snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 15z SREFS nudge south to join the 12z consensus party. They have been followers the whole month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM looks slower, deeper, but on roughly the same track as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM looks slower, deeper, but on roughly the same track as 12z. Drops about 1" qpf on LAF all snow. Starting to wonder if my 6-8" is a little too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM looks slower, deeper, but on roughly the same track as 12z. moving on up in QPF slightly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Drops about 1" qpf on LAF all snow. Starting to wonder if my 6-8" is a little too conservative. Don't agree with IND's afternoon warning decision. They left the current warnings and advisories in place as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Drops about 1" qpf on LAF all snow. Starting to wonder if my 6-8" is a little too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Don't agree with IND's afternoon warning decision. They left the current warnings and advisories in place as is. Yeah I think there's enough evidence (not talking 18z NAM) to ramp up snow totals. Models have trended a tad cooler which increases the snow threat farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Drops about 1" qpf on LAF all snow. Starting to wonder if my 6-8" is a little too conservative. My rule of thumb is to always cut NAM QPF by about 10-25% once it starts getting into amounts of say greater than 0.75". But with that impressive blob of pcpn moving right towards you, maybe this is winter's going away present for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah I think there's enough evidence (not talking 18z NAM) to ramp up snow totals. Models have trended a tad cooler which increases the snow threat farther south. ChicagoWX's pessimism paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah I think there's enough evidence (not talking 18z NAM) to ramp up snow totals. Models have trended a tad cooler which increases the snow threat farther south. I expect the 10 bucks in the mail by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Most all around unsatisfying near to above normal snowfall winter I can remember. Ya, i hear ya Looks like a good storm is coming then we get shafted at last minute. There has been a southerly shift at last minute this season. The last La Nina in 07-08 winter did the NW trend from models, to our benefit. C'est la vie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 moving on up in QPF slightly here Looks about the same here. What I wouldn't give for a 50 mile shift NW. That's all we'd really need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Go for 8-12 unless you want to swing for the fences and go with 10-14. Well I already did a final call so I guess this would have to be a final final. We're still at 39 degrees but it should cool enough when it counts so I imagine little if anything will be lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 moving on up in QPF slightly here something tell me that the models are doing a *bleepy* job handling the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I expect the 10 bucks in the mail by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Most all around unsatisfying near to above normal snowfall winter I can remember. For me, it's 1995-96 (hopefully Torontonian can remember this as well). Finished with around 55", but there was no 6"+ storm. And there were lots of thaws in between the cold snaps. Overall snow depth that winter was less impressive than this winter. And to make things worse, there were several near misses (Jan 3rd, 1996 and the one that really hurt the most--March 20th, 1996). That March storm was forecast to give Toronto 8-10", but ended up getting 3" of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SEMI. At this point, the only way we can go is to have this system over produce..IMO not a bad situation to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I expect the 10 bucks in the mail by Monday That was only if the low tracked through DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That was only if the low tracked through DC. Speaking of DC, it's gonna feel like that with a big snow that melts in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer1973 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Probably overdone but I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated double digit amounts north of I-70 Is this an actual forecast map? If so I foresee a LOT of shoveling tomorrow and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 For me, it's 1995-96 (hopefully Torontonian can remember this as well). Finished with around 55", but there was no 6"+ storm. And there were lots of thaws in between the cold snaps. Overall snow depth that winter was less impressive than this winter. And to make things worse, there were several near misses (Jan 3rd, 1996 and the one that really hurt the most--March 20th, 1996). That March storm was forecast to give Toronto 8-10", but ended up getting 3" of wet snow. I don't specifically remember the dates but found all of mid 1990's disappointing around here. Maybe it was 1995 but i remember it being 32 degrees and cloudy all of Feb. it seemed, with nothing to show. This looked potentially good today but not now. We still have about 4 weeks. Yawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is this an actual forecast map? If so I foresee a LOT of shoveling tomorrow and Saturday. That is the hi-res WRF-NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer1973 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That is the hi-res WRF-NMM Thank you. Not a forecast map but a future look at what is expected to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 For me, it's 1995-96 (hopefully Torontonian can remember this as well). Finished with around 55", but there was no 6"+ storm. And there were lots of thaws in between the cold snaps. Overall snow depth that winter was less impressive than this winter. And to make things worse, there were several near misses (Jan 3rd, 1996 and the one that really hurt the most--March 20th, 1996). That March storm was forecast to give Toronto 8-10", but ended up getting 3" of wet snow. That sounds worse than this year because it would seem there's little snowcover/snowdepth that year. But I was too young to remember the specifics. Also, although I'm on track for a near/above normal snowfall winter (along with North York and Buttonville), downtown and Pearson are still way back in the race. So there's still a decent chance that Toronto "officially" ends up below normal, which is truly amazing if you consider what's been going on to our east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nice W/V image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Latest RUC now keeps the sfc low predominantly SOUTH of the Ohio River. Even the low end amounts are going to have big time bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 the RUC has been on straight shot south each run all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Latest RUC now keeps the sfc low predominantly SOUTH of the Ohio River. Even the low end amounts are going to have big time bust potential. It is currently in NE oklahoma. The low is slowly deepening. Still not quite sure why it's not going further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Latest RUC now keeps the sfc low predominantly SOUTH of the Ohio River. Even the low end amounts are going to have big time bust potential. Funny tho, IWX mentions thinking heavier snow may creep N into its adv. counties and leaving the evening shift to monitor the northward momentum of the snow. Sometimes frustrating to see the different interpretations from different WFO's and even what models to hug or blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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