LizardMafia Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 IND updated and expanded the WWA's south to now include Indy and the I-70 corridor in central Indiana. 0z NAM raw data has 0.68" falling in LAF in six hours (6z to 12z). Total storm QPF of 0.80". Figured it was just a matter of time before they extended it further south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> You have any numbers for Indy? TIA 0z NAM raw QPF: 0.96". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Univ. of Utah has GFS maps for pretty much the world, lol. I love them too--just a basic DT/surface theta-e combo--but they do the job. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NH&d=DT SPC has the potential vorticity maps for the mesoanalysis too. This guy has DT maps on theta surfaces--but the graphics are kinda corny. Still works though. http://www.atmos.alb...els/gfs_dt.html Cool, thanks. This storm suddenly got interesting for interior SNE. Your theory on convection and flat waves are interesting. Convection definitely plays a havoc when you have these positively tilted waves with rather "weak" forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Figured it was just a matter of time before they extended it further south.. See what you get for rooting against snow? On second thought, we may have a plan of attack for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 what ive learned from being a weenie is that IF the euro OR GFS are vastly different from the other models, you better take them seriously. they are both excellent models. they are the only 2 models you need to look at actually, until an event gets within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Cool, thanks. This storm suddenly got interesting for interior SNE. Your theory on convection and flat waves are interesting. Convection definitely plays a havoc when you have these positively tilted waves with rather "weak" forcing. It has been an interesting storm to follow--no doubt about that. Another good "NOWcast" event. Good luck out east--I can see a flatter track helping out there, no doubt. Also--the main SUNY site has NAM 4-panel DT maps--for whatever they are worth. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/index.php?d=wx_nwp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning? Because warning criteria is 4 inches in 5 hours.....5 inches in 8 hours....6 inches in 12 hours....8 inches in 24 hours....3 to 6 inches with a mix in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning? Could be wrong but I think a year ago or so DTX lowered their threshold amounts for both ws warning and ww advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning? DTX says its a "low end" warning. You need to remember that this will be hitting at the peak of the morning rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Because warning criteria is 4 inches in 5 hours.....5 inches in 8 hours....6 inches in 12 hours....8 inches in 24 hours....3 to 6 inches with a mix in 12 hours. ok, thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Because warning criteria is 4 inches in 5 hours.....5 inches in 8 hours....6 inches in 12 hours....8 inches in 24 hours....3 to 6 inches with a mix in 12 hours. how many different criteria are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 2z sfc analysis had the low now in SW KY, so it's finally made its left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 how many different criteria are there The push for "impact based" warnings will help a lot as there won't be such strict criteria in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Looking at 1+ inch hour rates for a short time in the morning..For DTW/-PTK Any ideas about possible convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Because warning criteria is 4 inches in 5 hours.....5 inches in 8 hours....6 inches in 12 hours....8 inches in 24 hours....3 to 6 inches with a mix in 12 hours. No... there's only a 12- and 24-hour criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Could be wrong but I think a year ago or so DTX lowered their threshold amounts for both ws warning and ww advisories. Yes, before I believe it was 4" in 6 hours, 6" in 8 hours and 8" in 12 (or 24?) hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 No... there's only a 12- and 24-hour criteria. No theres not....the criteria he posted is correct for the DTX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 No... there's only a 12- and 24-hour criteria. He works at DTX. I think he'd know you 'tard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Looking at 1+ inch hour rates for a short time in the morning..For DTW/-PTK Any ideas about possible convection? I think this storm is a flat out Miss... just my opion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 2z sfc analysis had the low now in SW KY, so it's finally made its left turn. You believe the 00z RUC SSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The 00z NAM is just brutal for northern Illinois. Definitely makes sense looking at what's going on though. Pretty crappy performance by some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Winter Storm A snow accumulation of at least 5 inches in 6 hours, in combination with one of the following: rain, freezing rain, sleet, wind, blowing snow or cold (wind chill). Per DTX web page http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/wwa_definitions/wsw.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 You believe the 00z RUC SSC? It's not like the 0z-1z RUC are amazing or anything. They just maintain continuity while the NAM went a fair bit further SE. I don't think we get just a dusting, which is what the 0z NAM would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 LOT downgrades all WSW's to WWA's. WWA dropped for Lee, DeKalb, Kane, DuPage and Cook Co's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 This storm is doing a pretty good job at producing a deck of mid-level clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 they should bring back the heavy snow warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 The 00z NAM is just brutal for northern Illinois. Definitely makes sense looking at what's going on though. Pretty crappy performance by some of the models. Well, there is a nice band moving through your area... ...aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It's not like the 0z-1z RUC are amazing or anything. They just maintain continuity while the NAM went a fair bit further SE. I don't think we get just a dusting, which is what the 0z NAM would suggest. I know but the NAM doesn't seem right to me. Any word on the 21z SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I know but the NAM doesn't seem right to me. Any word on the 21z SREFS? They went south, but not as far south as the 0z NAM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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