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Feb 25 Obs/disco


CoastalWx

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Me, you and a dog named Boo. It would comfort me to see those SREFs dive south 100 miles.

yes indeed...I don't feel as invested in this storm though....doing other stuff, partner's bday, looking forward to spring. Would LOVE a heavy snow day tomorrow though...but not too disappointed if it doesn't happen. Save your fingernails...you'll need them to dig the mud out of your boots next month.

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Box doesnt forecast for me...but you are right...it will b awicked cutoff. I'm 15 miles nnw of CON at 675 ft. CON is on the river at 325 ft. the line could be between those 2 points...oy!

Yeah, that's one of the reason there's such a difference. Like I mentioned BOX has their far northern zones at 3-5" and Gray has their far southern zones at 8-12". lol.

I find this interesting but no one else is posting, so I'll just shut up. haha.

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gfs_850_036l.gifvery impressive dynamics modeled between 30 and 36 hours. You have very intense low-level convergence aided by that 65-95 kt llj underneath the right entrance region of a 160 kt polar jet steak. Some elevated instability, seen in both elevated CAPE and convective instability is evident in PVD around 18z and just after on the both the NAM and the GFS. Given the impressive lift, I would expect that instability to be realize with some thunderstorms over SE Mass and RI and very heavy precipitation rates for about a 6 hour period late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon.

gfs_250_036l.gif

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very impressive dynamics modeled between 30 and 36 hours. You have very intense low-level convergence aided by that 65-95 kt llj underneath the right entrance region of a 160 kt polar jet steak. Some elevated instability, seen in both elevated CAPE and convective instability is evident in PVD around 18z and just after on the both the NAM and the GFS. Given the impressive lift, I would expect that instability to be realize with some thunderstorms over SE Mass and RI and very heavy precipitation rates for about a 6 hour period late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon.

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Good insights!

The upper air prog is impressive with a strong ext jet region over central/N NE, with as you mentioned the entrance region of a separate polar velocity core nearing the MA... We like to look for that couplet for intense QPF -

Also, that may be in part why the NAM is streaking the low out ahead of the best mid level vorticity maxima; at 42 hours, we notice that there is a moderately intense sfc low in the GOM, and an elongated trough back down toward Cape Code Bay - meanwhile, at that time there is an intense vorticity core cutting E off of LI. This elongation of the sfc features is likely a response to the vort max screwing off the upper MA - but enters the question, could that mean that a correction SW with that GOM sfc center be underway? It's a valid question in my mind because the 6z was more impressive with these observations than the 00z.

It probably won't mean a heck of a lot as far as amounts and p-types and so forth, but it is an interesting nuance nonetheless... Although, I suppose it IS possible that if the verification was a lower level circulation closer to the better mid lvl dynamics, than the the track actually goes somewhat SE as well as slow down - that "could" offer some headaches.

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Yeah I see some big problems for PVD/BOS tomorrow, because of that.

BTW, 56 kt winds at TXKF the other day..lol.

yeah that was nuts...it was also 50 degrees in the middle of the afternoon.

OT, but TXKF didn't have much wind shear at least. There's a 200 ft hill in St. George that can cause bit of terrain induced WS/turbulence on a NNE wind. 15 kt in the lowest 200 ft was the worst I saw.

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yeah that was nuts...it was also 50 degrees in the middle of the afternoon.

OT, but TXKF didn't have much wind shear at least. There's a 200 ft hill in St. George that can cause bit of terrain induced WS/turbulence on a NNE wind. 15 kt in the lowest 200 ft was the worst I saw.

That's interesting. I never really looked at the terrain around there.

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