weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I am llving on the line and the srefs disturb me. BOX has you at 9-14" while 20 miles south of you are at 2-5". Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Me, you and a dog named Boo. It would comfort me to see those SREFs dive south 100 miles. I hope none of the younguns are here this morrning, Eric. They won't have a clue in hell what you mean. 20.8/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Euro had sleet for Eric and Brian for at least a few hours it seems...near 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I hope none of the younguns are here this morrning, Eric. They won't have a clue in hell what you mean. 20.8/0 I'm sure that old fart ski_MRG knows what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Another bluebird, below zero morning here. Call it a weather breeder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks to me like heavy winds in CAA backside. Man that pressure rises like a Mofo. One thing I have noticed is this seems to be moving really fast, less precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm sure that old fart ski_MRG knows what it is. He's hanging out with Bobby McGee Finally a ski country special I AM the new screwzone for winter 2010-2011 Still less than last year's embarrasment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I hope none of the younguns are here this morrning, Eric. They won't have a clue in hell what you mean. 20.8/0 That song was bad when I was a kid and it's still bad. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CveSbWeZFQk&feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Me, you and a dog named Boo. It would comfort me to see those SREFs dive south 100 miles. yes indeed...I don't feel as invested in this storm though....doing other stuff, partner's bday, looking forward to spring. Would LOVE a heavy snow day tomorrow though...but not too disappointed if it doesn't happen. Save your fingernails...you'll need them to dig the mud out of your boots next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Channel 4's map has the warmth winning out with 1-3" to Concord. If you can't tell already, I'm going to be at my cousins in S. NH tommorow about 15-25 miles south of where there are WSW for 8-12" snow/sleet. Manchester to concord area I could see getting 2" or 8", hoping for some cold 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BOX has you at 9-14" while 20 miles south of you are at 2-5". Good luck. Box doesnt forecast for me...but you are right...it will b awicked cutoff. I'm 15 miles nnw of CON at 675 ft. CON is on the river at 325 ft. the line could be between those 2 points...oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 9 to 13in in the forecast for me. Likely some taint around noon tomorrow but should be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Box doesnt forecast for me...but you are right...it will b awicked cutoff. I'm 15 miles nnw of CON at 675 ft. CON is on the river at 325 ft. the line could be between those 2 points...oy! Yeah, that's one of the reason there's such a difference. Like I mentioned BOX has their far northern zones at 3-5" and Gray has their far southern zones at 8-12". lol. I find this interesting but no one else is posting, so I'll just shut up. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 very impressive dynamics modeled between 30 and 36 hours. You have very intense low-level convergence aided by that 65-95 kt llj underneath the right entrance region of a 160 kt polar jet steak. Some elevated instability, seen in both elevated CAPE and convective instability is evident in PVD around 18z and just after on the both the NAM and the GFS. Given the impressive lift, I would expect that instability to be realize with some thunderstorms over SE Mass and RI and very heavy precipitation rates for about a 6 hour period late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well--this is about as ridculous a map as I've ever seen. From Channel 22. What's with that "jackpot" placement? lol Channel 40's amounts may be off, but at least the dispersion looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Goodmorning!! Looks like a soaker, okx going 52 here friday with winds south gusting to 49 and 1-2 inches of rain. YAY! Bye Bye snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 very impressive dynamics modeled between 30 and 36 hours. You have very intense low-level convergence aided by that 65-95 kt llj underneath the right entrance region of a 160 kt polar jet steak. Some elevated instability, seen in both elevated CAPE and convective instability is evident in PVD around 18z and just after on the both the NAM and the GFS. Given the impressive lift, I would expect that instability to be realize with some thunderstorms over SE Mass and RI and very heavy precipitation rates for about a 6 hour period late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. ... Good insights! The upper air prog is impressive with a strong ext jet region over central/N NE, with as you mentioned the entrance region of a separate polar velocity core nearing the MA... We like to look for that couplet for intense QPF - Also, that may be in part why the NAM is streaking the low out ahead of the best mid level vorticity maxima; at 42 hours, we notice that there is a moderately intense sfc low in the GOM, and an elongated trough back down toward Cape Code Bay - meanwhile, at that time there is an intense vorticity core cutting E off of LI. This elongation of the sfc features is likely a response to the vort max screwing off the upper MA - but enters the question, could that mean that a correction SW with that GOM sfc center be underway? It's a valid question in my mind because the 6z was more impressive with these observations than the 00z. It probably won't mean a heck of a lot as far as amounts and p-types and so forth, but it is an interesting nuance nonetheless... Although, I suppose it IS possible that if the verification was a lower level circulation closer to the better mid lvl dynamics, than the the track actually goes somewhat SE as well as slow down - that "could" offer some headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Also, I am unsure what is going on out in western Ma and eastern NY above White Plaines - that region could get dumped on by a lot of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There's a 97 kt LLJ at PVD at 860mb at 20z tomorrow...ridiculous lol. LLWS city for those flying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 There's a 97 kt LLJ at PVD at 860mb at 20z tomorrow...ridiculous lol. LLWS city for those flying... Yeah I see some big problems for PVD/BOS tomorrow, because of that. BTW, 56 kt winds at TXKF the other day..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah I see some big problems for PVD/BOS tomorrow, because of that. BTW, 56 kt winds at TXKF the other day..lol. yeah that was nuts...it was also 50 degrees in the middle of the afternoon. OT, but TXKF didn't have much wind shear at least. There's a 200 ft hill in St. George that can cause bit of terrain induced WS/turbulence on a NNE wind. 15 kt in the lowest 200 ft was the worst I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah that was nuts...it was also 50 degrees in the middle of the afternoon. OT, but TXKF didn't have much wind shear at least. There's a 200 ft hill in St. George that can cause bit of terrain induced WS/turbulence on a NNE wind. 15 kt in the lowest 200 ft was the worst I saw. That's interesting. I never really looked at the terrain around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM is quite the soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That's interesting. I never really looked at the terrain around there. Lots of rolling hills, highest elevation is 249 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM is quite the soaker. Congrats, Rick and Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM with another shift SE..Every little bit helps avoid a prolonged wind, high dewpoint siege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Almost 100kts at 850 over HYA tomorrow on the NAM. Intense stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM with another shift SE..Every little bit helps avoid a prolonged wind, high dewpoint siege It went nw of 06z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM is quite the soaker. not looking good, basement issues for sure, thats 1-3 inches of rain with snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 pretty wild day per the nam tomorrow and tomorrow night. looks like a flip back to snow for at least some of the eastern areas tomorrow evening too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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