EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 NAM was all over the place this storm...flood watches were posted and even CTP said 1-2 inches were likely...ended with .34" as of now...this was a bust. Ok ya it didn't work out. lol. Western PA wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Seemed to be very localized. Have 0.73 so far, got half an Itch around 1030. Judging by the run off just a bit bit more would have caused problems. If the heavy precip south of pa now would have been more north, then the flooding would have verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 WOW WOW...I just looked at the CMC, which I hate doing because I honestly think its horrible, but it shows one massive storm system from the gulf coast, and it looks like it tries to cutoff from the main flow!! The model is printing off 2-4" of QPF and saying 2 feet for western areas of the great lakes. I doubt this is the solution, as the GFS doesn't show this setup at all, what is the Euro showing. I heard the Euro shows alot of QPF for the storm also??? yeah, appears the Euro has a lot of qpf too. I am rooting for it to change to snow, lol. Still in snow mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 yeah, appears the Euro has a lot of qpf too. I am rooting for it to change to snow, lol. Still in snow mode. me too. my best storm (snow) of the season so far = 5" we usually get one 8-10 inch snowfall so im still rooting on winter. i want my 8-10" snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 me too. my best storm (snow) of the season so far = 5" we usually get one 8-10 inch snowfall so im still rooting on winter. i want my 8-10" snowstorm Yeah, this is my 4th year at PSU and there has only been one storm over 6.5" during that entire stretch. February 5-6, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The setup is decent for a little overrunning on Friday. Nice 1040 High in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 The setup is decent for a little overrunning on Friday. Nice 1040 High in NE I don't normally root for winter storms to wind up as rain but I'm making an exception here. My Spring Break begins Friday and I am not spending the first night stuck on the PSU Hazleton campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011030100/slp.anim.html Rain rain rain. If the 6Z GFS, 0Z CMC, or 0Z Ukmet are right = FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I am fully in Spring mode now....... watch, we'll now have a blizzard and drop 2 feet of snow next week and we won't get on the softball fields till june........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Coming out with some new stuff on our site. Pretty neat stuff. And just cause I love this image so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The Euro is freaking crazy with QPF in what eastern is posting about above. I don't have time to put in exact numbers but they are impressive. Also gives us some snow on the back end up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some of this is snow back here in the mtns. With such a negative tilt and a new wave forming, this could get interesting Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Some of this is snow back here in the mtns. With such a negative tilt and a new wave forming, this could get interesting Sunday evening. Been a lurker on this end of week storm the last few days haha. Considering that the theme this year with most of our events has been a double pronged system I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this evolve.. and I certainly wouldn't rule out the secondary wave potentially causing some wintry issues if the cold presses enough behind the first wave. Whatever the ptype or types end up being, these models have been cranking out a ton of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Some of this is snow back here in the mtns. With such a negative tilt and a new wave forming, this could get interesting Sunday evening. Been a lurker on this end of week storm the last few days haha. Considering that the theme this year with most of our events has been a double pronged system I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this evolve.. and I certainly wouldn't rule out the secondary wave potentially causing some wintry issues if the cold presses enough behind the first wave. Whatever the ptype or types end up being, these models have been cranking out a ton of QPF. Cobb BUFKIT has 8.7 inches at UNV and some really chilly air in it's wake. JST gets crushed with 16.8. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kjst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That is wicked amounts of rain. I was passing by teh susquehanna river today and it is up pretty far. it won't take much to push it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That is wicked amounts of rain. I was passing by teh susquehanna river today and it is up pretty far. it won't take much to push it over. What's really frightening is if central and northern New England gets hit with heavy rainfall amounts...I was just lurking in some of their threads and there are a lot of places with 2'-4' on the ground still with amazing amounts of water in that pack. God help them if they get a storm with 50's and heavy rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 What's really frightening is if central and northern New England gets hit with heavy rainfall amounts...I was just lurking in some of their threads and there are a lot of places with 2'-4' on the ground still with amazing amounts of water in that pack. God help them if they get a storm with 50's and heavy rains... Same goes for a good chunk of Upstate NY. Still 12+ on the ground here just above BGM, and the Adirondacks and parts of the Catskills still have 6"+ of water equivalent locked up in their snowpack. The 12z Euro hit the 'Dacks region with upwards of 4-5" of rain between Friday-Monday. The flood threat is alive and well over a good chunk of NYS and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Same goes for a good chunk of Upstate NY. Still 12+ on the ground here just above BGM, and the Adirondacks and parts of the Catskills still have 6"+ of water equivalent locked up in their snowpack. The 12z Euro hit the 'Dacks region with upwards of 4-5" of rain between Friday-Monday. The flood threat is alive and well over a good chunk of NYS and NE. How much of that is in the Susquehanna river basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How much of that is in the Susquehanna river basin? The Susquehanna River originates in the northern Catskills near Cooperstown in Otsego County. Still upwards of 20" on the ground in the headwater region, with amounts dropping off to 7-8" down toward the central Southern Tier near Waverly where the Sus drops into PA. Here's a map of the River for comparison purposes with the intellicast snow cover map. Lots of fuel still lying on the ground here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Btw...while we're on the subject of flooding, if you ever wondered how you effectively remove an ice jam, then read the bolded below... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1014 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2011 HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion --THE ICE JAM ON THE COHOCTON RIVER NEAR CAMPBELL HAS BROKEN UP AND THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS ENDED. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. IN ADDITION THE RIVER GAGE JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE JAM HAS SHOWN A SHARP DROP IN THE RIVER LEVEL THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMITE AND A BACKHOE HELPED TO BREAK UP THE JAM THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 The Susquehanna River originates in the northern Catskills near Cooperstown in Otsego County. Still upwards of 20" on the ground in the headwater region, with amounts dropping off to 7-8" down toward the central Southern Tier near Waverly where the Sus drops into PA. Here's a map of the River for comparison purposes with the intellicast snow cover map. Lots of fuel still lying on the ground here... Could be an ugly setup for CNY and NEPA if next week's modeling comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Slow day in here. Currently 26° and breezy here in State College. This should be the coldest night for awhile here. Looks like we're headed for a damp and dreary weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Btw...while we're on the subject of flooding, if you ever wondered how you effectively remove an ice jam, then read the bolded below... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1014 PM EST TUE MAR 1 20 HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion --THE ICE JAM ON THE COHOCTON RIVER NEAR CAMPBELL HAS BROKEN UP AND THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS ENDED. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. IN ADDITION THE RIVER GAGE JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE JAM HAS SHOWN A SHARP DROP IN THE RIVER LEVEL THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMITE AND A BACKHOE HELPED TO BREAK UP THE JAM THIS AFTERNOON. I have seen ice jams broken up this way. it takes some nut case to go out on the ice and place the dynamite. anytime dynamite is used it is way cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Cold day forecasted for tomorrow. Forecasted high of 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 For anyone that wants to monitor the Susquehanna River or any river in the BGM cwa, bookmark this site... http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 For anyone that wants to monitor the Susquehanna River or any river in the BGM cwa, bookmark this site... http://water.weather...dex.php?wfo=bgm Thanks, I'll be watching that over the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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