Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM with another shift SE..Every little bit helps avoid a prolonged wind, high dewpoint siege ? nam went nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Almost 100kts at 850 over HYA tomorrow on the NAM. Intense stuff. yeah...not sure but that might be the strongest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah...not sure but that might be the strongest run yet. There's an inversion obviously, but yikes..lol. Maybe one of those things where int se mass could rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ? nam went nw No in fact if I was MPM and Pete I would be encouraged, front end snow, ice, drizzle then a good thump to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM has a 2" liquid jackpot just west of ORH. Maybe 1" before the changeover here in the 5-7am timeframe? Looks to me like the 3-5" advisory amounts in S NH verify this run, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There's an inversion obviously, but yikes..lol. Maybe one of those things where int se mass could rip. yeah it's going to be interesting. it's also really ripping on the backside now too. that's become stronger over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Maybe an 1" or 2 on the backside around 00z to 3z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No in fact if I was MPM and Pete I would be encouraged, front end snow, ice, drizzle then a good thump to end. Yeah, Steve. I wasn't grimacing that much. It'll be close between what happens on the front end and backend snows. Let's see what else we see this morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No in fact if I was MPM and Pete I would be encouraged, front end snow, ice, drizzle then a good thump to end. who cares its 50f+ here with 2-3 inches of rain and my basements going to flood, I could care less about snow falling in the alps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM with another shift SE..Every little bit helps avoid a prolonged wind, high dewpoint siege at least you can leave your cars in the driveway and the rain will wash off the salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No in fact if I was MPM and Pete I would be encouraged, front end snow, ice, drizzle then a good thump to end. can you show me where the NAM shifted SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM is quite the soaker. Consequence of getting a decent polar high to slip E instead of N - quite consistent with a rising NAO for the snow lovers... Regarding that, couple of observations this morning. Nice blizzard going on in central and Northern Alaska. This is quite consistent with a +AO, although it cannot be blamed on that outrightly... The AO covers a large area. But having lows tracking at high latitudes - in general - is very +AO -like. Teleconnectors offer some hope for March: -- What on previous nightly computations was hinted as a rising PNA is now doing so concertedly and demonstratively at CPC. The question is, to what magnitude is that recovery going to be? CDC shows the rise, but they hault at around -.5SD (estimating), whereas the CPC shows the rise and about half the members tickle 0SD. I think what is paramount here in using the PNA at the moment is the modality more than the ending mode. This is a differentiating process in other words, and we won't really know what the magnitude of recovery is going to be [probably] for a couple few more days of nightly runs. It has been getting more demonstrative per nightly runs for the last 4 or 5 days, so for all we know, tonight's may range a few members into positive values ... and so on. -- The NAO is showing less positive value success ending in 4 or 5 days, and then most members at CPC begin to decline. The CDC offers this same suggestion, with at least one channel showing a modestly negative value then persisting from about D5 out to the foreseeable future. The combination of these two bullet points does not send a very warm signal - despite the fact that tomorrow may demonlish the snow pack back to central New England. We just may do it over bare ground barring somethinng unforeseen - annoying by the way. Doesn't sound like the atmosphere got the memo from my druthers department. The PAC northern domain, however, is intriguing. The West Pacific Oscillation has a day or two lead time correlation on the EPO, and they are quite positive in coefficience. The WPO is nearing -3 SD and is locked between there and -2.5SD for the next 2-3weeks. The EPO, on the other hand, is currently negative, then nuetral, then modestly negative out in time. What that means is that the EPO could correct lower at any time, and we could see better ridge verification poking into western N/A above 45N as a correction to modeling. That would mean enhanced NW flow regimes through Canada, where there is a positive anomaly cryosphere remaining. That also does not bode well for warmth. Clearly, there is a subtle albeit real emerging cold signal beginning in better earnest as we get into March. Question is then, would there be storm frequency to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 at least you can leave your cars in the driveway and the rain will wash off the salt. Man you're big on 50's an entire snowpack melting up to ORH tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man you're big on 50's an entire snowpack melting up to ORH tomorrow Rain at 50* and rain at 32.9* rinse the salt equally. 26.6/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I haven't seen the FRH grid, or any other finer resolution analysis ...but just eye-balling the 36 hour panel off the NAM looks like a dynamical flip to moderate or heavy snow along RT 2, W of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah, that's one of the reason there's such a difference. Like I mentioned BOX has their far northern zones at 3-5" and Gray has their far southern zones at 8-12". lol. I find this interesting but no one else is posting, so I'll just shut up. haha. it is certainly unusual. It is usually the other way around, with GYX being more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I love how the NAM rips warning level snow after temps crash. So damn close to a blue snow bomb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man you're big on 50's an entire snowpack melting up to ORH tomorrow where did you get that from?? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I love how the NAM rips warning level snow after temps crash. So damn close to a blue snow bomb here. It's keeping me from accomplishing things haha. I'm in Merrimack NH tommorow and its so damn close to a longer front end dump besides a few inches and so close to ripping for a while after 21z as well. 12z gfs and euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I haven't seen the FRH grid, or any other finer resolution analysis ...but just eye-balling the 36 hour panel off the NAM looks like a dynamical flip to moderate or heavy snow along RT 2, W of 495. 'scuse the ignorant question--what is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is that 3-5'' from BOX on the front end or the back end? Seems pretty aggressive if it's on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I haven't seen the FRH grid, or any other finer resolution analysis ...but just eye-balling the 36 hour panel off the NAM looks like a dynamical flip to moderate or heavy snow along RT 2, W of 495. What are you using the antiquated stuff for? Break out the DIFAX and the FOUS while you are at it lol. You need to get on the BUFKIT train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Scott, I find this intersting: 18000955559 00714 172006 40009898 24017999468 07414 100610 41009998 30084999670 15512 940412 46000000 36034939129 -2717 983428 29989389 That's the ALB NAM ... shouldn't that be construed as straight up ripper snow storm? That's about 13" of blue impactor there - they don't even have an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is that 3-5'' from BOX on the front end or the back end? Seems pretty aggressive if it's on the front end. front end. Then it doesn't mention rain and says "tapering" late morning...? Im assuming tapering means "changing to rain?" * TIMING... AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE TIME OF MORNING COMMUTE TAPERING BY LATE MORNING TOWARDS THE NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What are you using the antiquated stuff for? Break out the DIFAX and the FOUS while you are at it lol. You need to get on the BUFKIT train. ...not where I work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 front end. Then it doesn't mention rain and says "tapering" late morning...? Im assuming tapering means "changing to rain?" * TIMING... AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE TIME OF MORNING COMMUTE TAPERING BY LATE MORNING TOWARDS THE NORTH. I'm thinking maybe 1-2'' before the floodgates open, then who the hell knows what on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 With the qpf the NAM's spitting out, there will be some pretty heavy rates. It will be interesting to see if that can help some snow chances in spite of questionable circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ...not where I work... It's free...you just download the program on your home computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 With the qpf the NAM's spitting out, there will be some pretty heavy rates. It will be interesting to see if that can help some snow chances in spite of questionable circumstances. Just checked the NAM soundings for here, and it looks like 36-42 hour is all blue snow. Cutting it close at H8, but it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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