Skywalker03 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Sun and blue skies here in downtown Silver Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 11 AM DCA OB: 58/53 SW 17 G 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Nice to see the sun out in full force with a few clouds... if we can get 2-4 hrs of it... maybe some good storms? Wondering same - this clearing slot is amazingly, well, CLEAR. Nary a cloud to be seen except for the line now moving across Eastern Shore. And it just shot up another degree to 62 since my last post a few minutes ago...wonder if we'll exceed the forecasted mid 60s here in SE FFxCo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It will have a hard time initiating until we hit peak heating early/mid afternoon. I wouldn't expect good storms to get going (if there are any good storms) until 3:00 or later, by which time the front will be in the DC area (just W or just E... not sure). HRRR has the front through the Beltway between 1 and 2, and I have a hard time debating that considering the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 an ef4 tornado in the mid atlantic this spring As long as it doesn't hit a populated area, that would be fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 WXbug stations in Germantown recording winds over 40mph now, WXbug headquarters has a 48mph gust. Highest gust down here is 31mph so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 As long as it doesn't hit a populated area, that would be fine by me. maybe a dc split instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 HRRR has the front through the Beltway between 1 and 2, and I have a hard time debating that considering the radar. Sounds about right... Looking at the IR, the cold front is currently on the WV/VA border, and it took about 3 hours to make it across WV. That would put it in DC around 1:00-1:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 1630 SPC OTLK keeps SLGT risk... drops TOR to 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 DCA just shot up to 62 or 63 as of 11:10... a good jump from 58 recorded just 20 minutes before. Keep it going! KDCA 251610Z 21016KT 10SM FEW023 SCT035 SCT110 SCT250 17/13 A2938 RMK AO2 KDCA 251552Z 21015G20KT 10SM FEW015 SCT030 SCT090 BKN250 14/12 A2939 RMK AO2 RAE15 SLP951 P0001 T01440117 KDCA 251452Z 23012G19KT 10SM -RA FEW012 SCT025 BKN100 OVC130 12/11 A2942 RMK AO2 RAB51 SLP962 P0000 60016 T01170106 58049 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 As long as it doesn't hit a populated area, that would be fine by me. So you don't care about alpacas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 1630 SPC OTLK keeps SLGT risk... drops TOR to 2% Now it looks like a good outlook to me 2/0/15 tor/hail/wind is probably the best forecast for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 dc cloud hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 DC split underway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 the "SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE" wording is now in the LWX zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Low scud-type clouds were freaking hauling along about 1 hour ago but now have all cleared. Definitely some high winds not far above the surface. BWI reporting ACSL SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 the spc charts are all pretty blah. we need some big help fast. maybe someone near the bay will have more luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 After 15 minutes of sun, its overcast again here. Finally up to 51.1 Was in the 30's up until an hour ago. Still mostly snow covered yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 60 degrees sharp, a few low clouds racing absurdly fast. I think a heavy shower could bring that to the surface, looks crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 63.5 on my VP2. The rapid rise has slowed, but it is still warming. Should be a nice walk at lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 maybe a dc split instead You guys are use to it. Hopefully come May, DC Splits will no longer impact my life as I move a little further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Clear blue sky overhead with some clouds off to my north, north west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 MD issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA/MD...DE...SERN PA...NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251636Z - 251800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED NEAR 17Z. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ARE SHIFTING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND IN IT/S WAKE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE HEATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER MD/VA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED CONSIDERABLY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LATEST THINKING IS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MATURES OVER THE DELMARVA AND QUICKLY RACES EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2011 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 37777780 40247592 39777393 37197580 37777780 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 winds are up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1138 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-VAZ025-026-036>040-050>057-501-502-251730- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-CALVERT MD- NELSON VA-ORANGE VA-KING GEORGE VA-GREENE VA-STAFFORD VA-MADISON VA- CULPEPER VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER VA- CHARLES MD-ALBEMARLE VA-AUGUSTA VA-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ROCKINGHAM VA- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-FAIRFAX VA- 1138 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011 ...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... AT 1136 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HACKLEYS CROSSROAD TO 3 MILES NORTH OF AFTON...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRLIE...BETHEL...IVY...SHELBY...NEW BALTIMORE...WESTMORELAND...BARRACKS...HOLLYMEAD...BULL RUN AND MITCHELLS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN WASHINGTON DC AND FREDERICKSBURG NEAR 1:30 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Seems best threat will be E of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 with 70 mph forward speed and almost no instability it's going to be tough to get much well formed. places east might cook a bit more first. still no real indication of clouds bubbling more on sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....s/11022516_OBS/ interesting 16z IAD sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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