Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 JB and Torchartie in the same winter oh well I still have you and Aking for my meteorological chuckles.. btw....now that I've been compared to Respiratory guy I'm thinking of changing my avatar and scheduling dinner with Tom Skilling and afraid the NW trend is in full effect on this one....looks like a quick hitter either way Any other reasons why this is going to suck, maybe a mysterious warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any other reasons why this is going to suck, maybe a mysterious warm layer? tornadoes in AR sucking in the actual snow itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If it keeps ticking NW then that could be more of a possibility. Stevo is right too..Its just to darn fast. The track as is now is classic for heavy snow SE of a MTC-ADG line. Any further NW would dry slot said area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 20z RUC sniffing the nw trend? fwiw...sfc low looks to be on the OK/KS border at 18z tomorrow where the 18z NAM has it in central OK.. i'll def be following tonights 0z runs that's for sure. I'm liking our position more and more, a good shot at some snow and an outside but increasing shot at lots of snow with little chance of plain rain...knock on wood. EDIT: you all are taking Baum way too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thanks guys. Well wishes are always appreciated. And Joe, you make this happen and I'll waive that blizzard fee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Fantastic winter for the southwestern part of the province/SEMI...at this rate, Windsor/Detroit may equal our average total, and we are on track to equal their average total...go figure! I wonder...could this end up shifting enough NW that we can cash in on it a bit? Like at the start of the month? you'll get something out of this quite likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 21z RUC has the sfc low over BVO at 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 tornadoes in AR sucking in the actual snow itself. You win. I can't top that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 tornadoes in AR sucking in the actual snow itself. Yes. But it would not be the actual tornadoes rather the convection robbing the moisture transport northward depriving the cold conveyor of it's ability to kick back snow into the deformation zone. As for Stebo his problem maybe the Cold Dry high pumping dry air into the storm on the north and east quadrant of the system. As for the warm temps at night not sure where that is coming from...but Thundersnow I am sure you are aware that strong WAA can cancel out the usual diurnal swings in temps. In fact I suspect that is Hoosiers concern if the system comes too far north. btw..actually did have several phone conversations with Mr. Skilling back in the '80's before cable,computers, and forums. He is as helpful as he seems. And no I did not have cocktails with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think it is funny now that the guidance has trended stronger and farther N there are no "wait till it is sampled by the upper air network" comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes. But it would not be the actual tornadoes rather the convection robbing the moisture transport northward depriving the cold conveyor of it's ability to kick back snow into the deformation zone. As for Stebo his problem maybe the Cold Dry high pumping dry air into the storm on the north and east quadrant of the system. As for the warm temps at night not sure where that is coming from...but Thundersnow I am sure you are aware that strong WAA can cancel out the usual diurnal swings in temps. In fact I suspect that is Hoosiers concern if the system comes too far north. Yes it can, but not with this setup. We never get into the WAA zone as our 850mb winds stay easterly-northeasterly. It's a different situation for the LAF crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think it is funny now that the guidance has trended stronger and farther N there are no "wait till it is sampled by the upper air network" comments. maybe it comes in even farther north with better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 maybe it comes in even farther north with better sampling For good ole synoptic scale motions the models and satellite retrieval do a fine job overall and many of the times the lack of variability with time is largely due to smaller forecast times. Sampling doesn't hurt of course and can help with details--but decreased forecast and continued satellite data retrieval as the system progresses with time is a big reason too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think it is funny now that the guidance has trended stronger and farther N there are no "wait till it is sampled by the upper air network" comments. It was just a matter of time until they came inline with the euro more. Euro has been a good hit for days now in the watch corridor. It just takes the slow POS GFS time to catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think it is funny now that the guidance has trended stronger and farther N there are no "wait till it is sampled by the upper air network" comments. Now that I'm on the East Coast I can only use that excuse until about 3 days out from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Now that I'm on the East Coast I can only use that excuse until about 3 days out from the event. Now you can blame Canada more How was the move btw? Hope all is well in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think it is funny now that the guidance has trended stronger and farther N there are no "wait till it is sampled" by the upper air network comments. Don't place everyone in the same basket... While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible.That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled. If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy. Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit. Sampling for this system won't be complete until tommorow right? Yes, for the 12z run as long as it doesn't slow down anymore.That's why I'm not geting excited about this run (despite its perfection) because I know this storm isn't done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Don't place everyone in the same basket... It was partially a joke since the talk has calmed down quite a bit. When things were headed S the alarms were going off in some peoples heads and the typical "wait till it is sampled" talk became boisterous. Naturally if the storm trends a particular way in favor of most folks the talk decreases Just an observation I am not lumping everyone together--it was mostly a friendly joke. As for this system--details need to be worked out with a lot of things--but I don't see this taking a jog well S again and suppressed like the weak solutions a couple days ago. We can clearly see in initial fields that the wave out in the Pacific is stronger and more intact than previously forecasted--no RAOB sampling is needed to make that observation at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Now you can blame Canada more How was the move btw? Hope all is well in Maine. Bittersweet (especially with this moderate risk for tomorrow as a reminder of what I'm leaving behind). But I look forward to new challenges like pytpe I'm actually just getting on regular shifts now, which explains my sudden reappearance on the boards after a couple week layoff. A lot going to my west, between the snow and the severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 OT...chasing season can't get here soon enough..this little guy just southeast of Muscatine, IA with this VAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Now that I'm on the East Coast I can only use that excuse until about 3 days out from the event. when did this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It was just a matter of time until they came inline with the euro more. Euro has been a good hit for days now in the watch corridor. It just takes the slow POS GFS time to catchup. I agree, but apparently I can't count the GFS' cold/suppression bias against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lol, 18z NAM actually showed a period of freezing rain (0.10") for DTW... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MI&stn=KDTW&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 when did this happen? Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. i'm glad to here it was a promotion related move, hope you enjoy your new surroundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. I'm sure I can speak for everyone when I say please do keep posting in this forum. We certainly appreciate your analysis and expertise. Oh and have fun in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It was partially a joke since the talk has calmed down quite a bit. When things were headed S the alarms were going off in some peoples heads and the typical "wait till it is sampled" talk became boisterous. Naturally if the storm trends a particular way in favor of most folks the talk decreases Just an observation I am not lumping everyone together--it was mostly a friendly joke. As for this system--details need to be worked out with a lot of things--but I don't see this taking a jog well S again and suppressed like the weak solutions a couple days ago. We can clearly see in initial fields that the wave out in the Pacific is stronger and more intact than previously forecasted--no RAOB sampling is needed to make that observation at least. But even then, the optimistic "wait til its sampled" posts were still not enough to drown out the pessimistic "its over" throw in the towel posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Poor guy is going to be lost man without his sidekick, JB. Just not enough time as i thought to make this anything worthwhile up here.. Another 48 hrs or so of tracking time and it would be just like the blizzard tick, tick ticking north nw and even $man ended up in the game. GFS pwned again but whats new.. Going to be a sick narrow strip of rippage where its just cold enough and I hope that's LAF up to toronto. Your good people BowMe...thanks for the well wishes. Though I'm afraid the good Doctor was right all along, gonna be ugly for us here, but we'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm sure I can speak for everyone when I say please do keep posting in this forum. We certainly appreciate your analysis and expertise. Oh and have fun in Maine. This and congrats on the move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lol, 18z NAM actually showed a period of freezing rain (0.10") for DTW... http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec It has around 5 inches this far north and west, so I guess it is somewhat believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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