JamieOber Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm sure that would have to break some sort of record? If he meant Canton, PA near Bradford......on March 23? No way. They can get storms like that well into April. Not common but not unheard of either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Okay... I've been pretty outspoken since mid February that winter wasn't over, we'd see more snow even down here in the southern tier counties. Any mets (or others) have any thoughts on what might happen in the day 6-7 timeframe? The pattern just seems ripe to end this year with a BANG... Looks like a good possibility. One thing that supports your thinking, snow and even significant snow is not unheard of into April at MDT. If you go here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ctp and look at NOWData/daily extremes/snowfall for Harrisburg, you see what I mean. I wonder what year had 13 inches in Harrisburg April 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Just woke up to 5" of new snow in Blossburg (Tioga County). Snowing at a good clip. crimedog had 5" at 3:20am If he meant Canton, PA near Bradford......on March 23? No way. They can get storms like that well into April. Not common but not unheard of either. Yep Troy, Canton, Pa. Bradford County is what I was talking about. Canton ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND BRADFORD COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES. http://www.accuweath...es-warnings.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm starting to think they may be right. RUC looks like maybe an additional inch. Well, they are now after their going thru giving State College 3-5 inches and most of the northern/northeastern locations their heaviest snowfall Wed night phase. I'm still not sure where there was any recent model support for that since models had generally been lacking in hanging back much precip. Now further northeast on the edge of the CTP and into the BGM Pocono's region and perhaps a bit further south, we'll have to watch for some reconsolidation of precip from the antipicated showers and storms further west as it comes into the cold air that might allow for some additional snows tonight. At any rate it still looks like the headlines generally verified for the most part anyways, so it must have really put the snow down this morning. Judging by the wild variations of accums within some counties, elevation played the rule I figured it would in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Haha wow, tornado watches up in SW PA with the winter headlines NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 TORNADO WATCH AXWC UNIT 1:20 PM WED MAR 23 2011 ...THE PENNSYLVANIA UNTI OF ANALYSTWXCAST HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ...ALLEGHENY, BEAVER, FAYETTE, GREENE, SOMERSET, WASHINGTON, & WESTMORELAND... ...UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY EVENING... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. $ WINTER STORM WARNING AWXC PA UNIT 5:40 PM TUE MAR 22 2011 ...THE PENNSYLVANIA UNIT OF ANALYSTWXCAST HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ...BRADFORD, CARBON, COLUMBIA, LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE, LYCOMING, MONROE, NORTHHAMPTON, PIKE, POTTER, SULLIVAN, SUSQUEHANNA, TIOGA, WAYNE, & WYOMING... ...IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY... A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL FILTER IN COLD ENOUGH AIR FOR SNOW TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 6-10 INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY HEAVY IN WEIGHT WITH LOW LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS SO DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. $ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AWXC PA UNIT 5:40 PM TUE MAR 22 2011 ...THE PENNSYLVANIA UNIT OF ANALYSTWXCAST HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ... BUCKS, CAMERON, CLINTON, LEHIGH, NORTHUMBERLAND, MCKEAN, MONTOUR, SCHUYLKILL, & UNION... ...IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY... A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL FILTER IN COLD ENOUGH AIR FOR SNOW TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY HEAVY IN WEIGHT WITH LOW LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS SO DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Haha wow, tornado watches up in SW PA with the winter headlines NE. Gee ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES.Of snow in the northern tier. Tornado watches in the SW. Mother Nature is giving it all to us the first week of spring. Were currently 33.8 and about the same out at State College. Didn't look to see what the sounding was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Haha wow, tornado watches up in SW PA with the winter headlines NE. Check the temp gradient from Cleveland to Cincy. Craziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Western and South Central I think might get rolled later. Storms are really getting going and skies are clearing west to east across PA. I am going to do a little write up later. I have a meso ready for this afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Check the temp gradient from Cleveland to Cincy. Craziness. Just looked at that. Wow http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=CTPfwz&address=&type=&noho=&rawsflag=290 Zac Thanks for the update! Hows the lung healing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Just looked at that. Wow http://mesowest.utah...o=&rawsflag=290 Zac Thanks for the update! Hows the lung healing? It's doing quite well thanks for asking. Sometimes it feels strange to breath like something is ripping haha pretty nasty. Other then that no issues. I swear if my lung collapses again I am asking for a new one. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Western and South Central I think might get rolled later. Storms are really getting going and skies are clearing west to east across PA. I am going to do a little write up later. I have a meso ready for this afternoon as well. what the heck, bring it! It is just a raw day out. The kind where you sit in front of the fireplace, drink beer, eat cheese and watch football. cuz it sure as heck doesn't resemble baseball season.. glad your feeling better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 what the heck, bring it! It is just a raw day out. The kind where you sit in front of the fireplace, drink beer, eat cheese and watch football. cuz it sure as heck doesn't resemble baseball season.. glad your feeling better Thanks man. Ya i am looking forward to some storms. I already had one this year so only 1-2 more to match last year. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Thanks man. Ya i am looking forward to some storms. I already had one this year so only 1-2 more to match last year. lol. pretty cool this am 5ish, had decent sleet, thunder and lightning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 pretty cool this am 5ish, had decent sleet, thunder and lightning.. Nice. This 5am me and my girlfriend were fast asleep. Here it comes. Look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I believe Southwest PA has the best shot of severe weather today with at least 10 severe reports. South central should see a few strong to severe storms as well with up to 5 reports possible. The low pressure will move right over the region producing shear and with the clearing CAPE should rise between 500-1000 j/kg mainly in SW PA. But, storms should hold their strength and hit South central before weakening in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The temp has jumped up to 68 here and Severe thunderstorms are popping up all over just to our west. I wonder if they will hold together for you guys. Probably not severe but some thunderstorms nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Gee ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES.Of snow in the northern tier. Tornado watches in the SW. Mother Nature is giving it all to us the first week of spring. Were currently 33.8 and about the same out at State College. Didn't look to see what the sounding was. I believe Southwest PA has the best shot of severe weather today with at least 10 severe reports. South central should see a few strong to severe storms as well with up to 5 reports possible. The low pressure will move right over the region producing shear and with the clearing CAPE should rise between 500-1000 j/kg mainly in SW PA. But, storms should hold their strength and hit South central before weakening in SE PA. You know, I looked at this: THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE SNOW FROMWARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES TO SULLIVAN COUNTY. THERE COULD BETHUNDER-SNOW IN A FEW AREAS THESE EVENING. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OFSNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. And actually wondered about thundersnow or sleet here. I have no idea how that would work atmospherically. We are sitting at 33 here, have been all day. Was wondering if heavy precip would be rain or what given the temps. Of course, hard to say if the storms would survive coming here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The temp has jumped up to 68 here and Severe thunderstorms are popping up all over just to our west. I wonder if they will hold together for you guys. Probably not severe but some thunderstorms nonetheless. We are so socked in with clouds I wonder. Like I said before, precip types are of interest to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I had this out long before they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I believe Southwest PA has the best shot of severe weather today with at least 10 severe reports. South central should see a few strong to severe storms as well with up to 5 reports possible. The low pressure will move right over the region producing shear and with the clearing CAPE should rise between 500-1000 j/kg mainly in SW PA. But, storms should hold their strength and hit South central before weakening in SE PA. Yea the tornado watch region of SW PA is going to be getting interesting very soon as storms are approaching and/or starting to develop. At this point I don't think we'll see the watch getting extended east further into southern PA. I'll get into the parameters here in a sec.. but the cold, stable air looks to likely hold fast from the Laurels eastward. With that said, whatever thunderstorm activity develops will still move thru the rest of PA giving the chance to have some thunder/lightning and perhaps for some of the southern tier.. an overachiever might drop some hail. Some of the immediately adjacent counties to the watch area may have a severe warning carry over too. As this stuff eventually lifts into our far northern folks that were lucky enough to be graced with the white stuff, they may see another period of snow and it could even be accompanied by some thunder. Now onto the parameters for the severe weather: CAPE (surface based) For late March, seeing SW PA with CAPE's over 2000 is very impressive. Also note the large values of CIN over the rest of PA where the atmosphere is very stable. Bulk Shear (effective) Bulk shear values are pretty impressive, and supportive of supercell development and large hail. Lifted index 0-3km EHI We're now seeing values in SW PA spiking up to 2, with a general value of 1 in Ohio and SW PA. Basically the EHI combines the parameters of CAPE and storm relative helicity. The CAPE is decent, Helicity is meh. With values in generally the 1 to maybe 2 range, we're talking probably EF-0/EF-1 tornadoes with regards to any that actually spin up. Mid-level Lapse rate 700-500mb These values over 7 are quite steep in the mid-levels, and indicative of the primary threat of large hail with these storms and probably some pretty high cloudtops. Low-Level Lapse rate (surface - 3km) These are very steep as well, and this attributes to how warm surface temperatures have gotten in the areas that have cleared out. Once east/northeast of SW PA things gets really stable quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 I honestly wouldn't be shocked to get thundersnow here tonight if things hold together decently. I'm not expecting 50+ dbz returns to go over but it seems we could get heavy snow if things aloft cool down enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 They went Severe thunderstorm watch. I got a tornado watch up for basically the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 How are the storms going to survive into central and east PA when temperatures are around 40 hahaha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We just had quarter inch hail that covered the ground. I took pictures and you can see them in the Pittsburgh thread. It happened 30 minutes ago and the ground is still covered with hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We are so socked in with clouds I wonder. Like I said before, precip types are of interest to me. I've seen this rerun before with regards to this setup. I don't think any actual severe weather is going to survive long once they move into the Laurels and beyond. It just hasn't even tried to clear out today, warm up, theres 0 CAPE etc. There's just nothing to really keep them going. And as I write this we have Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued for the central southern 2 tiers from JST to MDT . The severe parameters while really good for hail, aren't that special with regards to a wind threat in the primary threat area. Once to us, the stable atmosphere is going to keep any major winds from getting mixed down to the surface anyways. Still though, these will still be thunderstorms moving through with thunder/lightning and some possible hail. That kinda gets complicated when its 33 degrees like in UNV haha. I'm really curious to see what these heavy storms do with the air in the 30s. Mesoanalysis indicates that the the mid level lapses are steepening to 7ºC/km+ in central PA now. So at least hail chances are pretty good. I wonder if the heavy precip in the storms could collapse the column enough to make some kind of a changeover happen. Gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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