Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thank you. Not a forecast map but a future look at what is expected to happen? Just a singular model output to be considered with the 28 other models out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It is currently in NE oklahoma. The low is slowly deepening. Still not quite sure why it's not going further north. Per latests SPC mesoanalysis, dual sfc lows are roughly in SE OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z NAM drops 10" on IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Funny tho, IWX mentions thinking heavier snow may creep N into its adv. counties and leaving the evening shift to monitor the northward momentum of the snow. Sometimes frustrating to see the different interpretations from different WFO's and even what models to hug or blend. Maybe more impressive mid level dyamics = potential for further north defo band? I don't know, but based on the pressure change map SpartyOn posted, the RUC might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That was only if the low tracked through DC. ehhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 DTX>>>>>> WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONSOF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR HOLDING ON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SWATH OF SNOW. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CLIMB TO ABOUT 2 G/KG THROUGH 700MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE M-59 CORRIDOR FOR ROUGHLY A 6-8 HOUR WINDOW OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOES INCREASE ABOVE 700MB(ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MACOMB TO ADRIAN) THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP IN MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS. DEFORMATION ABOVE 600MB WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OPEN MID-LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR BUT SOME LIMITING FACTORS ARE IN PLACE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD ALSO END UP BEING JUST A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BE LIMITED TO A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW BETWEEN 3AM AND 8AM WITH LIGHTER SNOW LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING BETWEEN .3-.4 INCH QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A 10:1 OR 12:1 SNOW RATIO. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE QPF DECREASING TOWARDS THE M-59 CORRIDOR...THE 12Z NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING JUST AS MUCH QPF IN THAT AREA AS DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP AND PIVOTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. CERTAINLY THINK THE NAM MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS JUST NORTH OF THAT LINE. WITH SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT IF THE NAM PLACES THIS BAND IN THE RIGHT LOCATION AND A SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON THE 18Z NAM...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TAPER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN RAPIDLY NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE METRO DETROIT AREA DOWN TO THE OHIO BORDER IS FORECAST TO HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE VERGE OF WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT HIGH PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A LOW END WARNING FOR LENAWEE/MONROE/WAYNE COUNTIES...AND AN ADVISORY FOR WASHTENAW/THE M-59 CORRIDOR/ST CLAIR(MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY) FOR ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN JUST A TOUCH AND THE HEADLINES WILL NOT START UNTIL 2 AM. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AND POOR CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 CLE going with 8-14" for Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 DTX>>>>>> That was an informative write up. Ive noticed that the afternoon write ups are much more informative as of late. I like their thoughts and it sounds spot on as to what we have been tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 snip from LOT THE DRY AIR WILL BE THE WILD CARD. 18Z DATA JUST COMING IN IS REALLY EMPHASIZING THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA OR JUST NORTH OF THE BEST WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTH OF FORCING MORE DIRECTLY TIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DO NOT WANT TO UNDERPLAY THE MITIGATING EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR BUT DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING THE IMPACT. PAST EVENTS THIS SEASON HAVE SHOWN THAT THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HOLDS OFF PRECIP TOO LONG IN THESE SITUATIONS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE IMPRESSIVE FORCING AND PRECIP MAY QUICKLY BREAK OUT. SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING AND RESULTANT AMOUNTS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES AS IS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That was an informative write up. Ive noticed that the afternoon write ups are much more informative as of late. I like their thoughts and it sounds spot on as to what we have been tracking. Overall 3-5 inches...Its a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Huge bust potential in the IND metro area. I'd watch the area from the north side of the city over toward Muncie and Winchester. That area could get clocked if it's mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Huge bust potential in the IND metro area. I'd watch the area from the north side of the city over toward Muncie and Winchester. That area could get clocked if it's mostly snow. Looking at the text output at the 12z HWRF, it doesn't match the clown maps. Has heavy snow down in Muncie and even Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Back to a sexier RUC run after the disappointment of the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nice fronto band in the Omaha area... 0322 PM HEAVY SNOW OFFUTT AFB 41.11N 95.92W 02/24/2011 E3.0 INCH SARPY NE CO-OP OBSERVER THREE INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looking at the text output at the 12z HWRF, it doesn't match the clown maps. Has heavy snow down in Muncie and even Dayton. I'd trust that. I only use the maps for a generalized bigger picture. I'm really liking that corridor I just mentioned...they are starting off with cooler surface temps and have a lot of qpf so the big question is what happens aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT LAF: 0.98 IND: 1.37 mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Where can I find the text output for 12Z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT LAF: 0.98 IND: 1.37 mostly snow How likely is that? Is the NAM accurate this far in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 How likely is that? Is the NAM accurate this far in? I wouldn't completely rule it out. I wouldn't go as high as what the NAM is showing for Indy, but the potential is there for amounts much higher than forecast. Other models and current trends support a slightly colder solution. This is a true nowcast event for central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Huge bust potential in the IND metro area. I'd watch the area from the north side of the city over toward Muncie and Winchester. That area could get clocked if it's mostly snow. I agree completely, I am at 34 here, and all day we were forecast to be 40 or higher, and when I read the AFD and watch/adv statements I was shocked. Things are colder and qpf is high, huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 <br />Huge bust potential in the IND metro area. I'd watch the area from the north side of the city over toward Muncie and Winchester. That area could get clocked if it's mostly snow.<br /> I'm gonna get 2"! Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 RUC forecast soundings for Indianapolis. You either love this or hate it if you're a meteorologist. A city of almost 1 million people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I live in northern Del county, so I use the Indy zones, but also the IWX zones for Blackford/Jay, and IWX has just updated their zones, and for Blackford/Jay, 8-9" total...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I live in northern Del county, so I use the Indy zones, but also the IWX zones for Blackford/Jay, and IWX has just updated their zones, and for Blackford/Jay, 8-9" total...... Yeah that's interesting...those amounts look to be a bit higher than the previous forecast. Usually offices won't update that soon after the afternoon package especially when the event hasn't started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 My 2-3" call for the QC from last night may be too high. RUC shows less than an inch now. Last night it was the furthest north. I'm thinking 1-2" now, even though the NWS is calling for 3-5". Congrats from Quincy to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This storm will represent the end of met winter and possibly for alot of us further south, the last storm of winter(unless there is a fluke storm later in March). I know. Hoping for one big snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 23z analysis has the a 1001mb low in NE AR, just SW of the MO bootheel. Best 3 hour pressure falls towards W KY, so it just be rounding the bend soon. Models seem to have a good handle on this. Not seeing any evidence of a north/south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looking to me like the northern edge of this system in Iowa may bust. There is a heavy band from southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa, but it is not making any progress northward. Omaha was supposed to get 2-4 inches, but the northern half of the city apparently hasn't received a flake and the snow is pulling away. Des Moines has 2-5 for their metro and it appears they are only getting brushed by the band with nothing being reported north of Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Improving FWLIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL/IN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 242320Z - 250515Z SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD E-NEWD ACROSS SERN IA...NERN MO...AND PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL/IN THIS EVENING. RATES WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STRONG ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND E-NEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/IN... RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COOLING THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL BE AUGMENTED BY ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE FORCING. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SNOWFALL RATES TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS REGION...THE JUXTAPOSITION OF AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PER RECENT TPW IMAGERY WITH INCREASING SLANTWISE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BANDING AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES...ESPECIALLY IF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE TO OCCUR. ..COHEN.. 02/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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