Harry Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah no complaints here on the season. A top 10'er is just fine. Alas, you are correct...a 6"+ all snow storm would be nice to top off this season here. I guess we have as good of a chance as any with this current system. Thanks for the well wishes. Fingers crossed... Cromartie, who knows? He may be here under a new username for all we know. It sure as heck makes me feel alot better about my winter call. Sucks to miss another storm but oh well cant change that. Still have a glaring hole here and there with the seasonal snowfall call though such as imby and parts of Ohio/Toronto but i have not really looked at their totals to date either so maybe it is better then what i am thinking. Still a good month left to make up some of the differences though. Maybe you guys can make a run at 65+? My hunch is the staff is looking very closely at IP's to make sure he does not try to sneak back in. I still don't know what happened as i missed whatever it was that happened to cause his ban but whatever. Really doesn't concern me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 2-4" wdiv for Detroit 2-3" wjbk 1-4" wxyz 1" or less n of 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 ILX has downgraded their northern counties that were under a WSW to a WWA. As well they added some of their southern counties that are now under a WWA. The rare south trender. Yea I am wondering if it's the lack of intensity with this low, the convection not allowing it to wrap up, or the northern energy suppressing it a bit, or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It sure as heck makes me feel alot better about my winter call. Still have a glaring hole here and there though such as imby and parts of Ohio/Toronto but i have not really looked at their totals to date either so maybe it is better then what i am thinking. Still a good month left to make up some of the differences though. Maybe you guys can make a run at 65+? My hunch is the staff is looking very closely at IP's to make sure he does not try to sneak back in. I still don't know what happened as i missed whatever it was that happened to cause his ban but whatever. Really doesn't concern me anyways. Yeah your call for down here will be gold. I on the other hand predicted much less for LAF. Of course some accuse me of pessimism from time to time. Originally Cromartie scammed the mods into thinking he was a Met...providing a fake diploma or something of that ilk to pull off the ruse. Needless to say, he was caught red handed...no pun intended. I think he's come back under a few aliases since then, but as usual he blows his cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 All eyes on the Saturday WAA snows. Looks like some east wind enhancement potential. The only thing that hasn't screwed me this winter. The east wind enhancement saved this winter here so far,. I think it is done now though Another wait and see. Maybe we do better than 2 inches with this synoptic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 getting closer to full saturation looking at area VAD's and radar, not that it matters now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yea I am wondering if it's the lack of intensity with this low, the convection not allowing it to wrap up, or the northern energy suppressing it a bit, or a mix. Their updated AFD basically said the dry air eating away at the initial batch plus the low taking a farther south track than anticipated led them to make those changes. Instead of Peoria and Bloomington being the bullseye, Springfield has become the hot spot in central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0134.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Indy now PLSN METAR KIND 250354Z 06015KT 3SM PLSN BR OVC012 01/M01 A2967 RMK AO2 RAE28PLB13SNB28 PRESFR SLP051 P0011 T00061006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The east wind enhancement saved this winter here so far,. I think it is done now though Another wait and see. Maybe we do better than 2 inches with this synoptic stuff. Even some good NW flow off Georgian Bay back in December. Haven't crunched the numbers, but something like 30% of my seasonal snowfall is LES. Incredible. Scary to think where we'd be this winter without them Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0134.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH...EXTREME SERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250341Z - 250945Z SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH...AND EXTREME SERN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND/OH. INTENSE 850-700-MB FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SHIFTS E-NEWD. THIS WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AS RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYERS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB /WITH TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND/OH AFTER 04Z...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION...WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT LEADING THE CYCLONE ARE PRESENT. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM INDICATES AMPLE SLANTWISE INSTABILITY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE 00Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATES THE SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS IL/IND AFTER 10Z WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS NRN OH INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ..COHEN.. 02/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah your call for down here will be gold. I on the other hand predicted much less for LAF. Of course some accuse me of pessimism from time to time. Originally Cromartie scammed the mods into thinking he was a Met...providing a fake diploma or something of that ilk to pull off the ruse. Needless to say, he was caught red handed...no pun intended. I think he's come back under a few aliases since then, but as usual he blows his cover. Oh my.. I'll never figure out some people. Takes alot of ball's to do that. Not even sure i would wanna come back after that but ala troll's usually don't care and thus not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 getting closer to full saturation looking at area VAD's and radar, not that it matters now lol Rapidly saturating per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH...EXTREME SERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250341Z - 250945Z SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH...AND EXTREME SERN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND/OH. INTENSE 850-700-MB FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SHIFTS E-NEWD. THIS WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AS RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYERS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB /WITH TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND/OH AFTER 04Z...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION...WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT LEADING THE CYCLONE ARE PRESENT. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM INDICATES AMPLE SLANTWISE INSTABILITY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE 00Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATES THE SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS IL/IND AFTER 10Z WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS NRN OH INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ..COHEN.. 02/25/2011 Seems a bit too far north with that beautiful red L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 With the fast movement and lack of a real impressive deformation band, there is a high bust potential in northern ohio westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 flakes reaching the ground here, not many but there comin on down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Finally snowing here. Only 6hrs late lol. Ground quickly whitening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Well I think we avoided the rain start here, spitting flakes right now. Main show for us though entering western IL at the moment. We're hoping for the best here in central Indiana. Not sure if I buy the 00z NAM's beefy total for us. Trends don't appear to support it in that regard and IWX commented on it as well. Perhaps something like 4-6" will end up being a better range for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Heavy snow falling now. We've gone from literally not a flake to be seen to heavy snow in less than a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not a flake here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not a flake here... That should change fairly soon as saturation continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Pretty good snow coming down here. About an inch or so on the ground and still coming down pretty good. Really gusty winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I'm thinking 4-6" for Lafayette. My 2 cents are now laying on the ground. Pick them up if you want them. With that said, I'm sick of trudging around campus in snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 some significant p-falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 some significant p-falls 999mb SLP along the KY/IN border, just SE of EVV. It has moved NE since it's earlier position along the AR/TN border, just north of Memphis. Edit: Make that 997mb near Evansville/Owensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 999mb SLP along the KY/IN border, just SE of EVV. It has moved NE since it's earlier position along the AR/TN border just north of Memphis. 04Z RUC initialized slightly SE of current position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 04Z RUC initialized slightly SE of current position 5z also too far east. Interesting little development. Don't know if it'll be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 999mb SLP along the KY/IN border, just SE of EVV. It has moved NE since it's earlier position along the AR/TN border, just north of Memphis. Edit: Make that 997mb near Evansville/Owensboro. What website do you use for sfc analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Picked up just under an inch here over the last hour. Nice dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LOL. TWC showed snow with 0.3 mile visibility here... I look outside and there's a few flurries. What are they describing the weather for -- 5,000 feet above the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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