dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Caplan set the over/under for this event, I got to pick. 3.2" at ORD...I went with the over. I will go over Detroits should be 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Better cross your fingers that the dry air doesn't win out. Looks pretty brutal on that northern cutoff. Thats my main concern...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thats my main concern...we'll see. Same here. Im 35 Miles north of DTW...I would be lucky to get 3" Im in the "danger zone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It'll be interesting to watch how that precipitation over Nebraska evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It'll be interesting to watch how that precipitation over Nebraska evolves. Seems to be saturating a bit earlier than forecast based on the 12Z NAM in Iowa.Lots of mid-level lift going on there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't think dry air will be too much of a problem with this. There's no high pressure over Ontario or Quebec that would supply cold, dry air. Plus, there's a lot of low cloudiness around right now which isn't really indicative of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTZILLINOIS Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is the heaviest band still being predicted across the peoria-bloomington corridor? Or is it tracking further south? We are about 60 miles south (Decatur area) and wondered what you think we should expect for total snowfall with this storm? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1044 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 DISCUSSION ISSUED 1044 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IL...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...REACHING THE OZARKS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXTREME WESTERN KY BY MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LIFT/DYNAMICS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF THUNDERSNOW...WHICH WE MAY BE ADDING TO THE FORECAST LATER. THIS WOULD REALLY CAUSE SNOW AMOUNTS TO PILE UP IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN A 50 TO 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF CENTRAL IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Final call will be 3" here in Toronto. Very sharp gradient but I can't see the models trending any further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Final call here in the Warsaw area...8". I look to be in the sweet spot for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is the heaviest band still being predicted across the peoria-bloomington corridor? Or is it tracking further south? We are about 60 miles south (Decatur area) and wondered what you think we should expect for total snowfall with this storm? looks right on track.....but it's a NOWCAST situation so it may change hour by hour..best place for updates is here.. I am a little concerned that convection south of US in MO and S IL may rob some of the moisture up our way..I have seen that happen in the late season events for you its a question of changeover timing 3-5 still looks good also would you please add your location to your profile so we can remember where you are at when you post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241713Z - 242315Z MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM NEAR MANHATTAN KS TO WHITEMAN AFB IN MO NWD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WERE BEING REPORTED AS OF 17Z. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA AND SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH WET BULB PROCESSES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA. EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 19-20Z. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL AR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE FRONT WILL WRAP ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND MID LEVEL LOW /LOCATED OVER SRN KS/NRN OK AT 18Z PER 12Z NAM FORECAST/ INTO MCD AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW /850 MB WINDS 40 KT...50KT AT 500MB/ AND A VORTICITY MAX LIFTING NEWD FROM SERN KS INTO NWRN MO THROUGH 21Z. 12Z NAM FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION AND BANDED PRECIPITATION. MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR BY 20-21Z. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCED EWD RATHER QUICKLY. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Can watch saturation occur on the VAD wind profile out of DSM. Running BUFKIT to compare to model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Feeling more comfortable than last night. I'm gonna narrow my range a tad from yesterday and go with a final call of 6-8" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1101 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 UPDATE HAVE RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE WARNING. EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN HIGHWAY 30 AND 34 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A BIT MORE QPF AND CONCERNED WITH CONVECTION (THUNDERSNOWS) THIS EVENING ADDING TO THE TOTALS. 12Z COBB DATA SHOWS OVER 10 INCHES AT BRL. MIXING RATIOS OF 4 G/KG WOULD SUGGEST 8 INCHES HOWEVER STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WOULD ADD TO THAT TOTAL. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SUGGESTS NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SO EVEN IN AREAS WHERE THE ADVISORY HEADLINE IS LOCATED THERE MAY BE ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. THE STRONGEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE SNOW BEGINNING IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MSAS DATA SHOWS THE BEST 3 HR PRES FALLS ARE IN SOUTHERN MO INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW IN OK TRACKING THROUGH THE OZARKS AND THEN INTO PA ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN PORTIONS OF AR AND IN THE 40S IN SOUTHERN MO. WITH THE 850 MB 0C LINE COLLAPSING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW WITH THE MIXTURE SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Can watch saturation occur on the VAD wind profile out of DSM. Running BUFKIT to compare to model data. VAD clearly shows a 6-7 kft saturation level, whereas NAM has this around 12kft atm and doesn't lower it to 7kft until 3 PM. This bears watching for anybody on the northern fringe. It has likely either underdone the lift or overdone the dry air layer (or a combination of the both). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 4km WRF shows N. IL from RFD to ORD getting almost completely shut out. Would end up with less than what we got last night. Going to be interesting to see what wins here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Gona take the over on DTW - PTK. 4-7.. Too bullish? Maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yes. But it would not be the actual tornadoes rather the convection robbing the moisture transport northward depriving the cold conveyor of it's ability to kick back snow into the deformation zone. As for Stebo his problem maybe the Cold Dry high pumping dry air into the storm on the north and east quadrant of the system. As for the warm temps at night not sure where that is coming from...but Thundersnow I am sure you are aware that strong WAA can cancel out the usual diurnal swings in temps. In fact I suspect that is Hoosiers concern if the system comes too far north. btw..actually did have several phone conversations with Mr. Skilling back in the '80's before cable,computers, and forums. He is as helpful as he seems. And no I did not have cocktails with him. Hey Thundersnow, yesterday you were giving me grief for pooh poohing and negativity. Yet in the last several post we have seen one respected Met. post(greatly appreciate the input btw) with regards to dry air and now Janet expressing concerns regarding moisture feed...what say you? any final thoughts on this scenario personally: I see this pretty much panning out as progged with 2-4 through Chicago and somebody between IKK and LAF getting clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hey Thundersnow, yesterday you were giving me grief for pooh poohing and negativity. Yet in the last several post we have seen one respected Met. post(greatly appreciate the input btw) with regards to dry air and now Janet expressing concerns regarding moisture feed...what say you? any final thoughts on this scenario Yeah, that convection sure is robbing the moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah, that convection sure is robbing the moisture transport. did not say it was...far from it> Referring to this post from Janet: looks right on track.....but it's a NOWCAST situation so it may change hour by hour..best place for updates is here.. I am a little concerned that convection south of US in MO and S IL may rob some of the moisture up our way..I have seen that happen in the late season events for you its a question of changeover timing 3-5 still looks good also would you please add your location to your profile so we can remember where you are at when you post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hey Thundersnow, yesterday you were giving me grief for pooh poohing and negativity. Yet in the last several post we have seen one respected Met. post(greatly appreciate the input btw) with regards to dry air and now Janet expressing concerns regarding moisture feed...what say you? any final thoughts on this scenario personally: I see this pretty much panning out as progged with 2-4 through Chicago and somebody between IKK and LAF getting clocked. you must of missed him say this, I'm done fighting with you so give it a rest already and shut up. VAD clearly shows a 6-7 kft saturation level, whereas NAM has this around 12kft atm and doesn't lower it to 7kft until 3 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 did not say it was...far from it> Referring to this post from Janet: looks right on track.....but it's a NOWCAST situation so it may change hour by hour..best place for updates is here.. I am a little concerned that convection south of US in MO and S IL may rob some of the moisture up our way..I have seen that happen in the late season events for you its a question of changeover timing 3-5 still looks good also would you please add your location to your profile so we can remember where you are at when you post You said it too...you bolded it in your post like 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You said it too...you bolded it in your post like 5 minutes ago. That was a tongue and cheek post from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 DMX appears to have shifted WWA/WSW northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Watching returns struggle to push into northeast MO is telling for IL. Models have been hinting at a band further west into Iowa and then a dry punch through NE Illinois and I think we'll be seeing that play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 39 here. Can't recall too many recent significant snowstorms when we were this warm within hours of onset, but this will be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 39 here. Can't recall too many recent significant snowstorms when we were this warm within hours of onset, but this will be one of them. Bank clock said 37 here 1/2 hr ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 you must of missed him say this, I'm done fighting with you so give it a rest already and shut up. VAD clearly shows a 6-7 kft saturation level, whereas NAM has this around 12kft atm and doesn't lower it to 7kft until 3 PM. I do not feel this is a proper way to address an individual in any debate. Classless. If you go on in this field which I suspect you hope is meteorology you had better develop a thicker skin . I have done nothing but point out and support my point of view...always. Nothing referenced as personal. In fact, my last post with regards to this storm and your mocking of me was to point out the fact the very ideas I pinpointed(and they were tongue and cheek bullet points) were now being raised as concerns with regard to this storm by some other posters. Your response was unnecessary and lacked complete class. As a sidenote...can you please highlight concerns you have with respect to this storm and the chance of it not maximizing its potential in north east Illinois. I will await your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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