moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 the flood watch is pretty much for ponding. It mentions urban and poor drainage flooding...some small streams to near bank full. I think it was yesterday that BOX/ERC ran a scenario based on 2" of rainfall and no rivers reached flood stage. It was yesterday. They said there were rises but no floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The man is in denial, maybe we should leave him alone.... Kevin is fine, he has an epic snowpack, and loves snow and knows a lot of it wont be there, if I had that much snow on the ground I would be pissed off too, especially knowing that Will might get a net gain, anything is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Kevin is most likely not going to reach 47 degrees. maybe, maybe not...although i would think that any cold air that gets trapped is near BDL in the valley....(but even that will be scoured out with Strong S winds)really could go either way...same thing down here, upton has us in the low to mid 50's...part of me could see it being 58 and part of me thinks it could be 40....depends on any last second wobble in the storm track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Here's what I'm going with... some could say conservative in southern NH? To light here on totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The man is in denial, maybe we should leave him alone.... No way he touches 45F... maybe 40F briefly. Especially at 1,000ft he'll be in pea soup fog at like 37F for most of the day and maybe spike to 40-42F immediately before the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No way he touches 45F... maybe 40F briefly. Especially at 1,000ft he'll be in pea soup fog at like 37F for most of the day and maybe spike to 40-42F immediately before the cold front. powder freak what are your thoughts on the system....R/S line? NW ma accums? suprise potential snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like wait and see for me.. Depending on who you ask I'm 3-12" right now I don't really have any info that allows me to narrow it down either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 maybe, maybe not...although i would think that any cold air that gets trapped is near BDL in the valley....(but even that will be scoured out with Strong S winds)really could go either way...same thing down here, upton has us in the low to mid 50's...part of me could see it being 58 and part of me thinks it could be 40....depends on any last second wobble in the storm track.... I think you're going to have no problem torching down there near the shore... but in these situations it always seems like the colder air hangs on longest in that 1,000-2,000ft elevation band. Logic would say the deeper CT valley would be where the cold air pools but it doesn't work like that. The cold air is never in the larger valleys like the Hudson, CT, Champlain, etc but in smaller valleys/hollows or up near 1,000ft and 2,000ft. I've seen it plenty of times on the mountain up here where its torching down in the lowest elevations (500ft and less) and up at the summits (4,000ft) but the cold air is locked in solid at 1K and 2K feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No way he touches 45F... maybe 40F briefly. Especially at 1,000ft he'll be in pea soup fog at like 37F for most of the day and maybe spike to 40-42F immediately before the cold front. Yeah not sure what bong he's smoking..but the only mid 40's will be in far s coastal CT. those folks down there don't understand our climate up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think you're going to have no problem torching down there near the shore... but in these situations it always seems like the colder air hangs on longest in that 1,000-2,000ft elevation band. Logic would say the deeper CT valley would be where the cold air pools but it doesn't work like that. The cold air is never in the larger valleys like the Hudson, CT, Champlain, etc but in smaller valleys/hollows or up near 1,000ft and 2,000ft. I've seen it plenty of times on the mountain up here where its torching down in the lowest elevations (500ft and less) and up at the summits (4,000ft) but the cold air is locked in solid at 1K and 2K feet. I do see your logic-guess tomorrow will tell the tale....Upton added a chance of t-storms in the pm here as we're solidly warm sectored by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Box outlines beginning of the ORH hills rather nicely. Probably because even though it's cold enough aloft for snow, the extra elevations means the difference between 34F and 31F. Snow would accumulate better in those areas, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah not sure what bong he's smoking..but the only mid 40's will be in far s coastal CT. those folks down there don't understand our climate up here upton has me at 52-54 for tomorrow...those folks up there don't understand our climate down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 powder freak what are your thoughts on the system....R/S line? NW ma accums? suprise potential snow? Honestly that's outside of my focus range for this one, but I think the R/S line will be right on the MA/NH/VT border... or rain/sleet line as I could see some sleet working its way further north (north of the H85 freezing line on the models because the WAA is really closer to H7) into the first tier of counties in VT and NH. Someone could get a pretty good 32F sleeter in that area. If there was a surprise potential I think its in the Berkshires... particularly MPM country over to PSF. This may be a rare case where MPM gets more than the polar bears in West Chesterfield. Overall though, my gut is saying that significant snows (6"+) start in the first tier of counties in VT and NH and that 6"+ zone goes all the way up into extreme southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Box outlines beginning of the ORH hills rather nicely. Probably because even though it's cold enough aloft for snow, the extra elevations means the difference between 34F and 31F. Snow would accumulate better in those areas, obviously. Where do they do that, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z only adds to me suspicion the CEF to FIT axis is going to do better on this event than most are thinking - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 upton has me at 54 for tomorrow...those folks up there don't understand our climate down here That wasn't the discussion. The coast was always supposed to briefly torch..though I have my doubts if SW CT does. SE Ct def will. You were saying upper 40's to lw 50's here which ain't happening. the trend the last 24hrs has been colder and SE AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Where do they do that, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah not sure what bong he's smoking..but the only mid 40's will be in far s coastal CT. those folkks down theredon't understand our climate up here we should know pretty early tomorrow how high your temp gets. you know your climo well. the low kind of dissolves into a boundary/frontal wave...which may temporarily be to your north. i could see you touching mid 40s (46F?) for a time and then coming back down really quick as that dumps south. hopefully it aligns itself south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Honestly that's outside of my focus range for this one, but I think the R/S line will be right on the MA/NH/VT border... or rain/sleet line as I could see some sleet working its way further north (north of the H85 freezing line on the models because the WAA is really closer to H7) into the first tier of counties in VT and NH. Someone could get a pretty good 32F sleeter in that area. If there was a surprise potential I think its in the Berkshires... particularly MPM country over to PSF. This may be a rare case where MPM gets more than the polar bears in West Chesterfield. Overall though, my gut is saying that significant snows (6"+) start in the first tier of counties in VT and NH and that 6"+ zone goes all the way up into extreme southern Canada. good point with the H7 low going so far NW.....w/o looking at soundings how much of a warm nose is there at 8H...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Where do they do that, Scott? map for your exact amounts fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Flood watch for portions of northern Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Including The Following areas, In Northern Connecticut, Hartford Ct, Tolland Ct And windham ct. In Massachusetts, Central Middlesex Ma, Eastern essex ma, Eastern Hampden Ma, Eastern Norfolk Ma, Eastern plymouth ma, Northern Bristol Ma, Southeast Middlesex Ma, southern worcester ma, Suffolk Ma, Western Essex Ma, western hampden ma, Western Norfolk Ma and western plymouth ma. In Rhode Island, Eastern Kent Ri, Northwest Providence ri, Southeast Providence Ri, Washington Ri And western kent ri. From Friday morning through Friday evening A mix or rain and wet snow will develop late this evening and continue overnight, Changing To All rain around daybreak. The rain will become heavy at times Friday morning and last through mid afternoon before tapering off by evening. One to two inches of precipitation with locally higher amounts can be expected across the area. The combination of increasing wind and temperatures rising well into the 40s to lower 50s will also add to increasing snowmelt during a brief 6 hour window midday Friday with another one half to one inch of liquid equivalent expected primarily along and south of the mass pike but also into northeastern Massachusetts. Urban and poor drainage flooding can be expected with heavy rainfall and near some snow and ice clogged storm drains. In addition the combination of heavy rainfall and melting snow will cause some smaller streams to rise near bankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BOX map locks up some heavy heavy gradient with an 2" for orh, 4" for Dom and 10" for Sam in Keene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Box outlines beginning of the ORH hills rather nicely. Probably because even though it's cold enough aloft for snow, the extra elevations means the difference between 34F and 31F. Snow would accumulate better in those areas, obviously. Yeah you are definitely going to want some elevation if you are right on the boundary zone between snow/mix/rain. I could see some of the lower elevations, in southern NH especially, seeing a 33-34F pounding snow that is slow to accumulate, while at 1,000ft and higher thats 31-32F and accumulating much more efficiently. Also, those walking the tightrope may also see a change to rain if precipitation lightens up, but snow during heavier periods. Luckily, this all looks to come in one big QPF blob so we shouldn't see too much varying of pcpn rates. This isn't like a long duration storm with light/moderate rates, but a short duration with heavy fall rates... that does help argue for dynamic cooling to wet snow in a lot of areas that might mix or rain if this was a lighter/moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL 3 people posted it at once. Man, its going to be close in Nashua-MHT corridor. From an 1" for Ray to 10" north of MHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 To light here on totals to be honest... you're not really in my 'viewing area' so I kind of overlooked Lewiston... most of my readers are from southern NH and eastern Mass, but you're definitely right. i'm going to adjust that. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 we should know pretty early tomorrow how high your temp gets. you know your climo well. the low kind of dissolves into a boundary/frontal wave...which may temporarily be to your north. i could see you touching mid 40s (46F?) for a time and then coming back down really quick as that dumps south. hopefully it aligns itself south of you. What I've seen countless times over the years is IJD being the ending point of the torch in cases like this. they'll spike to 48-50 and I'll hang in the upper 30's to 40ish and then quickly drop back down. I guess i won't be totally shocked if it gets a bit warmer than that..But that warm air generally has a tough time getting up and over the hills that start just north of IJD. It's a fine line..but 9 times out of 10 that is what happens..maybe tomorrow is that 1 time..but if i was betting I would say not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 to be honest... you're not really in my 'viewing area' so I kind of overlooked Lewiston... most of my readers are from southern NH and eastern Mass, but you're definitely right. i'm going to adjust that. thanks. No Prob, lol, I extropolated the line going NE into here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What I've seen countless times over the years is IJD being the ending point of the torch in cases like this. they'll spike to 48-50 and I'll hang in the upper 30's to 40ish and then quickly drop back down. I guess i won't be totally shocked if it gets a bit warmer than that..But that warm air generally has a tough time getting up and over the hills that start just north of IJD. It's a fine line..but 9 times out of 10 that is what happens..maybe tomorrow is that 1 time..but if i was betting I would say not yeah that's certainly reasonable. how close to you is that location? i know you've said a lot of times that your climate is a lot like IJD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 The GFS really has a nice area of lift in the backside comma head. It looks like it gets ctrl mass good at 00z. H7 low almost wants to close off, but nice fronto area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BOX map locks up some heavy heavy gradient with an 2" for orh, 4" for Dom and 10" for Sam in Keene. Not that it matters too much, but I think the far northern tier of CT may be able to squeeze out a quick 1-2" (mainly the hills) late tonight before the changeover. For whatever reason, I'm starting to feel bullish on a bit more snow in parts of interior SNE, especially as evaporational cooling helps this start as snow over the interior. There are some hints of sneaky .1-.2" of QPF over a lot of the area in a sub-freezing column above 950mb... I think evap cooling at the start could bring that accumulating snow level down into the hills of northern CT, before the real warm air works in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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