11.6"

51-52: 19.7"

52-53: 15.1"

53-54: 15.8"

54-55: 11.5"

So I don't think the 1980s are totally unprecedented.

[nzucker]

The power of selective memory can be strong. NYC was above avg in Dec 2007 while BOS was below avg. That was a warm winter down there. It was even warm here but not as warm as there. 2006-2007 had a cold February (March was cold in New England).....but overall those winters were torches. '99-'00 was a torch but happened to have a 4 week stretch that was cold...but it didn't fall in between the month dates (like Jan 12-Feb 12 was very cold).

I'm not arguing that 06-07 and 07-08 weren't warm winters for NYC; they of course were mild. I'm just saying the run from 96-97 to 01-02 was way more brutal....

At least we had like 15" here in 06-07 and 20" in 07-08...97-98 was like 12" and 01-02 was like 7" for the downtown co-op. That was also a longer run of bad winters since we did well in 05-06 and 08-09 which made the two crummy ones in between acceptable.

[ORH_wxman]

So I don't think the 1980s are totally unprecedented.

Not they arent...William said it best: "You can't fight climo"....same as my "Climo is a b**ch" statement. I just put it in harsher terms. The 1980s and 1970s are a reason the climo is what it is...we can cherry pick the great times and pretend they are the real climo, but no matter how much you try to, none of us can control the weather and climo will win in the end. If we only counted the 1960s, 1990s, and 2000s then NYC would avg 35" per year and BOS would avg 50" per year. But I doubt anyone near NYC would want to say BOS averages 50" per year at logan airport justlike they do not want to admit that Central Park averages about 26-27" per year.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not arguing that 06-07 and 07-08 weren't warm winters for NYC; they of course were mild. I'm just saying the run from 96-97 to 01-02 was way more brutal....

At least we had like 15" here in 06-07 and 20" in 07-08...97-98 was like 12" and 01-02 was like 7" for the downtown co-op. That was also a longer run of bad winters since we did well in 05-06 and 08-09 which made the two crummy ones in between acceptable.

I agree that previous stretch was quite brutal....but it could happen again in a heart beat. And it will....its just a matter of time. The good times I think are here to stay for now, but there's no guarantee....again...climo. It always comes back to haunt us when we are at our high.

[nzucker]

Not they arent...William said it best: "You can't fight climo"....same as my "Climo is a b**ch" statement. I just put it in harsher terms. The 1980s and 1970s are a reason the climo is what it is...we can cherry pick the great times and pretend they are the real climo, but no matter how much you try to, none of us can control the weather and climo will win in the end. If we only counted the 1960s, 1990s, and 2000s then NYC would avg 35" per year and BOS would avg 50" per year. But I doubt anyone near NYC would want to say BOS averages 50" per year at logan airport justlike they do not want to admit that Central Park averages about 26-27" per year.

I do wonder though if climo is on the uptick with the last 15 years...I mean we've just had an unprecedented sequence of major snowstorms and snowy winters. With the NAO/AO moving into their negative phase and the solar minimum approaching Dalton levels, could it be possible that we're entering a Little Ice Age climate, especially if the predictions for more volcanic activity in Iceland verify? That might give Central Park the chance to average routinely 35"...I know that NYC often had continuous snow cover during winter in the early 1800s...

[Guest Pamela]

I'm not arguing that 06-07 and 07-08 weren't warm winters for NYC; they of course were mild. I'm just saying the run from 96-97 to 01-02 was way more brutal....

At least we had like 15" here in 06-07 and 20" in 07-08...97-98 was like 12" and 01-02 was like 7" for the downtown co-op. That was also a longer run of bad winters since we did well in 05-06 and 08-09 which made the two crummy ones in between acceptable.

It is no exercise in hyperbole to state that the entire 30 year stretch from 1970 - 2000 was horrendous...outside of '78, '94, and '96...almost every other winter was average or sub-par. Having moved to Long Island in October 1971...well, as the song goes...Nobody knows the trouble I've seen...

[nzucker]

I agree that previous stretch was quite brutal....but it could happen again in a heart beat. And it will....its just a matter of time. The good times I think are here to stay for now, but there's no guarantee....again...climo. It always comes back to haunt us when we are at our high.

I'm sure you know this song:

'Cause when life looks like easy

Street, there is danger at your door.

[Guest Pamela]

I do wonder though if climo is on the uptick with the last 15 years...I mean we've just had an unprecedented sequence of major snowstorms and snowy winters. With the NAO/AO moving into their negative phase and the solar minimum approaching Dalton levels, could it be possible that we're entering a Little Ice Age climate, especially if the predictions for more volcanic activity in Iceland verify? That might give Central Park the chance to average routinely 35"...I know that NYC often had continuous snow cover during winter in the early 1800s...

Having read some literature on the matter in conjunction with what I've observed, I do believe that is within the ambit of possible outcomes...

[ORH_wxman]

I do wonder though if climo is on the uptick with the last 15 years...I mean we've just had an unprecedented sequence of major snowstorms and snowy winters. With the NAO/AO moving into their negative phase and the solar minimum approaching Dalton levels, could it be possible that we're entering a Little Ice Age climate, especially if the predictions for more volcanic activity in Iceland verify? That might give Central Park the chance to average routinely 35"...I know that NYC often had continuous snow cover during winter in the early 1800s...

I doubt were in a "little ice age" again....but maybe we are entering it. Nobody knows for sure. But assuming we aren't, we probably are entering a -NAO decadal cycle....but that in itself doesn't mean NYC will avg a ton of snow. The 1960s were great but during that -NAO regime they didn't avg more than 30" on a 20 year mean ever...William might appreciate this but recently on Steve Goddard's website he posted blurbs from the late 1700s and early 1800s on how PHL and DCA received big snow droughts via Thomas Jefferson's notes....how winters "used to be much more severe 20 years ago"...and I'm sure we can apply that to NYC as well. It goes in cycles. We all know about the 1770s and how severe it was on the east coast, but it seemed to relax quite a bit before Tambora in 1815 and then we went into a deep freeze again.

[nzucker]

I doubt were in a "little ice age" again....but maybe we are entering it. Nobody knows for sure. But assuming we aren't, we probably are entering a -NAO decadal cycle....but that in itself doesn't mean NYC will avg a ton of snow. The 1960s were great but during that -NAO regime they didn't avg more than 30" on a 20 year mean ever...William might appreciate this but recently on Steve Goddard's website he posted blurbs from the late 1700s and early 1800s on how PHL and DCA received big snow droughts via Thomas Jefferson's notes....how winters "used to be much more severe 20 years ago"...and I'm sure we can apply that to NYC as well. It goes in cycles. We all know about the 1770s and how severe it was on the east coast, but it seemed to relax quite a bit before Tambora in 1815 and then we went into a deep freeze again.

I doubt we're in a Little Ice Age, too, since I think anthropogenic factors will balance out the natural forcings pointed towards cooling. I think our climate will remain pretty similar for the next thirty years unless we see a major volcanic eruption, maybe we'll have a slight cooling and increase in snowfall from the intensifying solar minimum. I do believe the combination of -NAO/-AO/-PDO/low solar will be fruitful for the coastal plain in terms of snowfall averages and large snowstorms. We haven't seen a cycle like this since the early 1800s so it'll be interesting to observe what its effects truly are, if they can be detected on such short timescales and with limited scientific data for comparative purposes back then.

I know the 1790s had some of the mildest winters ever in the East with people swimming in the Delaware in PHL one January. That was the end of a long solar maximum, right before the Dalton Minimum began. The combination of the declining solar activity, multiple eruptions in the 1810s including the cataclysmic Tambora, caused big winters to reappear. 1816-1817 was one of the harshest winters in our area ever recorded.