JSTWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Sorta looks like that snow region was concentrated in southeast Cambria/Northeast Somerset by looks of most of the reports. I wonder what the top of Blue Knob looked like. Not sure about there. But we have video tonight at 10 and 11 of the snow in ogletown. They ended up with around 6" More areas could see that on Friday and Saturday morning with the comma head/deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 0z nam trims the rain a bit thanks to convection in the deep south and Florida. Good news for the eastern half of the state. totals now are around 1.75" from tonight through tomorrow night. Higher amounts are possible near the NJ border. Update from HPC: EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 930 PM EST WED MAR 09 2011 ...VALID 03Z THU MAR 10 2011 - 00Z FRI MAR 11 2011... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE PHL 10 SSW W29 20 SE NYG 10 SW OFP 25 WNW PTB 20 SE FVX 15 ESE LYH LYH 20 WNW LYH 10 W ROA 10 N BCB 20 S LWB 25 S EKN 15 SSE JST 15 NE IDI 25 NNW FIG 20 ESE BFD ELZ 20 SSW PEO ITH 15 N BGM 30 ESE BGM MSV 15 W MGJ 20 SSE SWF 10 NE TEB 10 SSE EWR 15 NW BLM 10 N WRI 10 ENE PHL. MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UNV 20 N IPT 35 NE IPT 30 NW AVP 25 NNW AVP 20 NNE AVP 25 ENE AVP 15 SW MSV 20 N FWN 10 N FWN FWN 20 E FWN 15 N TEB 10 NNE TEB TEB 10 SSW EWR TTN NXX 10 WSW LOM 25 ESE LNS 20 SSE LNS 15 NNW APG DCA NYG 10 WNW RMN OMH 15 SSW LKU 20 NE FVX 10 W FVX 20 WNW FVX 30 NE LYH 25 SSW SHD 10 S SHD 25 NE SHD 20 SE W99 W99 15 NE W99 20 W MRB 15 SSW UNV 25 NNE UNV. UPDATE... THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS DECREASED ON THE SRN EDGE ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS..WITH THE THREAT REGION CONFINED ACRS THE MID ATL WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOWEST. PCPN THIS EVENING IS SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE THAT HAS PUSHED ACRS THE SOUTH AND INTO FL. HOWEVER...PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THU. AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX VALUES...2 TO 3 STD ABOVE THE MEAN...EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU. THIS FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS...INCREASINGLY STRONG BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OVR THE MID ATL AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING OF PCPN ALONG THE STRONG BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE AXIS WL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WITH GENERAL MODEL AGRMNT ON 1-2"+ AMTS. WITH SOILS SATURATED FROM RECENT RAIN AND SNOW MELT...RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY ACRS THE MID ATL. ORAVEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks Tony for keeping us updated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks Tony for keeping us updated!! You're welcome! Interesting to see if the GFS follows suit will an eastward shift/slight tapering of the heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 GFS looks close with the heaviest totals in the eastern half, with up to 2" in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Row, row, row your boats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Row, row, row your boats. For your sake, i hope it doesn't crest above 18 feet......... Heavy rain currently in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Picked up about 0.33 of precipitation over night. The 2 major creeks for me are Pine Creek and Lycoming Creek Pine Creek at Cedar Run picked up about an 1.00 of rain over night. And Lycoming creek picked up from 0.36 to 0.52" And so far they haven't started rising. http://www.lyco.org/...t.aspx#Lycoming It appears the heavy rain is going to stay further to the east. http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Local creeks were up a bit this AM on the way to work but not by much. CTP makes mention of a dry slot lull. Looking at the radar, Virginia and on a line to the southwest is mostly rain free at the moment. That's encouraging for the flood prone areas. Latest crest forecast at Marietta is 53.8 ft and the major flood level is 54.0. If that forecast holds, that would make this a top 10 event for that location. And to think the Agnes crest was a full 10 feet above the current forecast. What a ridiculous event that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I remeber Agnes.... the river was moving so fast and so deep that it would have been suicide to be near it. ALso the worse part was how quickly it filled in the valley when the levees broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Local creeks were up a bit this AM on the way to work but not by much. CTP makes mention of a dry slot lull. Looking at the radar, Virginia and on a line to the southwest is mostly rain free at the moment. That's encouraging for the flood prone areas. Latest crest forecast at Marietta is 53.8 ft and the major flood level is 54.0. If that forecast holds, that would make this a top 10 event for that location. And to think the Agnes crest was a full 10 feet above the current forecast. What a ridiculous event that was. I was only a youngin, but remember it like it was yesterday the scenes are etched in my memory. I think a major contributaing factor why i like severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Hopefully Agnes was a once in a lifetime event! I went through that flood. Had 2' of water on the first floor of my parents house. The river was rising about 1 1/2 feet an hour. And it didn't stop rising. Back then they blew the fire siren when the river went over it's banks. Hehehe...hear the siren blow around midnight get up the next morning to find the river about 1/2 block away. And I lived over 1/2 mile away from the river.Was unreal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Hopefully Agnes was a once in a lifetime event! I went through that flood. Had 2' of water on the first floor of my parents house. The river was rising about 1 1/2 feet an hour. And it didn't stop rising. Back then they blew the fire siren when the river went over it's banks. Hehehe...hear the siren blow around midnight get up the next morning to find the river about 1/2 block away. And I lived over 1/2 mile away from the river.Was unreal!! I grew up right across the street from the firehouse (still live there) they National Gaurd called our social hall home for a couple days.. Wild times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I grew up right across the street from the firehouse (still live there) they National Gaurd called our social hall home for a couple days.. Wild times! Our house won't flood*. *Said with a grain of salt, but even in '72 the land our house sits on wasn't under water at all. It never got above 3rd and Hamilton - that's actually a high point in the city and kind of a plateau between 3-5 and Reilly and Macklay. Either sides of that little area it drops off quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 New forecast for the Susquehanna in Harrisburg is 20' - that's to the level of flooding out quite a few homes in the city. And the Yellow Breaches in New Cumberland will be roaring (it is easily flood prone) and unfortunately there are entire neighborhoods that will be flooded out. It's a normal occurrence there it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I was also just a wee lad in '72. We lived along the Little Conestoga. I remember there was a produce market a few miles upstream that was flooded. There was all this fruit floating by. My brother was wading out and must have snagged over a 50 piece assortment. Weird the stuff you remember. And we had over 6' of water in the basement. The mud sediment crap that was left over after the water receded was rude to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I remeber Agnes.... the river was moving so fast and so deep that it would have been suicide to be near it. ALso the worse part was how quickly it filled in the valley when the levees broke. I was only a youngin, but remember it like it was yesterday the scenes are etched in my memory. I think a major contributaing factor why i like severe weather. Hopefully Agnes was a once in a lifetime event! I went through that flood. Had 2' of water on the first floor of my parents house. The river was rising about 1 1/2 feet an hour. And it didn't stop rising. Back then they blew the fire siren when the river went over it's banks. Hehehe...hear the siren blow around midnight get up the next morning to find the river about 1/2 block away. And I lived over 1/2 mile away from the river.Was unreal!! Our house won't flood*. *Said with a grain of salt, but even in '72 the land our house sits on wasn't under water at all. It never got above 3rd and Hamilton - that's actually a high point in the city and kind of a plateau between 3-5 and Reilly and Macklay. Either sides of that little area it drops off quickly. I had just turned 5. I remember being terrified because I heard on the news a guy in York died because he stepped in a manhole crossing a flooded street and was swept away. Our house on the northern end of the city is on a little elevation on our two-house street. If you are familiar with York, Kiwanis Lake and Willis Run flooded but the water came to just a block away (I grew up two blocks from it next to the projects). My aunt had to be evaced out in West York. Water was steadily rising in her basement and she had to get out in a boat. Her street was a river, and she remembered people's possessions floating away past the boat. Interesting aside, rain changed to sleet at Philipsburg at the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Flood Warnings are up. Susquehanna river will flood..... I was about 11 and I worked at the Nanticoke evac center. they had a bunch of kids digging blankets out of donations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 any word on zack ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 any word on zack ? http://www.facebook.com/briskozak#!/briskozak?sk=wall Sais doing well after surgery. Just looked on the facebook page Jamie posted when you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 http://www.facebook....iskozak?sk=wall Sais doing well after surgery. Just looked on the facebook page Jamie posted when you mentioned it. Should we consider surgery an excused abcence during this rain storm? Glad he is doing well after his surgery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 http://www.facebook....iskozak?sk=wall Sais doing well after surgery. Just looked on the facebook page Jamie posted when you mentioned it. I second the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Still heavy rain here in harrisburg. Scanner is active with trees and wires down. Ground is so saturated stuff is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 http://www.facebook....iskozak?sk=wall Sais doing well after surgery. Just looked on the facebook page Jamie posted when you mentioned it. Good to hear that, hope he continue to gets well quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 http://www.facebook....iskozak?sk=wall Sais doing well after surgery. Just looked on the facebook page Jamie posted when you mentioned it. good news!! get well Zack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Power keeps going out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Glad for Zak...hopefully the good news keeps flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 1.35" so far here. Can't remember ever seeing so much standing/flowing water after only that much rain. Our yard suggests we had like 3-4". Looks like another heavy batch about to move in from York County and northern Maryland. Currently 53.1° with a southeast wind around 10-15mph. There have been some decent gusts as well. Moderate rain, getting heavier as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 0.18" so far...been kind of a letdown actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Don't have a rain gauge so I don't know how much we have gotten....A lot of ponding in the yard...stream by my house is fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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