CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Swings into ern mass between 00z and 03z. Maybe a nice and quick wet snow whitener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah you are definitely going to want some elevation if you are right on the boundary zone between snow/mix/rain. I could see some of the lower elevations, in southern NH especially, seeing a 33-34F pounding snow that is slow to accumulate, while at 1,000ft and higher thats 31-32F and accumulating much more efficiently. Also, those walking the tightrope may also see a change to rain if precipitation lightens up, but snow during heavier periods. Luckily, this all looks to come in one big QPF blob so we shouldn't see too much varying of pcpn rates. This isn't like a long duration storm with light/moderate rates, but a short duration with heavy fall rates... that does help argue for dynamic cooling to wet snow in a lot of areas that might mix or rain if this was a lighter/moderate event. Just checked, where Im staying is at 230' el. Looks like I'll see some heavy snow tommorow, but its borderline on how much accumulates. I think 3-6" is a good call. Although 5 miles away has a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 They aren't obsessed with snow like many of us. They don't get irate or depressed if they get rain ..simply because it happens more often than not factoring in climo I'm a big-time snow freak. I saw the radar the morning of December 23, 1997 and hopped in the car... and drove up Route 24 toward MetroWest. I'm glad I did it because that was the least snowiest winter of my lifetime. MBY barely had 2 inches that season..... I'm so used to the busts after living down here for so long it no longer bothers me....but this year was tough to take watching NYC and the CT Shoreline get hammered so many times.....I don't get in the car like I used to for big events because I now live vicariously through you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah that's certainly reasonable. how close to you is that location? i know you've said a lot of times that your climate is a lot like IJD. LOL?? Are you serious with that? I've said it resembles a slightly warmer version of ORH..But it's nothing like IJD.. they are in that SE CT screwzone..at the northern end of it. Nothing between them and the warm sound except flatlands and casinos to stop the SE warming. They avg like 27 inches of snow. i avg around 60. I am about 20 miles or so north of them...but they are 2 completely different climates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The GFS really has a nice area of lift in the backside comma head. It looks like it gets ctrl mass good at 00z. H7 low almost wants to close off, but nice fronto area. Continues to be the warmest model on the front end of the storm. Looks like only a very brief start as snow here. The back end of this system could be interesting for a couple hours. The models do have pretty good burst for 2-3 hours (fairly heavy rates) after all the thicknesses crash back SE. Might have to watch for a quick 1-2" and a flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 74 kts at 950 on the GFS tomorrow. Phil needs to find the highest sand dune possible on the weenie mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 A few snowshowers this afternoon.Just leaving 2k. Menacing sky, trouble afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not that it matters too much, but I think the far northern tier of CT may be able to squeeze out a quick 1-2" (mainly the hills) late tonight before the changeover. For whatever reason, I'm starting to feel bullish on a bit more snow in parts of interior SNE, especially as evaporational cooling helps this start as snow over the interior. There are some hints of sneaky .1-.2" of QPF over a lot of the area in a sub-freezing column above 950mb... I think evap cooling at the start could bring that accumulating snow level down into the hills of northern CT, before the real warm air works in aloft. I think I'll start as pure sleet for a few hours then rain.. I think though that I'll get 1-2 tomorrow on the backend. i like the back for snows here more than the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 A few snowshowers this afternoon.Just leaving 2k. Menacing sky, trouble afoot. I bet you pull 6-8" and go to some rain. Net gain by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just checked, where Im staying is at 230' el. Looks like I'll see some heavy snow tommorow, but its borderline on how much accumulates. I think 3-6" is a good call. Although 5 miles away has a warning. Where are you? What county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Continues to be the warmest model on the front end of the storm. Looks like only a very brief start as snow here. The back end of this system could be interesting for a couple hours. The models do have pretty good burst for 2-3 hours (fairly heavy rates) after all the thicknesses crash back SE. Might have to watch for a quick 1-2" and a flash freeze. I've only played around with the soundings, but what's your gut tell you for ORH on the front end? It looks like just to your north, could have some sort of isothermal snow for a few hours. Seems like critical thicknesses stall as omega increases between 09z and 12z, maybe by weenie ridge. I wonder if that area is the difference between 1-2" vs 5-6" just a few miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What I've seen countless times over the years is IJD being the ending point of the torch in cases like this. they'll spike to 48-50 and I'll hang in the upper 30's to 40ish and then quickly drop back down. I guess i won't be totally shocked if it gets a bit warmer than that..But that warm air generally has a tough time getting up and over the hills that start just north of IJD. It's a fine line..but 9 times out of 10 that is what happens..maybe tomorrow is that 1 time..but if i was betting I would say not You can almost certainly count on the CAA roaring in and bringing temps down very fast once the front passes through, BOX calling for gusts to 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You can almost certainly count on the CAA roaring in and bringing temps down very fast once the front passes through, BOX calling for gusts to 60 mph. I don't think winds aregonna be that strong..but I do think it'll flip to wet snow very quickly once the winds shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Where are you? What county? Well, I'm usually just NE of ORH. Tonight I'm in NW Hillsborough county, just south of Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think I'll start as pure sleet for a few hours then rain.. I think though that I'll get 1-2 tomorrow on the backend. i like the back for snows here more than the front That is just begging to be editted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think I'll start as pure sleet for a few hours then rain.. I think though that I'll get 1-2 tomorrow on the backend. i like the back for snows here more than the front Yeah you're probably right... all models show a nice burst of .1-.25" in your neck of the woods after the column goes to snow. And if there can be a good ending to a rain event, getting some snow on the backside is it. At least it keeps things looking fresh, puts some snow on the bushes and trees, and ends the event with a nice wintry appeal. Coastalwx is right... 18z GFS does develop a nice looking (but quick moving) CCB across much of SNE. It just depends on how fast the sfc cools as aloft it'll cool quite quickly. Should be a situation where you at 1,000ft pick up 2" of wind-blown snow while 500ft and lower ends up struggling to accumulate and ends up with a half inch plaster coating. That used to always annoy me growing up in the Hudson Valley. I lived at 240ft and we'd change over to a 3/4-1 mile vis light snow that just wouldn't accumulate as temps quickly fall from 40 to 33-34F, but down in the valley it would take its sweet time dropping that final couple degrees while Logan11 a few miles away but up above 1,000ft would be accumulating nicely in that 3/4 mile vis snow at 31F. Those hill towns in western Albany County would also get several inches in a change-over situation while the valley gets some measly coating of white. Always annoyed the heck out of me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I've only played around with the soundings, but what's your gut tell you for ORH on the front end? It looks like just to your north, could have some sort of isothermal snow for a few hours. Seems like critical thicknesses stall as omega increases between 09z and 12z, maybe by weenie ridge. I wonder if that area is the difference between 1-2" vs 5-6" just a few miles north. On these very marginal front end thump setups, I'm usually sitting right on the line for a few hours. 2/26/08 I had like 3" of wet snow while they had 6"+ up just north of weenie ridge. 3/31/01 was like 4" of paste here while they got 15" in Ashburnham (ridiculous gradient). 12/30/97 we had 3.5" of cement before a flip. All those cases if you went about 10 miles south, it was almost nothing. Its not an easy position to be in for forecasting it. My gut says I'll probably get a burst of wet snow and maybe an inch or so...perhaps 2" before a flip to some marginal sleet/zr for a time and then a cold 34F rain before going back to snow before ending. Up by Hunchback they could get several inches. But I'm holding out some hope that we can get the huge omega in here and keep it an isothermal snow bomb for several hours longer which would be pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Now the wife is pissed because she planned on shopping in Burlington Friday. Showed her the BOX map I still think she should go. Skiing tnight ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well, I'm usually just NE of ORH. Tonight I'm in NW Hillsborough county, just south of Manchester. Ahh ok. I sort of figured you weren't in ORH judging by your posts. MHT is going to be a battle ground tomorrow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL?? Are you serious with that? I've said it resembles a slightly warmer version of ORH..But it's nothing like IJD.. they are in that SE CT screwzone..at the northern end of it. Nothing between them and the warm sound except flatlands and casinos to stop the SE warming. They avg like 27 inches of snow. i avg around 60. I am about 20 miles or so north of them...but they are 2 completely different climates. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 On these very marginal front end thump setups, I'm usually sitting right on the line for a few hours. 2/26/08 I had like 3" of wet snow while they had 6"+ up just north of weenie ridge. 3/31/01 was like 4" of paste here while they got 15" in Ashburnham (ridiculous gradient). 12/30/97 we had 3.5" of cement before a flip. All those cases if you went about 10 miles south, it was almost nothing. Its not an easy position to be in for forecasting it. My gut says I'll probably get a burst of wet snow and maybe an inch or so...perhaps 2" before a flip to some marginal sleet/zr for a time and then a cold 34F rain before going back to snow before ending. Up by Hunchback they could get several inches. But I'm holding out some hope that we can get the huge omega in here and keep it an isothermal snow bomb for several hours longer which would be pretty awesome. Keene Jaffrey look to be getting some good paste. What do you think further east (Ayer FIT etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ahh ok. I sort of figured you weren't in ORH judging by your posts. MHT is going to be a battle ground tomorrow, lol. Yup, exactly why my official call is 2-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Keene Jaffrey look to be getting some good paste. What do you think further east (Ayer FIT etc) Ayer and FIT will start as snow for sure I think...but they won't accumulate as efficiently given the elevation...well the W half of FIT probably will as most of the western half is higher up than the low airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 On these very marginal front end thump setups, I'm usually sitting right on the line for a few hours. 2/26/08 I had like 3" of wet snow while they had 6"+ up just north of weenie ridge. 3/31/01 was like 4" of paste here while they got 15" in Ashburnham (ridiculous gradient). 12/30/97 we had 3.5" of cement before a flip. All those cases if you went about 10 miles south, it was almost nothing. Its not an easy position to be in for forecasting it. My gut says I'll probably get a burst of wet snow and maybe an inch or so...perhaps 2" before a flip to some marginal sleet/zr for a time and then a cold 34F rain before going back to snow before ending. Up by Hunchback they could get several inches. But I'm holding out some hope that we can get the huge omega in here and keep it an isothermal snow bomb for several hours longer which would be pretty awesome. Well good luck with everything. Even though I won't see that, I always find it interesting to see how your area and up to the NH border perform. It's always a unique climo setup there...cool from a met standpoint anyways. 1-2" on the onset seems reasonable to me, for you area. Hopefully we can get that finger of waa qpf or omega that sometimes flies in here a little earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup, exactly why my official call is 2-10" Go west young man! What are you doing up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Go west young man! What are you doing up there? Just visiting family. I'm not there yet, leaving later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah you're probably right... all models show a nice burst of .1-.25" in your neck of the woods after the column goes to snow. And if there can be a good ending to a rain event, getting some snow on the backside is it. At least it keeps things looking fresh, puts some snow on the bushes and trees, and ends the event with a nice wintry appeal. Coastalwx is right... 18z GFS does develop a nice looking (but quick moving) CCB across much of SNE. It just depends on how fast the sfc cools as aloft it'll cool quite quickly. Should be a situation where you at 1,000ft pick up 2" of wind-blown snow while 500ft and lower ends up struggling to accumulate and ends up with a half inch plaster coating. That used to always annoy me growing up in the Hudson Valley. I lived at 240ft and we'd change over to a 3/4-1 mile vis light snow that just wouldn't accumulate as temps quickly fall from 40 to 33-34F, but down in the valley it would take its sweet time dropping that final couple degrees while Logan11 a few miles away but up above 1,000ft would be accumulating nicely in that 3/4 mile vis snow at 31F. Those hill towns in western Albany County would also get several inches in a change-over situation while the valley gets some measly coating of white. Always annoyed the heck out of me, lol. Exactly how I envision it happening late tomorrow. We quickly drop down to 31-32 within 30 -45 mins of fropa..and wet flakes quickly take over. It snows hard for maybe 2 hours and drops a quick 2 inches. While under 500 feet eventually snows but doesn';t stick much.Then we get ready for the clipper Sat nite...and hope Monday's storms trends colder like this one has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ayer and FIT will start as snow for sure I think...but they won't accumulate as efficiently given the elevation...well the W half of FIT probably will as most of the western half is higher up than the low airport. Is it time to start looking at the RUC? lol We've established that the RUC is horrific on coastal lows, how about Ohio Valley lows? I'm sure it just sucks in general outside of about 6-10 hours... but its got a fairly cold profile for several hours in MA north of I-90. At face value (which isn't much on the RUC) its like 4 hours of wet snow at the beginning north of the Pike. You are obviously the professional and know your area well, Will, but I think you could do 2-3" on the front and another couple on the back. Anyone with 1,000ft or more of elevation in northern ORH county though does look like a 3-6 incher before changing over. Hopefully it surprises some of you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 weenie flakes falling here in bridgton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I had some weenie flakes about 30 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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