earthlight Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 A bit OT for this regional thread, but check out the uvv's on the NAM valid 12z Friday. There is a ton of isentropic lift as the warm front lifts north and a very strong low level jet..I think somebody's going to get near 2" QPF especially with the surface low tracking a bit further to the southeast. Especially in NNJ/SE NY/portions of SNE.. where for a period of time early Friday the best isentropic lift coincides with a strong LLJ creating great upglide on the I297 surface..this could be fun to watch unfold. Unfortunately I will be sound asleep...I'm going on like two days without sleep. College FTL. Later dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I fun experiment would be to switch all mets across the board from their "home" regions to completely foreign regions. ORH_wxman could post in CO, earthlight could post in Washington, and I could post in New England. It would be interesting to see how that would go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Hmm... we could get a snowfall guess for the season.. and if your closer, I'd have to give it to you. If you lose, you have to have your gf measure snow before eason is over. 32.8\30 ftw No "gf"...will "special friend" suffice....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Will, I'm mixed here attm as well. No IP, just SN and RA mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 12 hr 06z NAM has 65+kt 925mb winds kissing the East end of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Will, I'm mixed here attm as well. No IP, just SN and RA mix. Its gone to straight rain here now. No flakes I can see. Very ugly. But it should flip back to snow when the real stuff comes along soon. Temp 32.2F. I have the Ray "death obs" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 15hr 06z NAM still tracking the surface low over Southeast MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 12 yro 06' MAN has 65+kt 925mb lips kissing the East end of my Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Its gone to straight rain here now. No flakes I can see. Very ugly. But it should flip back to snow when the real stuff comes along soon. Temp 32.2F. I have the Ray "death obs" right now. Lol 32.00000000000000000000000001 and rain. I'm only .6* warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Its gone to straight rain here now. No flakes I can see. Very ugly. But it should flip back to snow when the real stuff comes along soon. Temp 32.2F. I have the Ray "death obs" right now. The NAM definitely got a hair colder across the board on it's 06z run which could bode well for you..925mb low winds up shrinking southeast of your location and tracking South of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 32.8\30 ftw No "gf"...will "special friend" suffice....lol Your latitude is winning tonight. LOL!! Okay, Thats a deal. Better if she is like Deb and thinks i'm crazy with the snow measurements to be exact. She has to know your seriously snow delerious too. One pic of her measuring would suffice. If I lose, I lose my Precious Bruins cap.. Ugh.. Details to be worked out. Your BY total or mine? 32.5/30 light SN/RA 0.7" new snow since 8Pm Yday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The NAM definitely got a hair colder across the board on it's 06z run which could bode well for you..925mb low winds up shrinking southeast of your location and tracking South of BOS. Wow, the NAM is colder than the 00z run....sh**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The NAM definitely got a hair colder across the board on it's 06z run which could bode well for you..925mb low winds up shrinking southeast of your location and tracking South of BOS. Yeah I can't believe how cold the 06z NAM is...esp at about 950mb...but I think it got a tad warmer above 850mb. Regardless I'm surprised that I went to all rain in this latest batch. That was not expected, however the lift is probably crappy right now. The RUC also shows the mid-level warmth at its furthest north point in the short term right about now, so it should go back to wet snow for several hours when the bulk of the precip shield moves back in over the next few hours. But I still did not want to see mostly rain out of this burst. That was semi alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Def. a rain\snow mix, here. 32.7\30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah I can't believe how cold the 06z NAM is...esp at about 950mb...but I think it got a tad warmer above 850mb. Regardless I'm surprised that I went to all rain in this latest batch. That was not expected, however the lift is probably crappy right now. The RUC also shows the mid-level warmth at its furthest north point in the short term right about now, so it should go back to wet snow for several hours when the bulk of the precip shield moves back in over the next few hours. But I still did not want to see mostly rain out of this burst. That was semi alarming. I lost my flakes too in the last 15 minutes. I'll be back on in 3 hours when the heavier qpf moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Def. a rain\snow mix, here. 32.7\30 We'll find out fairly quickly in the next 30 minutes whether the RUC is correct and every other model. I should go back to aggregates when this next batch moves in and establishes itself...if it doesn;t go to aggregates within about 20 minutes of it moving overhead, then we might have a problem for this front stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Wow, this keeps heading south, lol. I think far northern tier of MA might stay snow... certainly SNH. We'll see if we can muster up 6" up this way, lol... QPF has dropped to near or under 1/2, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 MSV has gone to heavy snow I believe...1/4 mile vis...thats a great sign for here. So we should be able to go back when real omega gets overhead. I think this last batch had terrible omega as the precip has been cellular in nature out ahead of the main thrust....RUC has showed that we get a little warm punch around now too in the mid-levels. So a layer probably snuck above freezing and combined with crappy lift, probably caused the mix/rain. But again, I'll be gauging the next moderate batch once its overhead for a good 20-30 min....if it doesn't go back to the aggregate flakes, then I think we might be boned. Or at least not in very good shape...maybe it flips to snow by 5am or something, but that would mean we "waste" qpf on trying to cool it back down in the mid-levels and boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 We'll find out fairly quickly in the next 30 minutes whether the RUC is correct and every other model. I should go back to aggregates when this next batch moves in and establishes itself...if it doesn;t go to aggregates within about 20 minutes of it moving overhead, then we might have a problem for this front stuff. The RUC was a junk pile in the plains/OV as it was grossly overdoing WAA and underdoing deep, moist convective pressure falls along the front. Some of its 24 hr runs had the CCB dumping snow into northern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 MSV has gone to heavy snow I believe...1/4 mile vis...thats a great sign for here. So we should be able to go back when real omega gets overhead. I think this last batch had terrible omega as the precip has been cellular in nature out ahead of the main thrust....RUC has showed that we get a little warm punch around now too in the mid-levels. So a layer probably snuck above freezing and combined with crappy lift, probably caused the mix/rain. But again, I'll be gauging the next moderate batch once its overhead for a good 20-30 min....if it doesn't go back to the aggregate flakes, then I think we might be boned. Or at least not in very good shape...maybe it flips to snow by 5am or something, but that would mean we "waste" qpf on trying to cool it back down in the mid-levels and boundary layer. A sneaky scooter layer lol I think you were sweating it too much....this is clearly gonna be a decent little event, clutched from the jaws of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The RUC was a junk pile in the plains/OV as it was grossly overdoing WAA and underdoing deep, moist convective pressure falls along the front. Some of its 24 hr runs had the CCB dumping snow into northern MI. Well that would be a great sign for here...but I'm being fairly skeptical for now. I went with my gut on climo on these and hit it relatively hard up near the NH border and kept it fairly trivial here (like 2-4")...but if we can rip snow until 9 or 10am then we will end up with 5"+, I am pretty confident of that. But I have doubts as to whether we can do that. I am about 3-4 miles north of KORH site...I think the rain just spooked me a bit with that last batch, but it does bring up some valid concerns. I kept the 6" stuff up near rt 2 (which here is about 18-20 miles north of me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I'm out. 32.7\30 and a R\S mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well that would be a great sign for here...but I'm being fairly skeptical for now. I went with my gut on climo on these and hit it relatively hard up near the NH border and kept it fairly trivial here (like 2-4")...but if we can rip snow until 9 or 10am then we will end up with 5"+, I am pretty confident of that. But I have doubts as to whether we can do that. I am about 3-4 miles north of KORH site...I think the rain just spooked me a bit with that last batch, but it does bring up some valid concerns. I kept the 6" stuff up near rt 2 (which here is about 18-20 miles north of me). Your thinking is likely about right on. The main reason for the big fail in the plains/OV amongst European guidance/SREF/RUC was the significance of the convective pressure falls/height falls through 21-06Z. WAA was also shunted S and the track was much flatter as the wave itself aloft was still amplifying/deepening at that time. Even HPC was tossing it due to "convective feedback" (I was not happy when they made that call) DMC > synoptic forcing and the RUC and Euro/UK failed miserably as a result. The flat tracks won out this way--but there should be a decent amount of Gulf Stream WAA/wave amplification to force stronger height rises where your gut feelings are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Back to all snow here...the aggregates have returned. Huge parachutes falling. They mixed in for about 5 minutes and then took over. The BL sucks right now so this is very elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 HFD over to -SN with 2 mi vis...so they must be getting some snow mixed in if they aren't all snow. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 GYX goes full in with 10-16... Not sure the models support that amount of liquid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 We need to get the steady stuff in here without the chopped up radar look....we are basically "Wasting" this precip. Its snowing aggregates but its not sticking well with the on and off behavior. We have some okay stuff overhead, but need to get that stuff in SW CT and NJ in here prior to 13z..and let it rip for a few hours with a snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 r/ip/sn mix here in the swamplands of chelmsford ma edit all snow atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Currently all rain attm now. 32.5/30 I'm out I'll be back at 6AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 29/28, dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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