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Feb 25 Obs/disco


CoastalWx

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Sorta surprised at this one:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG

WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING HEAVY AT

TIMES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX

WITH SLEET WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE

CHANGING TO RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

why the suprise davey crockett

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With a little luck, I might actually get a net gain out of this...3" of paste on the front end, some brief 31-32F ice, then a 34F rain to mat down the 3" of paste and then a flip to snow at the end for a quick inch or two.

At the very least, it doesn't look too damaging.

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I just took a gander at FOUS and see there are some issues...may have been discussed.

ME is in great shape...even PWM may eeek out all snow and most will book 6-10.

NH/ALB. has potential sleet contamination during the first half of the event at CON extending to ALB.

BTV looks like 6+ but fluff vs cement. I was surprised to see the sleet signal at CON/ALB to be honest.

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With a little luck, I might actually get a net gain out of this...3" of paste on the front end, some brief 31-32F ice, then a 34F rain to mat down the 3" of paste and then a flip to snow at the end for a quick inch or two.

At the very least, it doesn't look too damaging.

Good luck Will, nice to see your fortunes change, plastering of paste!!:snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

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Good luck Will, nice to see your fortunes change, plastering of paste!!:snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

I'm not really expecting that much...the snow potential looks a bit more interesting on the front end, but it just might be a situation where I'm about 10-15 miles too far south for much better. In the end, its probably more of a tease than anything if the monadnocks get hammered and I'm stuck with wet snow changing to 33F rain.

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That mechanism is called the human brain. Unfortunately it's often biased with emotions so the leaning often goes against our strong rational deductive skills and leans towards the snowier model(s) :)

Yeah but it's impossible to split the difference mentally or even manually. I'd be really interested to see a true model mean for the two OP runs but it'll never happen.

Loon and shawnee are likely all sn

Sunapee I could see a period of pl and fzra

Wawa will be wet mostly imo

Thanks

Think of how HarveyLeonardFan and Messenger felt. 10-15 miles away getting crushed.

There isn't a storm this winter that I felt like we got robbed. HLF got hosed a bunch of times. I think I did remarkably well all things considered the last few events.

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If you don't, I don't wtf would've happened. Maybe 6" for you and 1" for Ray to close in on the snow totals? :devilsmiley:

I know Ive set it a lot, but I'm glad I'm going north tonight. Probably 1-2" of slush back home, while hubb dave gets like 5".

BTW... don't get depressed if you have WMUR (NH station) on tonight... although their wx team is very solid, a lot of times they tend to under-do amounts in cases like this!

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I'm not really expecting that much...the snow potential looks a bit more interesting on the front end, but it just might be a situation where I'm about 10-15 miles too far south for much better. In the end, its probably more of a tease than anything if the monadnocks get hammered and I'm stuck with wet snow changing to 33F rain.

It's a lot of rain, but even over an inch of rain on that snow pack should not be catastrophic at 34F. Then throw in a little snow possibly on either end..you'll come out ok I think. I wonder if it's something where HubbDave is a mix, but Sam is ripping for awhile back in Keene. Looks really close.

You'll truly be able to walk elephants across that snowpack of yours, by Saturday morning. With any luck, that next system is similar..or at least a good amount of ZR for you.

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I was going to suggest that you give yourselves plenty of time. It's school vacation week here in Mass, that means extra folks heading to VT for the weekend, driving through snow on winding mountain roads.

Where are you playing?

Wobbly Barn.

Of all the times I've played there, this is the first time I'm travelling with a storm.

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maybe you haven't read..but track is south and colder and we spend 95% of the storm in the 30's with an hour touching 40 maybe

Taunton disagrees:

Friday: Freezing rain before 8am, then rain. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. High near 47. Light wind becoming west between 12 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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Taunton disagrees:

Friday: Freezing rain before 8am, then rain. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. High near 47. Light wind becoming west between 12 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Kevin is most likely not going to reach 47 degrees.

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