SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Per the Euro DTW .27 Someone confirm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Per the Euro DTW .27 Someone confirm . Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 QPF: DVN: 0.29" PIA: 0.43" ORD: 0.10" MDW: 0.14" IKK: 0.30" LAF: 0.72" OKK: 0.85" IND: 1.51" CMH: 1.49" GRR: 0.04" DTW: 0.27" TOL: 0.58" YYZ: 0.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 QPF keeps backing down for the northern edge areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I do not feel this is a proper way to address an individual in any debate. Classless. If you go on in this field which I suspect you hope is meteorology you had better develop a thicker skin . I have done nothing but point out and support my point of view...always. Nothing referenced as personal. In fact, my last post with regards to this storm and your mocking of me was to point out the fact the very ideas I pinpointed(and they were tongue and cheek bullet points) were now being raised as concerns with regard to this storm by some other posters. Your response was unnecessary and lacked complete class. As a sidenote...can you please highlight concerns you have with respect to this storm and the chance of it not maximizing its potential in north east Illinois. I will await your response. Baum, I don't know what's up your butt. I think you're doing a lot of unnecessary pushing here. I hope the other poster chooses to ignore your baiting. I'm just an older weather lover and (mostly) lurker who likes things to stay civil. Todd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 QPF: DVN: 0.29" PIA: 0.43" ORD: 0.10" MDW: 0.14" IKK: 0.30" LAF: 0.72" OKK: 0.85" IND: 1.51" CMH: 1.49" GRR: 0.04" DTW: 0.27" TOL: 0.58" YYZ: 0.22" This winter has left me with a classic case of blue balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah ill get crap for this but if i was a professional met, at least over here...GFS far and away the most USEFUL model with this system consistent unidirectional moves while all other models lurch around at ridiculous rates playing a game of darts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to wait and see if the dry air really does win out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah ill get crap for this but if i was a professional met, at least over here...GFS far and away the most USEFUL model with this system consistent unidirectional moves while all other models lurch around at ridiculous rates playing a game of darts. Have to disagree. It was completely clueless with it's almost E-W track OTS at the mid-atlantic for several runs. EURO overdid the northward extent of the track initially but at the end of the day it'll be closer to reality. I'd give EURO the gold here, unless in the next 18 hours things really start to kick in with the suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to disagree. It was completely clueless with it's almost E-W track OTS at the mid-atlantic for several runs. EURO overdid the northward extent of the track initially but at the end of the day it'll be closer to reality. I'd give EURO the gold here, unless in the next 18 hours things really start to kick in with the suppression. GFS was taking the surface low over DC and off the coast when I made my 10 dollar post. Slow and consistent trends again, but as far as what had a lesser amount of mileage error from several days ago, it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think I'll jump on the bandwagon now. My confidence in Cleveland getting a 10"+ storm is rapidly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to disagree. It was completely clueless with it's almost E-W track OTS at the mid-atlantic for several runs. EURO overdid the northward extent of the track initially but at the end of the day it'll be closer to reality. I'd give EURO the gold here, unless in the next 18 hours things really start to kick in with the suppression. This doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but YTZ (Toronto Island airport) gets 0.26" QPF from today's 12z Euro run. I could very well see the northern Greater Toronto area (RIchmond Hill, Newmarket ) get next to nothing while downtown Toronto and points southwest get 2"+ of snow. As of now, my prelim call for Toronto (south of highway 401) is 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Blend the 12z's and it still shows a 3-6 inch event for 8 mile south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I dnt get the point and click forecats for north ohio. Says 6-8 in the warning text but it says 2-5 on the point and click from toledo to sandusky to cleveland. Maybe they are concerned about warmer air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but YTZ (Toronto Island airport) gets 0.26" QPF from today's 12z Euro run. I could very well see the northern Greater Toronto area (RIchmond Hill, Newmarket ) get next to nothing while downtown Toronto and points southwest get 2"+ of snow. As of now, my prelim call for Toronto (south of highway 401) is 2-3". Sounds like a good call. I don't see anything as of yet that indicates the models are off base with what they were showing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to disagree. It was completely clueless with it's almost E-W track OTS at the mid-atlantic for several runs. EURO overdid the northward extent of the track initially but at the end of the day it'll be closer to reality. I'd give EURO the gold here, unless in the next 18 hours things really start to kick in with the suppression. All perspective. OL was right in that the Euro may have had the 4-5 day stuff handled much better--but within that time frame it was back and forth "dart board" oscillations with the largest deviations on the northern edge of the precip line. GFS made the consistent changes within day 3-4 (I don't remember one run deviating one way besides slowly N) and generally had the better idea of convective driven pressure falls along the warm front/triple point and a farther S warm front. I don't crown any model the "winner". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So will DTX drop the watch for Wayne and replace it with a WWA. Will the snowfalls meet the requirements for a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to disagree. It was completely clueless with it's almost E-W track OTS at the mid-atlantic for several runs. EURO overdid the northward extent of the track initially but at the end of the day it'll be closer to reality. I'd give EURO the gold here, unless in the next 18 hours things really start to kick in with the suppression. i agree, but in the end it made a smooth transition to the correct track. only a weenie like us cares about how much snow we are getting on day 5 progs i suppose its a matter of personal preference, but personally i felt the euro was not great. at least up here. number of false alarms from the euro was off the charts with this one, probably close to 10. number of false alarms from the GFS: 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The AMWX WRF in case anyone forgot to look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Convection "robbing" moisture is certainly an occurrence than can happen--but just because convection is happening does not mean that it is "robbing" the moisture feed of the storm--and, in fact, can be quite the opposite depending on the orientation and configuration of the storm. In this positive tilt scenario with the cold front positioned well on the backside of the storm and convection initiating along a prefrontal trough ahead of the surface dryline--the generally SSW wind fields are advecting thunderstorms directly into the WCB and into the the frontal circulation. Much of this is then "wrapped" around the closed mid level circulation as air ascends into the divergent portion of the upper troposphere associated with the upper low/ageo jet circulation. Every storm is different--and convection can certainly be a large problem--especially in negative tilt storms with large occlusions/dry slots where deep convection develops along the boundary but is effectively "blocked" from advecting into the WCB. Another scenario is a large mid-latitude storm that develops over the northern states in late spring with significant deep convection developing near the GOM which can significantly alter the air mass advecting through the plains. This storm is, even with the different configuration, is more similar to the Groundhog storm where deep, moist convection aided in both CCB development owing to extreme surface/low level pressure/height falls but do to the coupled interaction between the rapidly deepening dynamic trop/cold front and the rapidly developing ageo jet circulation in response to the enhanced vertical thermal gradient as the cold front aloft coupled with the surface cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The AMWX WRF in case anyone forgot to look.. IND metro is increasingly tough to call wrt snow accumulations. Could see the northern side getting in on the heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Convection "robbing" moisture is certainly an occurrence than can happen--but just because convection is happening does not mean that it is "robbing" the moisture feed of the storm--and, in fact, can be quite the opposite depending on the orientation and configuration of the storm. In this positive tilt scenario with the cold front positioned well on the backside of the storm and convection initiating along a prefrontal trough ahead of the surface dryline--the generally SSW wind fields are advecting thunderstorms directly into the WCB and into the the frontal circulation. Much of this is then "wrapped" around the closed mid level circulation as air ascends into the divergent portion of the upper troposphere associated with the upper low/ageo jet circulation. Every storm is different--and convection can certainly be a large problem--especially in negative tilt storms with large occlusions/dry slots where deep convection develops along the boundary but is effectively "blocked" from advecting into the WCB. Another scenario is a large mid-latitude storm that develops over the northern states in late spring with significant deep convection developing near the GOM which can significantly alter the air mass advecting through the plains. This storm is, even with the different configuration, is more similar to the Groundhog storm where deep, moist convection aided in both CCB development owing to extreme surface/low level pressure/height falls but do to the coupled interaction between the rapidly deepening dynamic trop/cold front and the rapidly developing ageo jet circulation in response to the enhanced vertical thermal gradient as the cold front aloft coupled with the surface cold front. In lamens terms, this positivley tiled storm is less likely to have convection robbing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Convection "robbing" moisture is certainly an occurrence than can happen--but just because convection is happening does not mean that it is "robbing" the moisture feed of the storm--and, in fact, can be quite the opposite depending on the orientation and configuration of the storm. In this positive tilt scenario with the cold front positioned well on the backside of the storm and convection initiating along a prefrontal trough ahead of the surface dryline--the generally SSW wind fields are advecting thunderstorms directly into the WCB and into the the frontal circulation. Much of this is then "wrapped" around the closed mid level circulation as air ascends into the divergent portion of the upper troposphere associated with the upper low/ageo jet circulation. Every storm is different--and convection can certainly be a large problem--especially in negative tilt storms with large occlusions/dry slots where deep convection develops along the boundary but is effectively "blocked" from advecting into the WCB. Another scenario is a large mid-latitude storm that develops over the northern states in late spring with significant deep convection developing near the GOM which can significantly alter the air mass advecting through the plains. This storm is, even with the different configuration, is more similar to the Groundhog storm where deep, moist convection aided in both CCB development owing to extreme surface/low level pressure/height falls but do to the coupled interaction between the rapidly deepening dynamic trop/cold front and the rapidly developing ageo jet circulation in response to the enhanced vertical thermal gradient as the cold front aloft coupled with the surface cold front. Your posts are always informative. Thank you for the info and explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 In lamens terms, this positivley tiled storm is less likely to have convection robbing moisture. Yes, for the most part yes. Also--should clear up a few terms for those who may not know. CCB = cold conveyor belt which is the "wraparound" snows in the cold sector. WCB = warm conveyor belt often simply referred to as the LLJ (low level jet). GOM = Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Your posts are always informative. Thank you for the info and explanation. No problem! If you have questions just ask anyone they will likely help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Probably overdone but I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated double digit amounts north of I-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Sounds like a good call. I don't see anything as of yet that indicates the models are off base with what they were showing at 12z. This morning it was 4-6 inches for safe call, sure enough 8 hrs later we are talking now half that. So i thought. This winter of synoptic malcontent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The calendar day record snowfall for CLE is 13.6" from February 23rd,1993. With November 25, 1950 coming in at 2nd with 12.8". Potential exists for coming close to the calendar day record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Probably overdone but I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated double digit amounts north of I-70 Northern Ohio is destroyed. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This morning it was 4-6 inches for safe call, sure enough 8 hrs later we are talking now half that. So i thought. This winter of synoptic malcontent here. Most all around unsatisfying near to above normal snowfall winter I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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