JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I would be in a snow coma for a week , I just have to laugh at its outcome, NAM would be king forever in my book if it was true. It's busting hardcore for QPF so far so I have to put it in the outlier column for now, I'm definitely going with the GFS, it has been spot on with QPF totals so far. The EC has been very consistent. It's hard to get the nam precip amounts without thunderstorms.... it's just very wet biased, we all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The EC has been very consistent. It's hard to get the nam precip amounts without thunderstorms.... it's just very wet biased, we all know that. Yeah no doubt about that one thats for sure. I do think areas of northern pa gets updated to winter storm warnings, with totals close to 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The EC has been very consistent. It's hard to get the nam precip amounts without thunderstorms.... it's just very wet biased, we all know that. Yeah, but I wouldn't rule out 2" of precip....GFS would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 This map has changes since this afternoon. Top one being tonight’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The new NAM not only didn't blink, it spit in the eye of the other models. Wow. That looks like a significant snow even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 WOW...this is getting interesting.....probably won't be much of anything, but something to look at lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 WOW...this is getting interesting.....probably won't be much of anything, but something to look at lol. This is probably more reasonable for potter: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kbfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I am a actually quite excited for all this rain coming...I got a Davis VP2 for Christmas and I will be very interested keeping track of the rainfall rate throughout the storm! Should be fun! Im guessing that you have had enough time to realize how awesome the davis vantage pro 2 is for wx data. I have had mine for about 3 yrs now and love it. Its amazing how accurate the info is when compared to the local airport 10 minutes away. Its a great value in my opinion. As for the storm tomorrow, like everyone else has said, it should be interesting with a lot of rain and also watching the snow line setup .That will be fun to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 This is probably more reasonable for potter: http://www.meteor.ia...l=nam&site=kbfd I agree, this looks alot more reasonable, but still think its over doing the totals. I'm thinking 7-11" is looking like the best bet for northern PA.I'v currently only picked up .60" of rain. Just went down town to look at the major river near here, and it looks like it has a few feet yet before it even comes close to spilling over. Bring on the snow, I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Im guessing that you have had enough time to realize how awesome the davis vantage pro 2 is for wx data. I have had mine for about 3 yrs now and love it. Its amazing how accurate the info is when compared to the local airport 10 minutes away. Its a great value in my opinion. As for the storm tomorrow, like everyone else has said, it should be interesting with a lot of rain and also watching the snow line setup .That will be fun to keep an eye on. I know exactly what you guys mean, I won't go back to the crappy weather instruments. The Davis is the best hands down in my opinion. The only other brand I would think about getting would be the maximum anemometers and barometers. I only have the davis vantage vue, but plan on upgrading to the pro 2 this summer! The vantage vue has been my best instrument yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 With this extremely heavy precip. it'll be interesting to see where that line sets up....it's going to be puking snow somewhere in NPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 They just downgraded Bradford and Co. to an advisory while keeping the watch further east....lol. Cannot explain that one....also NWS going with srefs...there's a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 If the GFS is right about next week I might be rowboating back to Hazleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 If the GFS is right about next week I might be rowboating back to Hazleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Tomorrow is just crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GGEM says get your flood on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 At any rate, it was a really mild evening and a nice change from the wind and cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 .10" here so far with light rain and we only just begun. I have a good feeling this one will push 2" looking at current radar. And then the second storm, well lets not speak of that beast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looking into the longer range, I'm moving to my new apartment this coming Friday, March 11th. I understand there is another potent storm Thursday, but will it clear Lancaster County by 11am/noon Friday? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looking into the longer range, I'm moving to my new apartment this coming Friday, March 11th. I understand there is another potent storm Thursday, but will it clear Lancaster County by 11am/noon Friday? Thoughts? Depends which model is right. GFS sticks it around a bit longer while cmc/euro move it out but not before massive rains again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Been pretty busy the last couple days and haven't had much chance to post alot on this event. Safe to say that today (Sunday) is going to be a pretty wild day in some fashion for everyone. With regard to the flooding threat.. I'm with Brian on the primary area needing to be watched is the main stem Susquehanna with regards to the combined snowmelt from upstate New York and the influx of the tributaries which should be running at least caution or minor flood stage. The NAM is likely too heavy with its QPF, however.. due to the fact that this thing is going to be going negative tilt plus the tremendous influx of moisture that this has, I'm thinking most folks are going to be on the high end of that 1-2" of general rainfall (scattered 2.5-3" totals) that CTP's hydrology section mentions. I don't see much enhanced heavy rain in the precip shield attm either.. so I agree with a general widespread caution to minor flooding event. Had a look at FFG values for all the local rivers which can be found HERE -> http://www.srh.noaa.....php?pil=FFHPA2 and some waterways would take NAM values to even get to moderate stage much less major. The other thing that might quell a more significant flooding threat is the changeover to snow in the north and west. And that brings me to the wintry aspect. To be honest, I think CTP could be downplaying the snow aspect a bit too much at this juncture in at least some select areas. Changeover zone in the precip shield is already evident out in Ohio and Pittsburgh is down to 37 degrees. When this storm gets negative tilt it's going to hang the deform somewhere in western/central PA and allow the opportunity for the changeover to matter since the precip wouldn't be rocketing off to the northeast. The higher elevations in the Laurels could go over to snow pretty early today and is an area I would've considered some potential headlines for at the least. Places like Somerset and Johnstown might get a good thumping of at least advisory variety. A bit further east in the true central.. I wouldn't be surprised if even places like Altoona and State College sees advisory snowfall of the 2-4 isolated 5 category. Do like the northern tier watch placement, I expect they go to warnings with the next update. Should be very interesting to watch this go down later today, I'd usually be pretty pessimistic about these rain to snow type storms amounting to alot.. but there's a ton of potential in the setup with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just seen the euro. And wow. 1.5-2" from this event and another 2-3" from Thursday-Friday. Areas totaling 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The snow has commenced, it started around 640AM this morning, so we will see how much we can accumulate. To me, I think the Winter storm warning is going to bust, by just looking at the radar. Things look to be moving more East on the radar, rather than NE which may shorten up the accumulation of snowfall. Unless the LP from the south throws back some precip, I find it hard to get 8" of snow. I will gladly take WAA snows at this point, 4-6" looks like a good guess for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The snow has commenced, it started around 640AM this morning, so we will see how much we can accumulate. To me, I think the Winter storm warning is going to bust, by just looking at the radar. Things look to be moving more East on the radar, rather than NE which may shorten up the accumulation of snowfall. Unless the LP from the south throws back some precip, I find it hard to get 8" of snow. I will gladly take WAA snows at this point, 4-6" looks like a good guess for me. That's what the NAM is suggesting. And like a crazy drunk bastard at a Vegas blackjack table and an 18 showing, for UNV it didn't back off - it said hit me bitches. Upped my snow totals to 9.5 as per Cobb Table from 7.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 .55" of rain so far. Lot's more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The race to turn to snow has begun, temps down to 43.6ºF. Generally moderate rainfall rates thus far.. waterways are up but nothing is really out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 LOL...the new nam is crazy....srefs looked colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The race to turn to snow has begun, temps down to 43.6ºF. Generally moderate rainfall rates thus far.. waterways are up but nothing is really out of hand. This radar gives us an idea where the snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The race to turn to snow has begun, temps down to 43.6ºF. Generally moderate rainfall rates thus far.. waterways are up but nothing is really out of hand. Not sure what to make of the radar. Seems like the back edge is collapsing, but I suppose a deform band sets up somewhere? We are at 44.1 and dropping steadily. We were at 50.1 at 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 looking at the RUC....the next wave reinstates some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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