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Feb 25 Obs/disco


CoastalWx

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We're done here...I was hoping against hope we'd keep the line south until 15z...but it just happened...at 12:30z. We are screwed now until it changes back over.

1.8" new. Congrats Moneypitmike!!!!!!!!!. Extra !!!!. for Him. Hopefully it collapses back SE fairly quick. My guess is ORH never gets above 35F...maybe not 34F.

It's only 35.0 here with rain. You'll have some of the coldest rain possible. Maybe not KGAY 32.00000001F rain...lol, but cold enough.

I hope we can get some of that backside snow. I never like relying on those types of features, but this guy has some dynamics with it, so I'm hoping to whiten things up.

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It's only 35.0 here with rain. You'll have some of the coldest rain possible. Maybe not KGAY 32.00000001F rain...lol, but cold enough.

I hope we can get some of that backside snow. I never like relying on those types of features, but this guy has some dynamics with it, so I'm hoping to whiten things up.

We have mild glazing already on trees. lol. But I think its about to go to 32.1F for the Ray ob. Currently 31.5F and ZR.

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Do you still like 47F for Kevin's BY after all the sh** you gave him? lol

I don't think its happening.

Let's see what happens...but you are right, I'd likely be buying a round of beers on this one....southern 1/3 of NJ is quite warm--I think I definitely torch for a bit down here with increasing S and SW winds later, but NE CT---????

-

In the meantime, blinding rain here...heaviest I've seen since middle of last December.....

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This is like watching paint dry waiting for precip to make it north... unfortunately this whole thing is now moving more east than north. The higher hills and mountains from 2,000ft and up have that "wispy" look to them so I'm sure they are seeing some flurries or light snow, but it just will not saturate down in the lower els right now.

I'm thinking 4-6" here given the south shift... not the best but I'll take it. My only hope for 6" or above now is a freak fronto band that sets up shop well north of the low and goes to town. Or the deformation with higher ratio snows can hopefully pile it up or something, I do like the looks and axis of that thin narrow +SN band back over lake Erie and Ontario. Other than that, the radar in central NY looks like crap, lol, as our source region for these is usually down near Syracuse and Utica.

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Yeah I made a post yesterday that we had some instability with this system, especially as the vortmax passes through later on. I wouldn't be shocked if some areas of NNE had a rumble....maybe even some spots here as the ULL passes by, although that might be a stretch.

It's signaled here. When looking at the thunderstorm threat yesterday, I noticed that the total-totals maxed out at 53 at PVD not in the warm sector, but when that vort max is overhead, around 00z.

gfs_700_018l.gif

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It's signaled here. When looking at the thunderstorm threat yesterday, I noticed that the total-totals maxed out at 53 at PVD not in the warm sector, but when that vort max is overhead, around 00z.

gfs_700_018l.gif

Yeah there might be some elevated stuff in the warm sector no doubt. I've had three tstms this month so far....not bad. Hopefully the system tonight is dynamic, but sometimes all that comes through is a couple of disorganized bands of snow, after thinking it might be more widespread. I think it looks interesting, so hopefully it happens.

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Man you're rough on your body with that schedule. Very dedicated individual dont know how you do it. Have a good days sleep.

I get paid for it, lol. Otherwise I would never do it.

Even that probably isnt enough though. You are probably right. I'm out until tomorrow late.

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Let's see what happens...but you are right, I'd likely be buying a round of beers on this one....southern 1/3 of NJ is quite warm--I think I definitely torch for a bit down here with increasing S and SW winds later, but NE CT---????

-

In the meantime, blinding rain here...heaviest I've seen since middle of last December.....

Kevin should stay cold. In fact, it's very possible it passes near or maybe just north of Messenger. Farther south than I thought.

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This is like watching paint dry waiting for precip to make it north... unfortunately this whole thing is now moving more east than north. The higher hills and mountains from 2,000ft and up have that "wispy" look to them so I'm sure they are seeing some flurries or light snow, but it just will not saturate down in the lower els right now.

I'm thinking 4-6" here given the south shift... not the best but I'll take it. My only hope for 6" or above now is a freak fronto band that sets up shop well north of the low and goes to town. Or the deformation with higher ratio snows can hopefully pile it up or something, I do like the looks and axis of that thin narrow +SN band back over lake Erie and Ontario. Other than that, the radar in central NY looks like crap, lol, as our source region for these is usually down near Syracuse and Utica.

Could see this going the wrong way last night at 0z, It shafts you for sure

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:lol:

care to make this interesting?

sorry...my power went out. My P&C is 12-16 but when I moved it up to Bristal it was mor like 10-14 and then to Plymouth 8-12. But look at the radar Sam...it is improving to the south and moving north. We got the first burst which you are getting and then light snow for a while and the heavier is developing as I type.

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I get paid for it, lol. Otherwise I would never do it.

Even that probably isnt enough though. You are probably right. I'm out until tomorrow late.

I know just commenting....pay or not most people couldn't do what you do. The grass is always greener in life. You like what you do and are good at it....if the only downside is lack of sleep a few times a month.... Get some sleep!

Kevin should stay cold. In fact, it's very possible it passes near or maybe just north of Messenger. Farther south than I thought.

I think up over hingham hull or even blue hill. I think it passes solidly north of me.

------

Now that Charlie sheen has some time off we need him to start posting to replace dt wxrisk. I like how he travels too. That's a party.

Things escalated in the afternoon when Sheen, currently vacationing in the Bahamas with a girlfriend, ex-wife and a porn star, reached out to TMZ. "I violently hate Chaim Levine," Sheen said. "He's a stupid, stupid little man and a p**sy punk that I'd never want to be like. That's me being polite."

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