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Feb 25 Obs/disco

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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nzucker

nzucker

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Great GTG tonight with Ray and Scott (Coastalwx)....amazing what a little net gain and a fresh snow can do. Looks like mid January again....the old crust has been hidden under the return of winter, even if for a brief time.

Nice to hear you guys had fun!

I am a bit worried about SNE's snowpack with the Monday cutter. That looks pretty ugly with heavy rain and temperatures in the upper 40s at least...+10C isotherm approaches NYC at 66 hours on the 0z GFS. Could SNE break into the 50s or is it too rainy for that much warmth?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Nice to hear you guys had fun!

I am a bit worried about SNE's snowpack with the Monday cutter. That looks pretty ugly with heavy rain and temperatures in the upper 40s at least...+10C isotherm approaches NYC at 66 hours on the 0z GFS. Could SNE break into the 50s or is it too rainy for that much warmth?

I'm actually not nearly as worried about the pack for that event as I was about 24-36 hours ago. There is a pretty good CAD signature showing now...and I think any warm sectoring would be relatively brief. So yeah, it will melt whatever falls on Sunday away and perhaps a bit more, but I cannot imagine it putting much dent in the concrete 20" cement foundation below the Sunday fluff. Not more than a couple to few inches anyway.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Nice to hear you guys had fun!

I am a bit worried about SNE's snowpack with the Monday cutter. That looks pretty ugly with heavy rain and temperatures in the upper 40s at least...+10C isotherm approaches NYC at 66 hours on the 0z GFS. Could SNE break into the 50s or is it too rainy for that much warmth?

I'm pretty shocked how well the snowpack has done..even in areas that torched. It's so glaciated, that it's going to take a supernova to really melt it. AT 18z Monday you can see that warm front kink to the south of sne. That probably means Will is in the 30s with rain at that point...lol. Even the vortmax isn't terribly strong. Maybe he warm sectors briefly, but I wouldn't be shocked of much of interior SNE north of CT is a cold rain for a while.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'm pretty shocked how well the snowpack has done..even in areas that torched. It's so glaciated, that it's going to take a supernova to really melt it. AT 18z Monday you can see that warm front kink to the south of sne. That probably means Will is in the 30s with rain at that point...lol. Even the vortmax isn't terribly strong. Maybe he warm sectors briefly, but I wouldn't be shocked of much of interior SNE north of CT is a cold rain for a while.

I think there is a good chance at a period of icing too on the front end of that for interior areas...that will also make the snow pack tougher to melt...that thin crust of ice takes some of the "heat" (no pun intended) when the air mass tries to melt the pack....it has to "waste" it on melting that crust of ice before it can get to work on the snow underneath. I'm torn of whether we warm sector or not...but I think if we do, it will be relatively brief as you said. I don't see Monday as being a huge snow pack destroyer at this point.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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BTW new snow depth this evening was a shade over 21"...up from a low of 18"...the new snow is total cement too with the wet snow being iced on this afternoon with the freezing rain and then an inch of wet snow on top that is now mostly frozen except the extreme top half inch or so which is more like powder.

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nzucker

nzucker

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I think there is a good chance at a period of icing too on the front end of that for interior areas...that will also make the snow pack tougher to melt...that thin crust of ice takes some of the "heat" (no pun intended) when the air mass tries to melt the pack....it has to "waste" it on melting that crust of ice before it can get to work on the snow underneath. I'm torn of whether we warm sector or not...but I think if we do, it will be relatively brief as you said. I don't see Monday as being a huge snow pack destroyer at this point.

It seems to me the high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is keeping SNE cool Monday relative to other regions. It could be a case where NYC is like 55F with +RN while ORH is dealing with low-mid 30s and icing issues. It definitely looks a lot warmer over the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic than New England.

Thankfully I'll be up north for the event..I'm visiting friends and doing winter activities at Middlebury starting tomorrow, and I was actually thinking of chasing the cutter in Quebec, going somewhere that will stay all snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It seems to me the high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is keeping SNE cool Monday relative to other regions. It could be a case where NYC is like 55F with +RN while ORH is dealing with low-mid 30s and icing issues. It definitely looks a lot warmer over the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic than New England.

Thankfully I'll be up north for the event..I'm visiting friends and doing winter activities at Middlebury starting tomorrow, and I was actually thinking of chasing the cutter in Quebec, going somewhere that will stay all snow.

We still might warm sector at some point (though probably briefly if it does)....but when we have high pressure to the northeast, the models almost ALWAYS under do the CAD in New England. Even this past event was no different. 2 days before the vaunted Euro was cutting it over Albany and torching me into the 50s...this is what I got all afternoon (note wind direction too):

feb25orhobs.jpg

This one won't be as cold, but there could def be some ice on the front end and then I could see a period of 34-36F rain before maybe a brief warm sector...but its possible too that the warm sector never makes it here. But a 4-5 hour period of temps in the upper 40s in the warm sector will not do a whole lot to the current pack even if that were to occur. It looked a lot uglier 24+ hours ago when the models were trying to warm sector us for about 18 hours with 50F and heavy rain the whole time.

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nzucker

nzucker

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This one won't be as cold, but there could def be some ice on the front end and then I could see a period of 34-36F rain before maybe a brief warm sector...but its possible too that the warm sector never makes it here. But a 4-5 hour period of temps in the upper 40s in the warm sector will not do a whole lot to the current pack even if that were to occur. It looked a lot uglier 24+ hours ago when the models were trying to warm sector us for about 18 hours with 50F and heavy rain the whole time.

I noticed today that ORH airport never went above freezing...remarkable. If the warm layer hadn't been so thick, you would have dealt with significant icing issues...I bet some of the higher valleys in Central/Western Mass did have some decent icing.

We got up to 48.1F in +RN down here, so there was quite a sharp temperature gradient. However, it seems as if the Euro was a bit more correct at 0z last night than the 0z GFS which was warmer and had tons of heavy rain for you guys.

BTW, 0z ECM looks putrid in the long range...AK block stays too far west for most of the run and the North Atlantic ridge can never build into an NAO block with the persistent vortex over Baffin Island and the Canadian Archipelago. Still looks like a gradient pattern which might be favorable to some in New England, but no sign of a big trough returning to the East as the Bermuda ridge continues to dominate. Winter might be nixed for most of I-95 if we don't start to see a change towards a better pattern in the models soon. GFS ENS and ECM both agree on a big GoA low and the CONUS being pretty mild aside from the Northern Rockies and Pac NW.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I noticed today that ORH airport never went above freezing...remarkable. If the warm layer hadn't been so thick, you would have dealt with significant icing issues...I bet some of the higher valleys in Central/Western Mass did have some decent icing.

We got up to 48.1F in +RN down here, so there was quite a sharp temperature gradient. However, it seems as if the Euro was a bit more correct at 0z last night than the 0z GFS which was warmer and had tons of heavy rain for you guys.

BTW, 0z ECM looks putrid in the long range...AK block stays too far west for most of the run and the North Atlantic ridge can never build into an NAO block with the persistent vortex over Baffin Island and the Canadian Archipelago. Still looks like a gradient pattern which might be favorable to some in New England, but no sign of a big trough returning to the East as the Bermuda ridge continues to dominate. Winter might be nixed for most of I-95 if we don't start to see a change towards a better pattern in the models soon. GFS ENS and ECM both agree on a big GoA low and the CONUS being pretty mild aside from the Northern Rockies and Pac NW.

The pattern around D7 doesn't look horrendous...verbatim its not doing us any favors, but I wouldn't be surprised if that trended colder. At any rate, even if we don't get crap in that one, I think the pattern is finally showing some signs of relaxation on the -PNA after about Mar 5th...its still there but some retrograding of the NW US low could bring heights up a tad in the Rockies and we might have a shot at something. Scott and I were talking to Ray about that tonight...we could see something in the Mar 5-20 time frame...the latter part being more favorable IMHO. Models tend to rush pattern changes so its not a total shock that its been pushed back a bit for something a bit better. Its still a gradient pattern but maybe a bit more relaxed. I think New England will see a decent sized storm in mid March some time. Even though it doesn't mean a whole lot statistically, I don't think we'll see 4 dud Marches in a row. the last 3 have sucked. I guess it could continue, but my bet is we capitalize on a window there where the W ridges bit in a transient manner and we find room for a coastal.

Mar '67 found a way to do that more than once which is a pattern that resembles much of the model progs we are seeing...in fact 3 or 4 separate times despite an overall cruddy pattern. Yoiu wouldn't think Mar '67 was a great month in the northeast by this map

compday2461240250560495.gif

I doubt we cash in like that month, but I can see us doing it once (rather than 3-4 times). Mix in a couple more front enders and I think Mar won't be bad around here. But certainly there is plenty of room to still say it will suck for the skeptical folks.

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Ice Warrior commander

Ice Warrior commander

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I'm actually not nearly as worried about the pack for that event as I was about 24-36 hours ago. There is a pretty good CAD signature showing now...and I think any warm sectoring would be relatively brief. So yeah, it will melt whatever falls on Sunday away and perhaps a bit more, but I cannot imagine it putting much dent in the concrete 20" cement foundation below the Sunday fluff. Not more than a couple to few inches anyway.

Glad you guys had a fun gtg.

I agree. I'm amazed at the bullet proof/ cement nature of the snowpack . I had a net gain today. Nice white over the hard crested top. Sunday adds more. . I'm not as worried about the event on monday either.. Not like I was 24 hours ago.

Good night.

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nzucker

nzucker

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The pattern around D7 doesn't look horrendous...verbatim its not doing us any favors, but I wouldn't be surprised if that trended colder. At any rate, even if we don't get crap in that one, I think the pattern is finally showing some signs of relaxation on the -PNA after about Mar 5th...its still there but some retrograding of the NW US low could bring heights up a tad in the Rockies and we might have a shot at something. Scott and I were talking to Ray about that tonight...we could see something in the Mar 5-20 time frame...the latter part being more favorable IMHO. Models tend to rush pattern changes so its not a total shock that its been pushed back a bit for something a bit better. Its still a gradient pattern but maybe a bit more relaxed. I think New England will see a decent sized storm in mid March some time. Even though it doesn't mean a whole lot statistically, I don't think we'll see 4 dud Marches in a row. the last 3 have sucked. I guess it could continue, but my bet is we capitalize on a window there where the W ridges bit in a transient manner and we find room for a coastal.

Mar '67 found a way to do that more than once which is a pattern that resembles much of the model progs we are seeing...in fact 3 or 4 separate times despite an overall cruddy pattern. Yoiu wouldn't think Mar '67 was a great month in the northeast by this map

I doubt we cash in like that month, but I can see us doing it once (rather than 3-4 times). Mix in a couple more front enders and I think Mar won't be bad around here. But certainly there is plenty of room to still say it will suck for the skeptical folks.

March 1967 was an incredible month down here; 27.1" of snow fell capped off by the 10" storm on 3/22, quite late by our standards. 17 out of 31 days had at least 1" snow cover in Dobbs Ferry with a maximum of 13", which is very impressive for March at only 41N. I think it was an example of a cold pattern over Canada as we have now becoming favorable for the Northeast, and a couple Nor'easters sparked by favorable timing of the NAO blocking.

We might see a March 1967 pattern this time except with more extreme blocking over the Bering Strait, retrograding towards AK, and perhaps an east-based NAO block in the composite mean. The Euro starts to look favorable around Day 6 with the North Atlantic ridge moving into Greenland, but then it abruptly disappears, so hopefully the storm in that timeframe can trend colder with the NAO backing in more and erasing the negative H5 anomalies over Baffin Island. Also, it looks as if the GoA low shifts west in the longer range which creates higher heights in the Rockies as you say. It might be more advantageous for the Northeast if the GoA low moves back towards the Aleutians and we get rid of the low pressures we currently have stalling out near the BC/WA coastline, which is generally a poor pattern.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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BTW new snow depth this evening was a shade over 21"...up from a low of 18"...the new snow is total cement too with the wet snow being iced on this afternoon with the freezing rain and then an inch of wet snow on top that is now mostly frozen except the extreme top half inch or so which is more like powder.

I'm actually pretty interested in what my snowpack does with Monday's rain. I suspect we lose a few inches but I but it just soaks up the water and turns to ice cement when the arctic comes down on Wednesday.

Not much talk about beyond Monday...boring week eh? GYX has us clouding up on Friday but otherwise mostly clear and turning colder for much of the week.

Opps...missed a page. lol

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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What an icy mess this morning. Yesterdays 3" snow with a heavy moisture content was a b**ch to clean up by far the worst of the Winter. Nice little icing event as well. Very picturesque this morning.

How much did you get for the second round?

I got 3.5" in the morning, then about an inch in the evening.

Agreed about the nastiness. I have to go tackle the rock hard crevasses in my driveway in a few minutes

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subdude

subdude

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How much did you get for the second round?

I got 3.5" in the morning, then about an inch in the evening.

Agreed about the nastiness. I have to go tackle the rock hard crevasses in my driveway in a few minutes

I ended up with 4" total. 3" in the AM and 1" last night. Did you get any icing? My trees have a nice coating

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