JamieOber Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GFS still ending as snow up here, with some accumulation. The rain is still the big story. With all that cold air still in Canada, I don't know if we are done here in the north with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 The 6z GFS verbatim is basically a potential flash flood to a flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES DESCRIBED ABOVE..QPFS WERE DERIVEDFROM A MEAN BLEND OF MDL AND ENSEMBLE DATA WITH 48HR STORM TOTALQPF ENDING 12Z MON 7 MARCH RANGING BTWN 1-2 INCHES..WHICH IS WELLWITHIN THE GEFS PLUME SPREAD /PERHAPS ON THE LOWER SIDE/.EXPERIENCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS HIER AMTS COULD BELKLY GIVEN SLOW SYS MVMT AND MAGNITUDE OF HVY RAIN PARAMETERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Who has two thumbs and a completely new website to show off? This guy. If you guys don't mind, check out my new baby: www.witf.org New site I designed, built and launched just went through the DNS'. This is Central PA's NPR/PBS station - we also have a magazine and a ton of media services available. It's basically five sites rolled into one. And I've worked 110 hours since Sunday. Time for a beer. (OK, back to the really boring weather we've had for two or so weeks now. All snow's gone, even parking lot piles except a few in grocery store lots there were massive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Who has two thumbs and a completely new website to show off? This guy. If you guys don't mind, check out my new baby: www.witf.org New site I designed, built and launched just went through the DNS'. This is Central PA's NPR/PBS station - we also have a magazine and a ton of media services available. It's basically five sites rolled into one. And I've worked 110 hours since Sunday. Time for a beer. (OK, back to the really boring weather we've had for two or so weeks now. All snow's gone, even parking lot piles except a few in grocery store lots there were massive) Hey....very nice! And thanks for ensuring that the weather made it on the home page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Who has two thumbs and a completely new website to show off? This guy. If you guys don't mind, check out my new baby: www.witf.org New site I designed, built and launched just went through the DNS'. This is Central PA's NPR/PBS station - we also have a magazine and a ton of media services available. It's basically five sites rolled into one. And I've worked 110 hours since Sunday. Time for a beer. (OK, back to the really boring weather we've had for two or so weeks now. All snow's gone, even parking lot piles except a few in grocery store lots there were massive) Hey, stop spamming your site. Looks good. Cold here this morning, down to 12°. Now at 27° after a high around 33-34°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hey....very nice! And thanks for ensuring that the weather made it on the home page. Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Dear lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Thanks guys. Nice and clean site!!! Enjoy you cold one!! Seen the first robin of the year today. Spring is getting closer. Zach Whats the Nam and GFS showing? I have been out of the loop today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I have products up. FLOOD WATCH AWXC PA 10:10 PM THU MAR 3 2011 AWXC IN PENNSYLVANIA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ADAMS, BEDFORD, BERKS, BLAIR, BRADFORD, CAMBRIA, CAMERON, CARBON, CENTRE, CLEARFIELD, CLINTON, COLUMBIA, CUMBERLAND, DAUPHIN, ELK, FAYETTE, FRANKLIN, FULTON, HUNTINGTON, INDIANA, JEFFERSON, JUNITA, LACKAWANNA, LANCASTER, LEBANON, LEHIGH, LYCOMING, MCKEAN, MIFFLIN, MONROE, NORTHHAMPTON, NORTHUMBERLAND, PERRY, PIKE, POTTER, SCHUYLKILL, SNYDER, SOMERSET, SULLIVAN, SUQUEHANNA, TIOGA, UNION, WAYNE, WESTMORELAND, WYOMING, YORK. ...UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING... A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE PLAIN STATES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT INVOLVED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN WITH A LOW FORMING ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED THE WATCH AREA OVER THE LAST WEEK AND WATERWAYS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL, THAT COMBINED WITH THE WET GROUND GIVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ~BRISKO FLOOD WATCH AWXC PA 10:10 PM THU MAR 3 2011 AWXC IN PENNSYLVANIA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ALLEGHENY, ARMSTRONG, BEAVER, BUTLER, CLARION, CRAWFORD, ERIE, FOREST, GREENE, LAWRENCE, MERCER, VENANGO, WASHINGTON, WARREN. ...UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY NIGHT... A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE PLAIN STATES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINING VERY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED THE WATCH AREA OVER THE LAST WEEK AND WATERWAYS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL, THAT COMBINED WITH THE WET GROUND GIVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ~BRISKO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Who has two thumbs and a completely new website to show off? This guy. If you guys don't mind, check out my new baby: www.witf.org New site I designed, built and launched just went through the DNS'. This is Central PA's NPR/PBS station - we also have a magazine and a ton of media services available. It's basically five sites rolled into one. And I've worked 110 hours since Sunday. Time for a beer. (OK, back to the really boring weather we've had for two or so weeks now. All snow's gone, even parking lot piles except a few in grocery store lots there were massive) Nice. How about this one. www.analystwxcast.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 The NAM basically stalls the front out and trains thunderstorms/HVY rain right through NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Nice and clean site!!! Enjoy you cold one!! Seen the first robin of the year today. Spring is getting closer. Zach Whats the Nam and GFS showing? I have been out of the loop today? We live near a stream so we see a few robins all winter. They hang near water, the ones who stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Nice. How about this one. www.analystwxcast.org You have a nice site also!! Thanks for the storm info.guys Jamie I didn't know that robins was around all year. Thanks Starting to see some starlings around also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You have a nice site also!! Thanks for the storm info. Thank you. Been working hard. Made over 70 graphics in last 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You have a nice site also!! Thanks for the storm info.guys Jamie I didn't know that robins was around all year. Thanks Starting to see some starlings around also. Yeah, the hanger-ons are rare and I some winters I don't see any. I saw one in January on Penn State campus where I guess the underground pipes create enough heat to melt the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The Euro and NAM are kind of interesting snow-wise with the last part of this storm. CTP has this: THE 8H TEMPS IN THIS SLOWER SCENARIO WILL DIP INTO THE SUB-ZERORANGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR NW...AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHTHOURS ON SUNDAY IN THE ALLEGHENIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD SEE A TURNTO MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR EVEN TWO-THIRDS OF THEFCST AREA. THIS WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...AND QPF FROM BOTH THE ECMWFAND NAME AFTER THE CHANGE - ESP SUN NIGHT - WOULD BE ENOUGH TOMAKE AN ADVISORY SNOWFALL. WILL MENTION SNOW IN THE FCST...BUTHOLD OFF ON ANY DETAILS...AS THE BOUT OF MOD-HEAVY RAIN AND POSSFLOODING WILL OCCUR FIRST. THIS SYSTEM HAS LOTS OF MOISTURE TOINGEST AND PLENTY OF TIME TO DEEPEN THE STORM. ALL SAID...THISSTORM WILL PRESENT A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING...THAT IS A WIDEVARIETY OF WEATHER TO DEAL WITH.&& HPC map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I got my boat ready, anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 So it looks like we have two camps... GFS -- Progressive, gone quickly NAM, ECM?, CMC -- Slow/stall, training storms The SREFs appear to be mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 So it looks like we have two camps... GFS -- Progressive, gone quickly NAM, ECM?, CMC -- Slow/stall, training storms The SREFs appear to be mixed. More like me got one camp and one outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I got my boat ready, anyone else? Now take 50% off of those qpf totals..... nam is outta control as usual with precip. 1 to 2 inches looks like a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Now take 50% off of those qpf totals..... nam is outta control as usual with precip. 1 to 2 inches looks like a good bet I don't know about that. I say 1.5-2.5" is a good bet for most with locally 3-4" This is a long duration stalled out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Now take 50% off of those qpf totals..... nam is outta control as usual with precip. 1 to 2 inches looks like a good bet What's your thoughts on snow at the end of this? Advisory numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The GFS is clueless. I mean the Nogaps show the same solution as the Nam... THE NOGAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's shifting west each run. 0Z 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What's your thoughts on snow at the end of this? Advisory numbers? I could see a stripe of 2-4" between I-99 and Rte 119. If the nam is to be believed, parts of the northern mtns would see warning snow. But I think this is overdone too. Maybe add 10-20% onto the euro qpf. and that seems reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 NOGAPS a solid 1.5-2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Walked into class this morning and there is still snowcover in the woods north of campus. A large area that is about 75% covered. Perfectly oriented and shaded slopes still have 4-6" in many places. January 6 - March 4 is a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I could see a stripe of 2-4" between I-99 and Rte 119. If the nam is to be believed, parts of the northern mtns would see warning snow. But I think this is overdone too. Maybe add 10-20% onto the euro qpf. and that seems reasonable at this point. Thanks Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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