A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 nice to hear about the 21z srefs, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd be surprised if there is much of an area of icing due to a lot of the negative factors, but you're right about the nighttime effects. I'll be pulling a Mottster and rooting against any ice for us though. 34º and rain sounds about right. Yeah, I have a feeling I'm going to wake up tomorrow to see the forecast for Chicago to be another 12-18". That would be fitting with the way this winter has gone. I would say there is a next one, but that time is just about up for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SREFs look to target SSC's backyard with max probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SREFs look to target SSC's backyard with max probabilities Quit talking dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM coming in a bit SE and a touch weaker than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SpartyOn is ready for the 00z Models. Got a cold beer ( Bells Third Coast ) Half pack of smokes (LM blues ) Some thin mint girl scout cookies And some Miles Davis-(Kind of Blue) on the stereo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM wont be as good for northerners i dont think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM coming in a bit SE and a touch weaker than the previous run. Glad to see the cold coming south at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM wont be as good for northerners Comes back to reality... A mis for ORD...congrats PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 looks slightly stronger at 850 compared to 18z and slightly stronger with the slp in central ok, temps colder to the north. all changes minor, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Eyes might be playing tricks with me, but through 24 the NAM looks like it's going to come south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SpartyOn is ready for the 00z Models. Got a cold beer ( Bells Third Coast ) Half pack of smokes (LM blues ) Some thin mint girl scout cookies And some Miles Davis-(Kind of Blue) on the stereo I Smoke American spirits My 6 year old next to me NHL on the fly on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 h5 defintely looks weaker and less impressive not as amped as baro said 18z was practically perfection for a low amplitude + tilt wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol @ the anticlimactic NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hmmm, the 850mb low actually is further west at 24hr than the 18z run but then moves due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Notice how the sfc low at 30 is perfectly superimposed over that convection bullseye in KY? Feedback issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 for us folks that have been in "it" i am happy for the 00z, it means game is still possibly on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Notice how the sfc low at 30 is perfectly superimposed over that convection bullseye in KY? Feedback issue? Not fully sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 northern MO gets absolutely hammered this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Notice how the sfc low at 30 is perfectly superimposed over that convection bullseye in KY? Feedback issue? noticed , didn't want to say it/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Notice how the sfc low at 30 is perfectly superimposed over that convection bullseye in KY? Feedback issue? I don't see anything that suggests model crippling convective feedback--having convection firing near the triple pt/surface low isn't unusual--nor is it unusual for convection to drive strong surface pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not fully sampled yet. lol, yeah the weenie's last resort. But it does seem kind of odd considering the trends of the other models at 18z for the NAM to go the other direction. Especially seeing as we're just 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 00Z looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Notice how the sfc low at 30 is perfectly superimposed over that convection bullseye in KY? Feedback issue? That's what I'm thinking... it's developing spurious blobs of convection that are adversely affecting the model's depiction of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Notice how the sfc low at 30 is perfectly superimposed over that convection bullseye in KY? Feedback issue? Agree does not make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 00z NAM adjusted back SE from the 18z run, but it's still NW of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That's what I'm thinking... it's developing spurious blobs of convection that are adversely affecting the model's depiction of the storm. Agree does not make sense Honestly everything looks realistic here. I see no signs of negative "convective feedback". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't see anything that suggests model crippling convective feedback--having convection firing near the triple pt/surface low isn't unusual--nor is it unusual for convection to drive strong surface pressure falls. Ok, let's see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't see anything that suggests model crippling convective feedback--having convection firing near the triple pt/surface low isn't unusual--nor is it unusual for convection to drive strong surface pressure falls. Not crippling, but there definitely are some strong convective influences going on there. Probably overdoing it a bit. Same thing happened on the blizzard a few weeks ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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