Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I wonder what this first batch will fall as sleet or flakes? Dew is 20 Temp is 34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 the flood watch is pretty much for ponding. It mentions urban and poor drainage flooding...some small streams to near bank full. I think it was yesterday that BOX/ERC ran a scenario based on 2" of rainfall and no rivers reached flood stage. Again I would love to see those numbers, wonder if they account for little absorption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Again I would love to see those numbers, wonder if they account for little absorption. They have hydrologists that work at the ERC...I'm sure they account for all kinds of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is it time to start looking at the RUC? lol We've established that the RUC is horrific on coastal lows, how about Ohio Valley lows? I'm sure it just sucks in general outside of about 6-10 hours... but its got a fairly cold profile for several hours in MA north of I-90. At face value (which isn't much on the RUC) its like 4 hours of wet snow at the beginning north of the Pike. You are obviously the professional and know your area well, Will, but I think you could do 2-3" on the front and another couple on the back. Anyone with 1,000ft or more of elevation in northern ORH county though does look like a 3-6 incher before changing over. Hopefully it surprises some of you folks. The RUC is usually too warm at this range in both coastals and SWFEs from the OH Valley. So its interesting that its showing a reasonably cold profile at 12-16 hours N of the pike. We'll see. I'm not totally sold on a several hour burst of heavy snow at the beginning, but its definitely a possibility. If the antecedent air mass was a bit colder at all levels, then I'd be a lot more excited about it. But the very dry mid-levels right now should be a plus...if we can get some big omega slamming into that then we'll see a lot of evap cooling and might be able to halt the snow line's progress for a few hours. I'd feel a lot better if I was about 20 miles north closer to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The RUC is usually too warm at this range in both coastals and SWFEs from the OH Valley. So its interesting that its showing a reasonably cold profile at 12-16 hours N of the pike. We'll see. I'm not totally sold on a several hour burst of heavy snow at the beginning, but its definitely a possibility. If the antecedent air mass was a bit colder at all levels, then I'd be a lot more excited about it. But the very dry mid-levels right now should be a plus...if we can get some big omega slamming into that then we'll see a lot of evap cooling and might be able to halt the snow line's progress for a few hours. I'd feel a lot better if I was about 20 miles north closer to the NH border. Obnoxiously frigid and dry all week and then it's done as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I wonder what this first batch will fall as sleet or flakes? Dew is 20 Temp is 34.5 I'm almost ready to bet you start as flakes... how long you have them is more the question to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Lol Yea hook line and sinker again this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 They have hydrologists that work at the ERC...I'm sure they account for all kinds of stuff. Do not get me started, ask Box mets, never mind. Just wondering about runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Do not get me started, ask Box mets, never mind. Just wondering about runoff. Wasn't the problem that that particular river flooding last year was not covered by flood warnings because of some bureaucratic nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, sounds like its sleeting here? edit: its graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup, exactly why my official call is 2-10" Oh--you're not in ORH anymore? 33.8/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wasn't the problem that that particular river flooding last year was not covered by flood warnings because of some bureaucratic nonsense? It's complicated and it does involve RFC, hydrologists etc but literally water over the dam, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, sounds like its sleeting here? I had a few flakes/graupel here earlier this afternoon just for a minute or two, downstream reports out of the high country of pa is sleet, radar out that way looks very convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Oh--you're not in ORH anymore? 33.8/16 No, I'm just away for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The RUC is usually too warm at this range in both coastals and SWFEs from the OH Valley. So its interesting that its showing a reasonably cold profile at 12-16 hours N of the pike. We'll see. I'm not totally sold on a several hour burst of heavy snow at the beginning, but its definitely a possibility. If the antecedent air mass was a bit colder at all levels, then I'd be a lot more excited about it. But the very dry mid-levels right now should be a plus...if we can get some big omega slamming into that then we'll see a lot of evap cooling and might be able to halt the snow line's progress for a few hours. I'd feel a lot better if I was about 20 miles north closer to the NH border. I'm cautiously optimistic 10 miles from the VT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic 10 miles from the VT border. I'd be shocked if you don't see a net gain. You'll mix with pellets and might even change to a cold rain for a time, but you should get a nice pop of snow on the front end and then perhaps an inch or two on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd feel a lot better if I was about 20 miles north closer to the NH border. Id feel a lot better if I was 20 miles closer to Worc. Maybe I can get lucky on the back end with my elevation and get a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd be shocked if you don't see a net gain. You'll mix with pellets and might even change to a cold rain for a time, but you should get a nice pop of snow on the front end and then perhaps an inch or two on the back end. Yea, i told him that, this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Id feel a lot better if I was 20 miles closer to Worc. Maybe I can get lucky on the back end with my elevation and get a coating. You'd be alot better of if you were 100' higher.....800' of elevation is a pretty important point of dilineation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 33/17, Everything coming together nicely. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 33/17, Everything coming together nicely. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Big winter almost over for most of us, almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Big winter almost over for most of us, almost over. Winter will somehow last longer down in the Berkshires than it will at 4,000ft in northern VT. Bank on it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic 10 miles from the VT border. I went to work for a few hours with flood watches creeping towards us and now most of N. Franklin Co. is in the 4-6" range on Taunton's map. 37/18 nice to see the low dp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Big winter almost over for most of us, almost over. Nah, you all get pounded in March/April. Pattern reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nah, you all get pounded in March/April. Pattern reset. The more I think about it, the more way me need one, huge event to get alot more snow...obviously not applicable to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I like: MAZ002-250915- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 409 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN...SNOW WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS AROUND 12. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 33.6/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nah, you all get pounded in March/April. Pattern reset. +1... though its probably not going to be able to rival the 1-2 footer that this area got on April 29-30th last year. Only time I've legitimately had a "snowpack" in May in a lower elevation. Skied 21" of fresh pow on Mansfield the last day of April last year... the law of averages says we don't get another big April snowstorm up here this season; but the law of averages says we are due in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Big winter almost over for most of us, almost over. I hope so, I love March snow, but the euro ens really have put a damper on the party in the long term. Maybe Gfs has the right idea in the longer range, could not be more opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Every rip and readers favorite model continues advertising a 3-5 inch snow event for Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 +1... though its probably not going to be able to rival the 1-2 footer that this area got on April 29-30th last year. Only time I've legitimately had a "snowpack" in May in a lower elevation. Skied 21" of fresh pow on Mansfield the last day of April last year... the law of averages says we don't get another big April snowstorm up here this season; but the law of averages says we are due in March. I have 0 recollection of that taking place....shows you how completely checked out I was, by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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