40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Good all frozen here Never thought you had much to worry about.....this reminds me of alot of the Feb\March 2007 events, aside from the one 10" event in Feb 2007 that trended into one larger event, from a two-parter....that was colder. The storm track shifted N throughout the course of that season and many of the Feb-March events were like 1-4" for alot of sne, prior to the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Never thought you had much to worry about.....this reminds me of alot of the Feb\March 2007 events, aside from the one 10" event in Feb 2007 that trended into one larger event, from a two-parter....that was colder. The storm track shifted N throughout the course of that season and many of the Feb-March events were like 1-4" for alot of sne, prior to the flip. I think you are thinking of 2008, not 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18Z NAM looking a smidgen colder than 12Z for NW MA. We're running out of time, and we're running out of smidgens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 what a surprise when isnt it snowing there? Flakes flying here @ 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think you are thinking of 2008, not 2007. Yes...I pulled a Kevin. I was thinking 2007-08 season in my mind....that 's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I locked it because I can Obviously if I actually had anything riding on i like alot of you guys, then I would have been more cautious. Hope everyone remembers this the next time someone pulls the 'ole "how will we triple point without a high" card....the question should be why WON'T we triple point, or get squashed over the cp. There's no real triple point. It sort of jumps a bit over the PA mtns and slides over ern/se mass....almost becomes like a frontal wave. I'm not being picky..lol, but there's a little bit of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 looks like nam gives me in southern Nh snow then a change to rain for a short time then heavy blast of snowlate saturday afternoon and night? is that correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I locked it because I can Obviously if I actually had anything riding on i like alot of you guys, then I would have been more cautious. Hope everyone remembers this the next time someone pulls the 'ole "how will we triple point without a high" card....the question should be why WON'T we triple point, or get squashed over the cp. There's no real triple point. It sort of jumps a bit over the PA mtns and slides over ern/se mass....almost becomes like a frontal wave. I'm not being picky..lol, but there's a little bit of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ORH is nearly still isothermal snow at 15z on the NAM...certainly just N of here in the Princeton/Hunchback Dave are is...with nearly 0.50" of liquid equivalent fallen through that time. Definitely have to watch for those northern hills toward Monads to get a pretty nice little plastering before any flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Interesting in that Ray could pick up 2 inches of slop total priming him to exceed 1.5 Sunday. Dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think you are thinking of 2008, not 2007. What do you think for SNH will? Sneaky snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Interesting in that Ray could pick up 2 inches of slop total priming him to exceed 1.5 Sunday. Dinner. Yea, you may beat me. Made for a very interesting bet and both sides have a chance....that's the goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Interesting in that Ray could pick up 2 inches of slop total priming him to exceed 1.5 Sunday. Dinner. The euro ensembles might also work in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow at NAM.. trending colder each run.. Gonna be real interesting here Winter cancel fail for you perhaps. You have more snow, no golf until april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yes...I pulled a Kevin. I was thinking 2007-08 season in my mind....that 's why. Not a true snow lover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Interesting in that Ray could pick up 2 inches of slop total priming him to exceed 1.5 Sunday. Dinner. BED at 15z is actually a hair colder than ORH. It's still milder in the lower levels, but it's possible many areas start out as some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not a true snow lover I knew you would be all over me for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 notice my snow continues to decrease as snow in parts of MA continues to increase. this is not a surprise, and again illuminate why snowfall anomaies are consistent and stick out like sore thumbs at the end of any given year. IMO, always hedge a forecast towards seasonal trend, especially if the models are at odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Never thought you had much to worry about.....this reminds me of alot of the Feb\March 2007 events, aside from the one 10" event in Feb 2007 that trended into one larger event, from a two-parter....that was colder. The storm track shifted N throughout the course of that season and many of the Feb-March events were like 1-4" for alot of sne, prior to the flip. On the NAM, I may/may not get the 32* line here at 18z before it slides back to the SE. Don't know if that matters a rat's patute wrt to p-types due to what's going on aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Winter cancel fail for you perhaps. You have more snow, no golf until april Scott was trying to tell him that he looked great in this pattern, while he was laying out in front on the mower of the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks...I tried to put something together that would make it easier to zoom in different regions and make it easier to read subtle changes from run to run. Hard to do this with the e-wall or NCEP graphics. Excellent job, not only the NAM/GFS model but the other resources on your site really do a great job of pulling what I normally would have open in 3-5 tabs all into one page. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF LESS MIXING OCCURS. Statement from nws in grey maine concerning southern Nh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Never thought you had much to worry about.....this reminds me of alot of the Feb\March 2007 events, aside from the one 10" event in Feb 2007 that trended into one larger event, from a two-parter....that was colder. The storm track shifted N throughout the course of that season and many of the Feb-March events were like 1-4" for alot of sne, prior to the flip. Usually i don't have to, But i am on the fence with coastals not these types, Usually depending on how far NW the coastal front gets it could be a few miles south or just north of here, I am only about 25-30 miles inland so it can be tough at times, These SWFE are usually good at my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 On the NAM, I may/may not get the 32* line here at 18z before it slides back to the SE. Don't know if that matters a rat's patute wrt to p-types due to what's going on aloft. Net gain out there...easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Usually i don't have to, But i am on the fence with coastals not these types, Usually depending on how far NW the coastal front gets it could be a few miles south or just north of here, I am only about 25-30 miles inland so it can be tough at times, These SWFE are usually good at my location SWFEs are good for the cp because they can compete with the interior.....we don't get that "coastal stratification" configuration to the gradient because the man determinant of snowfall is latitude, rather than proximity to the ocean. This is how I beat Will the Thrill in 2008-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BED at 15z is actually a hair colder than ORH. It's still milder in the lower levels, but it's possible many areas start out as some snow. I will never cease to wonder how awesome it would be if we had a 1000' hill in my hood......every summer, I add to the loom pile in the corner of the yeard. I'd prob avg about 80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 All should be a good hit. No WaWa unless rain=good hit... Maybe 3" at the beginning and end but point is moot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Scott was trying to tell him that he looked great in this pattern, while he was laying out in front on the mower of the green. He may want to keep visions of nine irons dancing in his head, in check for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SWFEs are good for the cp because they can compete with the interior.....we don't get that "coastal stratification" configuration to the gradient because the man determinant of snowfall is latitude, rather than proximity to the ocean. This is how I beat Will the Thrill in 2008-09. 2007-2008 I lived on SWFE storms here, Thats how i get most of our snows plus clippers and Miller B's we do well, A's not so well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ORH is nearly still isothermal snow at 15z on the NAM...certainly just N of here in the Princeton/Hunchback Dave are is...with nearly 0.50" of liquid equivalent fallen through that time. Definitely have to watch for those northern hills toward Monads to get a pretty nice little plastering before any flip. Toss it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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