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2.24-2.25 obs/disco -- High Wind Warning Hoisted


Ian

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Nice to see the sun out in full force with a few clouds... if we can get 2-4 hrs of it... maybe some good storms?

Wondering same - this clearing slot is amazingly, well, CLEAR. Nary a cloud to be seen except for the line now moving across Eastern Shore. And it just shot up another degree to 62 since my last post a few minutes ago...wonder if we'll exceed the forecasted mid 60s here in SE FFxCo...

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It will have a hard time initiating until we hit peak heating early/mid afternoon. I wouldn't expect good storms to get going (if there are any good storms) until 3:00 or later, by which time the front will be in the DC area (just W or just E... not sure).

HRRR has the front through the Beltway between 1 and 2, and I have a hard time debating that considering the radar.

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HRRR has the front through the Beltway between 1 and 2, and I have a hard time debating that considering the radar.

Sounds about right... Looking at the IR, the cold front is currently on the WV/VA border, and it took about 3 hours to make it across WV. That would put it in DC around 1:00-1:30.

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DCA just shot up to 62 or 63 as of 11:10... a good jump from 58 recorded just 20 minutes before. Keep it going!

KDCA 251610Z 21016KT 10SM FEW023 SCT035 SCT110 SCT250 17/13 A2938 RMK AO2

KDCA 251552Z 21015G20KT 10SM FEW015 SCT030 SCT090 BKN250 14/12 A2939 RMK AO2 RAE15 SLP951 P0001 T01440117

KDCA 251452Z 23012G19KT 10SM -RA FEW012 SCT025 BKN100 OVC130 12/11 A2942 RMK AO2 RAB51 SLP962 P0000 60016 T01170106 58049

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mcd0141.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1036 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA/MD...DE...SERN PA...NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251636Z - 251800Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED NEAR 17Z.

BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ARE SHIFTING RAPIDLY

EAST ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND IN IT/S WAKE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE

HEATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER

MD/VA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED CONSIDERABLY...AND MAY

CONTINUE TO DO SO...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN

CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS

NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE

STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LATEST

THINKING IS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTIVE LINE

AS IT MATURES OVER THE DELMARVA AND QUICKLY RACES EWD TOWARD THE

MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 37777780 40247592 39777393 37197580 37777780

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1138 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-VAZ025-026-036>040-050>057-501-502-251730-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-CALVERT MD-

NELSON VA-ORANGE VA-KING GEORGE VA-GREENE VA-STAFFORD VA-MADISON VA-

CULPEPER VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER VA-

CHARLES MD-ALBEMARLE VA-AUGUSTA VA-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-FAIRFAX VA-

1138 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT

CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...

AT 1136 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS

ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HACKLEYS CROSSROAD TO 3 MILES NORTH OF

AFTON...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRLIE...BETHEL...IVY...SHELBY...NEW

BALTIMORE...WESTMORELAND...BARRACKS...HOLLYMEAD...BULL RUN AND

MITCHELLS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG INTERSTATE

95 BETWEEN WASHINGTON DC AND FREDERICKSBURG NEAR 1:30 PM.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THREATENING

WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

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with 70 mph forward speed and almost no instability it's going to be tough to get much well formed. places east might cook a bit more first. still no real indication of clouds bubbling more on sat.

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