weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SPC UPGRADES THE ENTIRE AREA INTO A SEE TEXT FOR TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ...APPALACHIANS INTO ATLANTIC SEABOARD... SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS PROBABLE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM 70 TO 90 KTS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED MID/UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAKENING PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS FIRST AROUND MIDDAY...THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL BAND MAY ALLOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIDED BY A SECONDARY ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN/ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO DESTABILIZATION. IT IS NOT EVEN CLEAR THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BE MUCH ABOVE THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A THUNDER OUTLOOK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE LARGE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE CAPABLE OF CONTRIBUTING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE GUSTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGING SPEEDS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE...SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES BELOW SLIGHT RISK LEVELS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BUT...THE THREAT AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SPC UPGRADES THE ENTIRE AREA INTO A SEE TEXT FOR TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! too bad, I was looking forward to thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 One that is becoming more interesting is the threat for a period of pretty heavy snowfall rates across central VT and NH around 9am-1pm. Pretty good dynamics in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ughh...sorry. I have no clue why it posts like that. On eastern when you just used to copy and past it it would come out neater than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 too bad, I was looking forward to thunderstorms. Usually in the summer when we see SEE TEXT it means we get nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 too bad, I was looking forward to thunderstorms. It's the slight risks you have to worry about. That's when you know you're screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SPC UPGRADES THE ENTIRE AREA INTO A SEE TEXT FOR TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Too bad 95 % of CT isn't in the warm sector tomorrow lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Euro definitely a bit colder and SE of last night. Looks like mostly snow for CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Euro definitely a bit colder and SE of last night. Looks like mostly snow for CNE. More snow for you congrats Track AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 More snow for you congrats Track AMOUT I bet it goes right over my head. If not, then within 10 miles either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Too bad 95 % of CT isn't in the warm sector tomorrow lol.. BOX has a high of 50F for tomorrow, plus being warm sectored really doesn't mean a great deal...this convection will be forced convection and from instability aloft generated from mid-level cooling. This convection will also be aided by incredible dynamics and lift. You FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I bet it goes right over my head. I still think you are north of track..and it shoots right up Messenegers poop shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 More snow for you congrats Track AMOUT All the guidance today has been colder than last night. I'm starting to wonder if my northern areas for forecasting up near the NH border will get a lot more snow than first thought. Its a close call but I could see someone like Winchendon or Gardner picking up 6" of paste with an isothermal proflile from like 700mb all the way to the sfc. Those are always the toughest to forecast because it could also be heavy rain and 33F....or even a narrow ribbon of ice at 31.5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BOX has a high of 50F for tomorrow, plus being warm sectored really doesn't mean a great deal...this convection will be forced convection and from instability aloft generated from mid-level cooling. This convection will also be aided by incredible dynamics and lift. You FTL Who cares what they have. The only places that have a shot of seeing 50 are extreme SE Ct and Se New Eng..you'll be lucky to sniff 40 with light north flow down the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not to mention they will probably get some thundersnow too across parts of VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 All the guidance today has been colder than last night. I'm starting to wonder if my northern areas for forecasting up near the NH border will get a lot more snow than first thought. Its a close call but I could see someone like Winchendon or Gardner picking up 6" of paste with an isothermal proflile from like 700mb all the way to the sfc. Those are always the toughest to forecast because it could also be heavy rain and 33F....or even a narrow ribbon of ice at 31.5F. Yeah Hunchback and those areas look like they could be in for a nice surprise..One more trend SE tonite and even you might be able to cash in on like 3-5 of blue paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Who cares what they have. The only places that have a shot of seeing 50 are extreme SE Ct and Se New Eng..you'll be lucky to sniff 40 with light north flow down the valley The NAM has a SW sfc flow up through much of the column until the front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The NAM has a SW sfc flow up through much of the column until the front passes. Who cares what the NAM has? You always dry hump that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I still think you are north of track..and it shoots right up Messenegers poop shoot LOL, it doesn't really matter. I actually hope it goes north and I warm sector to get decent winds. I have to head into work at 1 so I suppose it doesn't matter since I would miss any decent winds anyways. As much as the euro was better for our backyard, and made a huge trend east. Back on Sunday and Monday morning I was thinking a warmer scenario for a good chunk of sne. By Monday aftn and esp Tuesday when the GFS held steady and the euro ticked east...I thought maybe more of a climo thing snaking along sne. That's probably what will happen. I'm pretty sure it's north of messenger..and maybe even close to you, but perhaps it's down closer to GON and se mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 so 7am 0c 850 shifted from NH/MA border to HFD-PVD-TAN ? what implications may this have for am commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 All the guidance today has been colder than last night. I'm starting to wonder if my northern areas for forecasting up near the NH border will get a lot more snow than first thought. Its a close call but I could see someone like Winchendon or Gardner picking up 6" of paste with an isothermal proflile from like 700mb all the way to the sfc. Those are always the toughest to forecast because it could also be heavy rain and 33F....or even a narrow ribbon of ice at 31.5F. I'll try and post the euro weenie maps for you, because I know you have interest there. They won't be ready for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I still think you are north of track..and it shoots right up Messenegers poop shoot It's going to slide north of me I think, between here and Scott. It'll ride right along the boundary which is going to blow right through here. What's interesting to me is that if a mechanism existed for perfectly blending the Euro with the GFS into a super model, we'd have a much more accurate model than either alone. This storm is a perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, it doesn't really matter. I actually hope it goes north and I warm sector to get decent winds. I have to head into work at 1 so I suppose it doesn't matter since I would miss any decent winds anyways. As much as the euro was better for our backyard, and made a huge trend east. Back on Sunday and Monday morning I was thinking a warmer scenario for a good chunk of sne. By Monday aftn and esp Tuesday when the GFS held steady and the euro ticked east...I thought maybe more of a climo thing snaking along sne. That's probably what will happen. I'm pretty sure it's north of messenger..and maybe even close to you, but perhaps it's down closer to GON and se mass. I know they happen..but there's not too many storms that go right over my head...I-95 just seems like the best call right now ..snowcover, climo, baroclinic zone..all signs point to wagons SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 so 7am 0c 850 shifted from NH/MA border to HFD-PVD-TAN ? what implications may this have for am commute? blowing out your tailpipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, it doesn't really matter. I actually hope it goes north and I warm sector to get decent winds. I have to head into work at 1 so I suppose it doesn't matter since I would miss any decent winds anyways. As much as the euro was better for our backyard, and made a huge trend east. Back on Sunday and Monday morning I was thinking a warmer scenario for a good chunk of sne. By Monday aftn and esp Tuesday when the GFS held steady and the euro ticked east...I thought maybe more of a climo thing snaking along sne. That's probably what will happen. I'm pretty sure it's north of messenger..and maybe even close to you, but perhaps it's down closer to GON and se mass. Its hard to get a sfc low to track over ALB unless the vortmax is really strong. This system doesn't really fit that bill...at least if models are close to depicting the s/w correctly. Even Feb 5-6 couldn't do it when it was trying to track it over MPM 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 looks like wa wa might get into some moderate snows. then 34F R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 All the guidance today has been colder than last night. I'm starting to wonder if my northern areas for forecasting up near the NH border will get a lot more snow than first thought. Its a close call but I could see someone like Winchendon or Gardner picking up 6" of paste with an isothermal proflile from like 700mb all the way to the sfc. Those are always the toughest to forecast because it could also be heavy rain and 33F....or even a narrow ribbon of ice at 31.5F. Good thing Im going to southern NH tonight. That 12z through 15z period is where it matters. If its snow, it could be ripping. Heavy, Heavy Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know they happen..but there's not too many storms that go right over my head...I-95 just seems like the best call right now ..snowcover, climo, baroclicnic zone..all signs point to wagons SE You are obsessed with track of this thing. It'll be 44F and rain or 46F and rain. It makes no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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