Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Last minute NW trend ftw please. I will say this. In the past when northern Indiana ohio looks to be under the gun almost always it moves further north. Didn't happen with the last storm because of the first wave blocking it. The faster the north wave moves and the better chance this goes more NW. Need it to strenghten too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think a general 3-6 inches around the Metro Detroit area is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I made a call a couple of days ago of 3-5" and some mixing at the onset. I am sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Also weird how the watches and warnings are lined up. Flat accross in the plains then the more typical ne oriented as you move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 classic dry east flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think a general 3-6 inches around the Metro Detroit area is a good call. good call. Up here will be in the 2-4 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Probably, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting nowcasting storm. I'm not seeing what is causing this storm to have such a flat track, except that the H5 wave is not particularly impressive. The northern stream confluence zone plays a part, but not large enough of one to force the sfc center to hug the Ohio river like that while it's in the process of deepening. this is a good point. im not optimistic seeing the energy come in weaker on the 00z models (except the RGEM) and the trends at 6z and 12z so far contine that theme......looks we may have peaked around 18z-00z last night. but your point is still valid given the lack of any significant features to force a flat track.....although it would fit the theme of the winter beautifully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer1973 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 13z RUC is even further south. Basically moves the sfc low due east across northern AR before finally turning it to the north around the MO bootheel. Not out beyond 16 hours but it looks like it'd be only a touch north of the NAM. KCLE just dropped our forecast totals for tonight from 3-7 tonight to 1-3. Still under Winter Storm Watch while most surrounding counties have been a Warning since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 FWIW even the further south 13z RUC still dumps 10"-20" inches in CHicago. It extrapolates ENE to Detroit and Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well....I'll let you guys know how Akron holds up during this event! I think it's going to be awfully close!!! I think Cleveland is going to get a good synoptic snow, but I might be in mix land. I'm not complaining though as I already had one awful commute this week. I will try to post some obs later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not sure how that much QPF gets up this way with that sh!tty track across KY. Thus i have my doubts. Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks as if the 6z and the 12z looks fairly the same. Minor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 FWIW even the further south 13z RUC still dumps 10"-20" inches in CHicago. It extrapolates ENE to Detroit and Toledo. Yeah, the 14z looks pretty good for those areas too. Keep in mind this is just one-hour precip, so that is 1-2" per hour snows across N Ill. and Ind. The 15z is running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks as if the 6z and the 12z looks fairly the same. Minor differences. GFS spits out 3-5 inches across the area which isnt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 FWIW even the further south 13z RUC still dumps 10"-20" inches in CHicago. It extrapolates ENE to Detroit and Toledo. Its so difficult to write off the RUC as a piece of guidance. Its been steady Eddie with last few systems. I think its way overdone to the NW but it may giving some hindsight into what we will see during Nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah, the 14z looks pretty good for those areas too. Keep in mind this is just one-hour precip, so that is 1-2" per hour snows across N Ill. and Ind. The 15z is running now. Hopefully that thing holds and quits trending south but yeah i know how that works. Not happening. Congrats IL/IN/OH south of i80 except in Ohio where it should make it to i80 i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd love to be sitting in northern MO to PIA to IKK to TOL line right now. Not that I don't think it won't be interesting here, but I think those areas are pretty solid in the "bullseye" for 4-8", with a few lollis higher if things break right though it's a relatively quick hitter so that will keep totals in check. For the two major climo sites in the path of this, thinking ORD 2-5", DTW 3-6". No change with my thinking for LAF. I'll error on the warm side and ride 1-4" with mix cutting down snow totals. As said before.. You are gold. The GFS now confirms that. Congrats! Should be a nice storm down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's pretty clear the RUC can't be taken seriously. It was a northwest outlier with the last system as well, I believe. I would like to believe areas 90 miles south of me get a foot or more, but not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 As said before.. You are gold. The GFS now confirms that. Congrats! Should be a nice storm down that way. We'll see. I remain hopeful that it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We'll see. I remain hopeful that it pans out. I swear, you are weather bipolar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 RUC seems to be placing more emphasis on the mid-level lows versus the actual surface low. That probably expains why it places the heavier preicpitaiton so far NW, as the surface low itself is in line with the regular models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 RUC seems tp be placing more emphasis on the mid-level lows versus the actual surface low. That probably expains why it places the heavier preicpitaiton so far NW, as the surface low itself is in line with the regular models. 15z run came south yet again. Welcome back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We'll see. I remain hopeful that it pans out. Well, if we end up with anything hopefully it'll only cause a 2 hour delay tomorrow.. There, I've came back from the whole I only want rain request.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Caplan set the over/under for this event, I got to pick. 3.2" at ORD...I went with the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just realized I haven't made a call, i'll go with 2.5" IMBY, dry easterly flow keeps things in check. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1044 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 DISCUSSION ISSUED 1044 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IL...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...REACHING THE OZARKS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXTREME WESTERN KY BY MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LIFT/DYNAMICS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF THUNDERSNOW...WHICH WE MAY BE ADDING TO THE FORECAST LATER. THIS WOULD REALLY CAUSE SNOW AMOUNTS TO PILE UP IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN A 50 TO 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF CENTRAL IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Caplan set the over/under for this event, I got to pick. 3.2" at ORD...I went with the over. Better cross your fingers that the dry air doesn't win out. Looks pretty brutal on that northern cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Caplan set the over/under for this event, I got to pick. 3.2" at ORD...I went with the over. Under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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