cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. Congrats! I didn't know you were leaving either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I see that the SREF probs (for at least 4") took a nice jump up from prior runs at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 21z RUC has the sfc low over BVO at 24hr. That's pretty far north. I bet 0z runs jump even more to the north. This has the feel of classic NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I see that the SREF probs (for at least 4") took a nice jump up from prior runs at 15z. I should say for the Michiana area (have I already forgotten how big a region this is? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That's pretty far north. I bet 0z runs jump even more to the north. This has the feel of classic NW trend. I have no idea where BVO is, but the RUC is often a little too amped at that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Your good people BowMe...thanks for the well wishes. Though I'm afraid the good Doctor was right all along, gonna be ugly for us here, but we'll hope for the best. Getting near that time of the yr where avg temps are nearing with some spots already over 40 degrees probably where events will be a real thread the needle and might have to deal with some taint to start. I'd love to be looking at a rain to hopefuly snow bomb pasting everything. Should be a real picturesqueness scene come friday morning - GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I have no idea where BVO is, but the RUC is often a little too amped at that timeframe. i had to google myself, north central ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I have no idea where BVO is, but the RUC is often a little too amped at that timeframe. It is Bartlesville, Oklahoma in the northeast part of the state. I just looked it up myself. Extrapolating, if it moved ENE, it might even move through Central Illinois and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol, I was looking at the cool wx graphics for the 18z NAM and it has a decent band of ice which somehow skips over LAF. There's a blotch around DNV and then a band from about OKK northeastward into northwest OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I have no idea where BVO is, but the RUC is often a little too amped at that timeframe. I had to google that one and had the same thoughts to joe about the ruc, but then he brought up how it banged out the blizzard well to shut me up lol. I think only a stormchaser would know where Bartelsville is. anyways - looks roughly where the Euro has the low in Oklahoma, maybe a pinch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol, I was looking at the cool wx graphics for the 18z NAM and it has a decent band of ice which somehow skips over LAF. There's a blotch around DNV and then a band from about OKK northeastward into northwest OH. In fact the 18z NAM verbatim had a very narrow band of heavy snow. The heaviest swath is maybe 25 miles wide (top row of counties in Indiana and bottom row of counties in SE Michigan) with amounts sharply decreasing north and south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. Congrats man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 In fact the 18z NAM verbatim had a very narrow band of heavy snow. The heaviest swath is maybe 25 miles wide (top row of counties in Indiana and bottom row of counties in SE Michigan) with amounts sharply decreasing north and south of there. Then how come it still gave MKE 0.4 QPF? Based on that, it would put a decent snowfall even 120 miles away from the heavy snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol, I was looking at the cool wx graphics for the 18z NAM and it has a decent band of ice which somehow skips over LAF. There's a blotch around DNV and then a band from about OKK northeastward into northwest OH. That would be awesome to see. I guess at that point I'd have to start believing in the LAF warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The 18z NAM looks similar to what it was showing a few days ago, before the southeast trend. The 00z runs should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Then how come it still gave MKE 0.4 QPF? Based on that, it would put a decent snowfall even 120 miles away from the heavy snow band. Meh, it's not THAT sharp, but the (low-end) warning criteria snows don't get any further north than PTN-ORD and the advisory criteria amounts taper off to nothing north of MKE-MBS. The cut off is much sharper south of that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Then how come it still gave MKE 0.4 QPF? Based on that, it would put a decent snowfall even 120 miles away from the heavy snow band. Yeah but he said the heaviest swath is very narrow...which is true. It shows a narrow band of 12-14" around DTW and even 16" in NE IN...so yeah, 4-6" in MKE, while a decent snowfall, is a sharp decrease. All this is anyway is talking the 18z nam verbatum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That would be awesome to see. I guess at that point I'd have to start believing in the LAF warm bias. It's almost like that map factored it in. Still not sure about the ice potential. Not a great feed of low level cold air and temps in the ice area may be rather marginal (and precip rates might become heavy enough to prevent really efficient accretion). A favorable factor is that it's after dark so there won't be a solar influence. All things considered, could envision a narrow band that flirts with or meets warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah but he said the heaviest swath is very narrow...which is true. It shows a narrow band of 12-14" around DTW and even 16" in NE IN...so yeah, 4-6" in MKE, while a decent snowfall, is a sharp decrease. All this is anyway is talking the 18z nam verbatum lol Wow that seems a tad high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah but he said the heaviest swath is very narrow...which is true. It shows a narrow band of 12-14" around DTW and even 16" in NE IN...so yeah, 4-6" in MKE, while a decent snowfall, is a sharp decrease. All this is anyway is talking the 18z nam verbatum lol The lol is definitely right, b/c that run of snow seems much more bullish than any of the models have had to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow that seems a tad high. Just going by this map from earlier in the thread http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=IWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I noticed IWx updated zone forecasts about an hour ago and indicate a band of 6-10" tomorrow night and light to mod accum Friday morning for the 2 northern tier counties in Indiana and its S MI counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's almost like that map factored it in. Still not sure about the ice potential. Not a great feed of low level cold air and temps in the ice area may be rather marginal (and precip rates might become heavy enough to prevent really efficient accretion). A favorable factor is that it's after dark so there won't be a solar influence. All things considered, could envision a narrow band that flirts with or meets warning criteria. I'd be surprised if there is much of an area of icing due to a lot of the negative factors, but you're right about the nighttime effects. I'll be pulling a Mottster and rooting against any ice for us though. 34º and rain sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I noticed IWx updated zone forecasts about an hour ago and indicate a band of 6-10" tomorrow night and light to mod accum Friday morning for the 2 northern tier counties in Indiana and its S MI counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ouch, 18z NAM gives Ft Wayne about .75" as freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. Many of us have always appreciated your input and I hope you use this site to satisfy your professional interest in svr wx. I'm going to have to keep looking at your signature to remind myself you are not west of me in the Quad Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 23z RUC at hr 21 has the low in N/NE OK it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What are the ratios for SEMI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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