JSTWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like the NAM is more bullish on the second part as far as snow now. People here are either asking me how bad it will be or in complete denial that we are entering a cold period. Its always hard to fathom a change in the wx (cold to warm or vice versa). I can see advisory snows of 2-4" in UNV. Just south in PGM may be the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM and GFS now bring most of NEPA plain rain for the latter part of the event, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Henry M snow potential maps for the next 3 storms FWIW. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/47347/snow-maps-for-the-next-3-storms-1.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Warnings up in the north country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Tonight: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 2am, then snow between 2am and 5am, then snow and sleet after 5am. Low around 32. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 8am, then snow and freezing rain between 8am and 2pm, then rain, snow, and sleet after 2pm. High near 37. East wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 29. North wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. ...Anyone buying this, Im skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Its currently 47 with a 29 dp. Not low at all. Not sure how much fz we get from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Warnings up in the north country Tony Thanks for the heads up ! Nam and GFS are closer to agreement. Just not precip wise. How does either one of these compare to the Euro? Was looking WRF and it's showing snow. http://www.erh.noaa...._nmm12g/wrf.php lol at Henry’s maps- Not really a prediction...Just area where snow is possible. Edit: NWS discussion. He keeps empathizing.....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --COMPUTER MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT TO COME TO A SOLID CONSENSUS. BUT DIDN/T SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO ONGOING FORECAST. RECIP BLOSSOMS AFTER 06Z WITH COMPUTER MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT TO COME TO A SOLID CONSENSUS. BUT DIDN/T SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO ONGOING FORECAST. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Its currently 47 with a 29 dp. Not low at all. Not sure how much fz we get from this. I def buy the forecast for your area, esp north of IPT. Temps will fall quickly when precip arrives, which will likely have already fallen some by the time it gets there. Here is the skew-t for williamsport generated from the 12z NAM and GFS for hour 6, or 18z today which is pretty much right now. Temps get to freezing once near about 900mb and stay at or around freezing thru near 700mb before falling steadily further aloft. Coninciding with this near freezing layer from 850-700mb is a very dry layer, which will allow more column cooling with precip arrival. That said, this is a very marginal event. the forecast for southern Lycoming and nothern Lycoming is quite different. Elevation is going to be a factor, so if you live north of IPT and have any kind of elevation on them your probably going to do better. I can see W-port itself having alot of mixing holding accums down to a few inches of the really sloppy stuff, hence the advisory for southern Lycoming... but once in those mountains north of town its going to likely be more of a 6-10 inch storm since there will be less mixing issues. A new development overall in the forecast is CTP bringing 1-3 inches Wed. night down into AOO, JST, and 3-5 for UNV. Now THAT remains to be seen IMO. I can certainly see the changover happening but I dunno if theres going to be enough QPF left in those areas for anything big.Crazier things have happened of course, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I def buy the forecast for your area, esp north of IPT. Temps will fall quickly when precip arrives, which will likely have already fallen some by the time it gets there. Here is the skew-t for williamsport generated from the 12z NAM and GFS for hour 6, or 18z today which is pretty much right now. Temps get to freezing once near about 900mb and stay at or around freezing thru near 700mb before falling steadily further aloft. Coninciding with this near freezing layer from 850-700mb is a very dry layer, which will allow more column cooling with precip arrival. That said, this is a very marginal event. the forecast for southern Lycoming and nothern Lycoming is quite different. Elevation is going to be a factor, so if you live north of IPT and have any kind of elevation on them your probably going to do better. I can see W-port itself having alot of mixing holding accums down to a few inches of the really sloppy stuff, hence the advisory for southern Lycoming... but once in those mountains north of town its going to likely be more of a 6-10 inch storm since there will be less mixing issues. A new development overall in the forecast is CTP bringing 1-3 inches Wed. night down into AOO, JST, and 3-5 for UNV. Now THAT remains to be seen IMO. I can certainly see the changover happening but I dunno if theres going to be enough QPF left in those areas for anything big.Crazier things have happened of course, so we'll see. I wondered about that myself. What do you see for our area late tonight/tomorrow am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wondered about that myself. What do you see for our area late tonight/tomorrow am? I think for State College some mixing could occur in that timeframe, but not likely enough to cause major issues. Here's why CTP took the action they did for Wed night, sounds pretty interesting. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --DIFFICULT CALL TO BEGIN THE LONG RANGE AS THE CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL 12Z MODELS...AND THE MOST RECENT 15Z SREF TRACKS A WELL-DEFINED 996MB SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR SWRN PENN AND INTO NRN VA LATE WED/WED NIGHT. THE SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW /IN THE FORM OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT 130 KT UPPER JET/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING AND A BACKING LLVL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW TO PUSH COLDER/SUB-FREEZING AIR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO PRECIP TO A MAINLY SLEET/WET SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP. UNSTABLE SFC-850 MB AIR FEEDING NE ACROSS THE TIGHT LLVL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SCENT PENN SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PORTIONS OF SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY...NEAR CONFLUENCE...COULD EVEN BREAK INTO THE WARM BLYR AIR WED AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT SOME STRONG TSRA WITH GUSTY WEST TO SW WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE`S ALSO THE CHC FOR A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF HEAVIER DEFORMATION PRECIP /SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP/ NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH INTERSTATE 80. THE NAM IS THE COLDER OUTLIER AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 thanks Mag, nice writeup and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think for State College some mixing could occur in that timeframe, but not likely enough to cause major issues. Here's why CTP took the action they did for Wed night, sounds pretty interesting. That would make this cold dreary mess worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 33.1°/27° Loving this setup. Wish we could stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 33.1°/27° Loving this setup. Wish we could stay all snow. NWS bgm has lowered the forcasted temps. it will be interensting to see tomorrow. if it stays all snow, we could be looking at 8 inches or more,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM basically cuts precip in half....temps the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm off to a good start guys, snow started here abour 10:15 and I have 1.1" of snow so far. Coming down at a very good clip. I cleared a portion of my board off to see what I would get for a hourly total from 11-12AM so I will let you guys know if your interested. Temperatures fell 5°F in the last hour as soon as the precipitation started, it really cooled the column of air. I'm hoping we can stay mostly snow but I'm sure the sleet will mix in at some point. I thought at first we would see sleet but nope, was plain snow from the very begining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey MAG or anyone think I can hit 8" of snow? I'm thinking a very tight gradient is going to set up near the eastern side of Potter County and points eastward are going to get slammed, with totals close to 12". I'm hoping the storm can slide a tad further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here's the 01z HRRR composite loop with p-types overlayed. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011032301&plotName=ptyp_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked to see you approach 8" with this one. Yeah, I think this event will be close to that amount. If we don't mix I would think we have the possibility of over achieving on this system. Just depends I guess on how much WAA enters the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here's the 01z HRRR composite loop with p-types overlayed. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011032301&plotName=ptyp_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Yeah I'm afraid the HRRR is going to be right with a period of sleet and ZR, none the less I'm along for the ride. GO winter GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snowing here just east of Williamsport! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's snowing, but it's not even accumulating on the sidewalks. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Accumulating on driveways and shoulder of road here...grass is coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hey MAG or anyone think I can hit 8" of snow? I'm thinking a very tight gradient is going to set up near the eastern side of Potter County and points eastward are going to get slammed, with totals close to 12". I'm hoping the storm can slide a tad further south. Total snowfall of 6-8 inches for this event should be pretty easily achievable for you, even with some periods of mixing. The good start your having probably helps too. The new NAM clearly keeps axis of the precip shield further north than previous, and doesn't really have any good precip drop in for the Wed night portion. The new GFS coming still continues to be warmer, with the snow-line running thru the ny border counties and printing snow to rain for the Pocono's and PSUHazelton. The new NAM really lacks consistent precip south of the deform snow shield, which ends up residing mainly north of the NY border for a time before it drops back south with lighter snows. Currently don't see much 0z model support for the meaningful snowfall wed night into the central counties. The GFS has alot more QPF south of its rain/snow line. So basically its the wetter and warmer GFS vs a somewhat colder but notably less robust NAM for the 0z. Gonna have to keep an eye on the real-time trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Oh and here is CTP's new map apparently updated as of 03:12 GMT (11:12p) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Any chance that map verifies MAG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We were around 40 most of the evening. Now its snowing and 34. It dropped pretty fast, nice call Mag.You nailed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Completely off topic, but was bored typing a paper and put on netflix....I'm now addicted to SNL from the early 90s...anyone remember this first hand? Hartman..Carvey...Farley..this is good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wow coming down at a very good clip. From 11-12AM I had 1.2" a hour snowfall rate. Have a total of 2.3" so far for the storm. There looks to be a small break in the action in about a hour from now, I wonder how long it will take it to fill back in. MAG I think your going to be right, looks like the main precip shield looks to stay further to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Completely off topic, but was bored typing a paper and put on netflix....I'm now addicted to SNL from the early 90s...anyone remember this first hand? Hartman..Carvey...Farley..this is good stuff! I was watching that stuff the other day with netflix too. SNL from late 80s to early 90s were the best . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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