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Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:34 AM, Chicago WX said:

IND updated and expanded the WWA's south to now include Indy and the I-70 corridor in central Indiana.

0z NAM raw data has 0.68" falling in LAF in six hours (6z to 12z). Total storm QPF of 0.80".

Figured it was just a matter of time before they extended it further south..

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:35 AM, baroclinic_instability said:

Univ. of Utah has GFS maps for pretty much the world, lol. I love them too--just a basic DT/surface theta-e combo--but they do the job.

http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NH&d=DT

SPC has the potential vorticity maps for the mesoanalysis too.

This guy has DT maps on theta surfaces--but the graphics are kinda corny. Still works though.

http://www.atmos.alb...els/gfs_dt.html

Cool, thanks.

This storm suddenly got interesting for interior SNE. Your theory on convection and flat waves are interesting. Convection definitely plays a havoc when you have these positively tilted waves with rather "weak" forcing.

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:42 AM, CoastalWx said:

Cool, thanks.

This storm suddenly got interesting for interior SNE. Your theory on convection and flat waves are interesting. Convection definitely plays a havoc when you have these positively tilted waves with rather "weak" forcing.

It has been an interesting storm to follow--no doubt about that. Another good "NOWcast" event. Good luck out east--I can see a flatter track helping out there, no doubt.

Also--the main SUNY site has NAM 4-panel DT maps--for whatever they are worth.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/index.php?d=wx_nwp

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:45 AM, OHSnow said:

Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning?

Because warning criteria is 4 inches in 5 hours.....5 inches in 8 hours....6 inches in 12 hours....8 inches in 24 hours....3 to 6 inches with a mix in 12 hours.

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:45 AM, OHSnow said:

Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning?

Could be wrong but I think a year ago or so DTX lowered their threshold amounts for both ws warning and ww advisories.

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:45 AM, OHSnow said:

Why is Detroit under a WSW when the forecast only calls for 3-6 inches? Warning criteria is supposed to be 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours -- how does 3-6" qualify as a warning?

DTX says its a "low end" warning. You need to remember that this will be hitting at the peak of the morning rush.

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:47 AM, patrick7032 said:

Because warning criteria is 4 inches in 5 hours.....5 inches in 8 hours....6 inches in 12 hours....8 inches in 24 hours....3 to 6 inches with a mix in 12 hours.

No... there's only a 12- and 24-hour criteria.

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  On 2/25/2011 at 2:56 AM, snowstormcanuck said:

It's not like the 0z-1z RUC are amazing or anything. They just maintain continuity while the NAM went a fair bit further SE. I don't think we get just a dusting, which is what the 0z NAM would suggest.

I know but the NAM doesn't seem right to me. Any word on the 21z SREFS?

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