HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Good afternoon New Englanders! Popping in from the Philly region to ask a driving question, since I really haven't been following tomorrow'a big rainstorm down here. However, I (and my band) have to play in Killington tomorrow night, with a sound check at 3:30. What am I looking at here? A white knuckle drive. - lol. I-91 should be ok but RT 4 will be rough. I think they are looking at 6-10" that part of VT. I'd allow and extra 2 hours from Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Good thing I'll be on the N side of Merrimack close to MHT, might give me an an extra 1", to get me to 4". Oh, so you're in the exit 12 region. Yeah, that's a good 15 miles or so N of MBY. I'm a bit anxious for the 18z runs now, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Where is brian located? Those euro maps look pretty sweet for izg. Going to be funtimes tomorrow. We have a Meso map with all are locations if i can find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Oh, so you're in the exit 12 region. Yeah, that's a good 15 miles or so N of MBY. I'm a bit anxious for the 18z runs now, though. Yeah, I'll be in that area tonight. It's so damn close. Any colder and we could both get 8" of cement. I think I might just answer my texts about snowfall and be like, "I'll get back to you after the 18z runs", just to confuse them." lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm glad I"m not the only one who is thinking that. i think with respect to how this crosses SNE - which i suppose is all that really matters when it comes down to it for this discussion - yes, the gfs and ec have basically met at a midpoint of coming across SNE. but the ec has just flat out dominated with respect to the evolution of this on the large scale. it's not even close. the gfs had basically a flat flow across the conus on a bunch of runs and took the main SLP way east before going north. it had an entirely different (and wrong) evolution. had the models met at a compromise in synoptics - that is, had the ec given in to some of what the gfs was selling at 5h...a lot more of SNE would be in the ball game for some frozen precip. if they were truly compromising, the low could still cut across SE MA - but CT Blizz would be thinking about a net gain not whether to cover his yard with tarps. here's the last 5 days of runs centered on 12z Friday from the euro. it never waivered on the idea this was cutting west. AMOUT. disgustingly similar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Scott, is the dotted blue line 0C at 850? Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 On those ECWF maps what does each line correspond to? solid red solid yellow dotted blue dotted yellow 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yes it is. Thanks. So I do seem to rip for a few hours then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 On those ECWF maps what does each line correspond to? solid red solid yellow dotted blue dotted yellow Solid Red = 1000-850 critical thickness solid yellow - 850-700mb critical thickness. dotted blue is specifically 850 0C temp while dotted yellow are just 850mb temps every 5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 i think with respect to how this crosses SNE - which i suppose is all that really matters when it comes down to it for this discussion - yes, the gfs and ec have basically met at a midpoint of coming across SNE. but the ec has just flat out dominated with respect to the evolution of this on the large scale. it's not even close. the gfs had basically a flat flow across the conus on a bunch of runs and took the main SLP way east before going north. it had an entirely different (and wrong) evolution. had the models met at a compromise in synoptics - that is, had the ec given in to some of what the gfs was selling at 5h...a lot more of SNE would be in the ball game for some frozen precip. if they were truly compromising, the low could still cut across SE MA - but CT Blizz would be thinking about a net gain not whether to cover his yard with tarps. here's the last 5 days of runs centered on 12z Friday from the euro. it never waivered on the idea this was cutting west. AMOUT. disgustingly similar: Yeah I think as far as overall synoptic, it won the battle. It helped to know some of the euro bias, but that just meant a track from ern NY state across ern mass. That's not bad all things considered 5 days out. Remember when the GFS jackpotted you??? LOL> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks Suffice to say they are all clustered right over my head at the warmest point ...then retreat SE. The 850 line I think never quite reaches me. Solid Red = 1000-850 critical thickness solid yellow - 850-700mb critical thickness. dotted blue is specifically 850 0C temp while dotted yellow are just 850mb temps every 5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 LOL, it doesn't really matter. I actually hope it goes north and I warm sector to get decent winds. I have to head into work at 1 so I suppose it doesn't matter since I would miss any decent winds anyways. As much as the euro was better for our backyard, and made a huge trend east. Back on Sunday and Monday morning I was thinking a warmer scenario for a good chunk of sne. By Monday aftn and esp Tuesday when the GFS held steady and the euro ticked east...I thought maybe more of a climo thing snaking along sne. That's probably what will happen. I'm pretty sure it's north of messenger..and maybe even close to you, but perhaps it's down closer to GON and se mass. Been pretty obvious that it would go btwn Messenger and Boston, all along....classic se MA track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 i think with respect to how this crosses SNE - which i suppose is all that really matters when it comes down to it for this discussion - yes, the gfs and ec have basically met at a midpoint of coming across SNE. but the ec has just flat out dominated with respect to the evolution of this on the large scale. it's not even close. the gfs had basically a flat flow across the conus on a bunch of runs and took the main SLP way east before going north. it had an entirely different (and wrong) evolution. had the models met at a compromise in synoptics - that is, had the ec given in to some of what the gfs was selling at 5h...a lot more of SNE would be in the ball game for some frozen precip. if they were truly compromising, the low could still cut across SE MA - but CT Blizz would be thinking about a net gain not whether to cover his yard with tarps. here's the last 5 days of runs centered on 12z Friday from the euro. it never waivered on the idea this was cutting west. AMOUT. disgustingly similar: It ended up being about a 75/25 compromise for synoptics in favor of Euro...50/50 for the sfc low track. Yeah if they had met in the middle on synoptics, I'd probably be getting a Dec '96 blue snow bomb while the sfc low still tracks over SE MA. I think the actual Dec '96 sfc low tracked over Scott's fanny. But obviously the synoptic features in the mid-levels make a much bigger deal of rain vs snow than the sfc low track. Euro was way more correct with bringing the initial surge W. Its had a lot of problems this winter, but I think its fair to show in this case that it took the GFS to the woodshed overall regardless of whether Winchendon, MA gets 6" of paste or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yep the GFS is now the northwest outlier on track weirdly and deludes itself into thinking it may go over like the Litchfield Hills or Great Barrington. But I'd say the new 12Z Euro track will be it.... Been pretty obvious that it would go btwn Messenger and Boston, all along....classic se MA track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks. So I do seem to rip for a few hours then. Now there's a flood watch up to the NH/MA border except for N. ORH county. WWA for you and one town south has a flood watch. Maybe BOX will actually put a flood watch and a WWA at the same time in N. mass/ S. NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It ended up being about a 75/25 compromise for synoptics in favor of Euro...50/50 for the sfc low track. Yeah if they had met in the middle on synoptics, I'd probably be getting a Dec '96 blue snow bomb while the sfc low still tracks over SE MA. I think the actual Dec '96 sfc low tracked over Scott's fanny. But obviously the synoptic features in the mid-levels make a much bigger deal of rain vs snow than the sfc low track. Euro was way more correct with bringing the initial surge W. Its had a lot of problems this winter, but I think its fair to show in this case that it took the GFS to the woodshed overall regardless of whether Winchendon, MA gets 6" of paste or not. Overall 70\30 in favor of EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah I think as far as overall synoptic, it won the battle. It helped to know some of the euro bias, but that just meant a track from ern NY state across ern mass. That's not bad all things considered 5 days out. Remember when the GFS jackpotted you??? LOL> yeah. LOL. that was mon or tue 12z...the run where the it whiffed most of C and NNE and actually took the low out south of the BM. all in all it doesn't matter and i guess it just goes to show that the pattern kinda sucks for most of the SNE folks right now if i actually took the time to go find those images and save them. but got to stick up for the euro on this one. it locked on early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks Suffice to say they are all clustered right over my head at the warmest point ...then retreat SE. The 850 line I think never quite reaches me. Congrats, Rick. The 850 comes to me at about 18z. Don't know how mcuh of what comes down before then is snow/frozen, but looks pretty good for you (as it has for quite a while). 32.3/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yep the GFS is now the northwest outlier on track weirdly and deludes itself into thinking it may go over like the Litchfield Hills or Great Barrington. But I'd say the new 12Z Euro track will be it.... Absolutely....GFS was garbage when it showed a SECS and it's garbage now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I guess we all assumed the GFS was probably full of it..... We didn't know if the Euro would come south a bit. yeah. LOL. that was mon or tue 12z...the run where the it whiffed most of C and NNE and actually took the low out south of the BM. all in all it doesn't matter and i guess it just goes to show that the pattern kinda sucks for most of the SNE folks right now if i actually took the time to go find those images and save them. but got to stick up for the euro on this one. it locked on early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It ended up being about a 75/25 compromise for synoptics in favor of Euro...50/50 for the sfc low track. Yeah if they had met in the middle on synoptics, I'd probably be getting a Dec '96 blue snow bomb while the sfc low still tracks over SE MA. I think the actual Dec '96 sfc low tracked over Scott's fanny. But obviously the synoptic features in the mid-levels make a much bigger deal of rain vs snow than the sfc low track. Euro was way more correct with bringing the initial surge W. Its had a lot of problems this winter, but I think its fair to show in this case that it took the GFS to the woodshed overall regardless of whether Winchendon, MA gets 6" of paste or not. do you have clients there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow--no colors for me. I'm feeling left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So far ALB hasn't had watches up here (next county up) ...but these 12Z runs went a little south so the new forecast should be interesting. Congrats, Rick. The 850 comes to me at about 18z. Don't know how mcuh of what comes down before then is snow/frozen, but looks pretty good for you (as it has for quite a while). 32.3/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I guess we all assumed the GFS was probably full of it..... We didn't know if the Euro would come south a bit. It had to...this system isn't potent enough to cut over the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Been pretty obvious that I would love to go btwn Messenger and Phil, all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Been pretty obvious that it would go btwn Messenger and Boston, all along....classic se MA track. I don't think that was a lock on Sunday. I mean any track isn't a lock 5 days out, but like the GFS...the euro was an outlier too. Sometimes when they have that warm front kink in the isobars over sne, that's an indication of either a triple point or something that may slide over the typical climo areas of sne.It depends on a variety of things, but something to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't think that was a lock on Sunday. I mean any track isn't a lock 5 days out, but like the GFS...the euro was an outlier too. Sometimes when they have that warm front kink in the isobars over sne, that's an indication of either a triple point or something that may slide over the typical climo areas of sne.It depends on a variety of things, but something to note. I locked it because I can Obviously if I actually had anything riding on i like alot of you guys, then I would have been more cautious. Hope everyone remembers this the next time someone pulls the 'ole "how will we triple point without a high" card....the question should be why WON'T we triple point, or get squashed over the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 might have to watch for some damaging wind gusts tomorrow evening/night throughout a larger chunk of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We got an eta of precipitation arrival into concord area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I locked it because I can Obviously if I actually had anything riding on i like alot of you guys, then I would have been more cautious. good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.