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Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Last minute NW trend ftw please. I will say this. In the past when northern Indiana ohio looks to be under the gun almost always it moves further north. Didn't happen with the last storm because of the first wave blocking it. The faster the north wave moves and the better chance this goes more NW. Need it to strenghten too!

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Probably, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting nowcasting storm. I'm not seeing what is causing this storm to have such a flat track, except that the H5 wave is not particularly impressive. The northern stream confluence zone plays a part, but not large enough of one to force the sfc center to hug the Ohio river like that while it's in the process of deepening.

this is a good point.

im not optimistic seeing the energy come in weaker on the 00z models (except the RGEM) and the trends at 6z and 12z so far contine that theme......looks we may have peaked around 18z-00z last night.

but your point is still valid given the lack of any significant features to force a flat track.....although it would fit the theme of the winter beautifully.

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13z RUC is even further south. Basically moves the sfc low due east across northern AR before finally turning it to the north around the MO bootheel. Not out beyond 16 hours but it looks like it'd be only a touch north of the NAM.

KCLE just dropped our forecast totals for tonight from 3-7 tonight to 1-3. Still under Winter Storm Watch while most surrounding counties have been a Warning since last night.

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Well....I'll let you guys know how Akron holds up during this event! I think it's going to be awfully close!!! I think Cleveland is going to get a good synoptic snow, but I might be in mix land. I'm not complaining though as I already had one awful commute this week.

I will try to post some obs later this evening :popcorn:

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FWIW even the further south 13z RUC still dumps 10"-20" inches in CHicago.

It extrapolates ENE to Detroit and Toledo.

Yeah, the 14z looks pretty good for those areas too. Keep in mind this is just one-hour precip, so that is 1-2" per hour snows across N Ill. and Ind. The 15z is running now.

ruc_p01_018l.gif

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FWIW even the further south 13z RUC still dumps 10"-20" inches in CHicago.

It extrapolates ENE to Detroit and Toledo.

Its so difficult to write off the RUC as a piece of guidance. Its been steady Eddie with last few systems. I think its way overdone to the NW but it may giving some hindsight into what we will see during Nowcasting.

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Yeah, the 14z looks pretty good for those areas too. Keep in mind this is just one-hour precip, so that is 1-2" per hour snows across N Ill. and Ind. The 15z is running now.

ruc_p01_018l.gif

Hopefully that thing holds and quits trending south but yeah i know how that works. Not happening. :lol: Congrats IL/IN/OH south of i80 except in Ohio where it should make it to i80 i suppose. :)

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I'd love to be sitting in northern MO to PIA to IKK to TOL line right now. Not that I don't think it won't be interesting here, but I think those areas are pretty solid in the "bullseye" for 4-8", with a few lollis higher if things break right though it's a relatively quick hitter so that will keep totals in check. For the two major climo sites in the path of this, thinking ORD 2-5", DTW 3-6". No change with my thinking for LAF. I'll error on the warm side and ride 1-4" with mix cutting down snow totals.

As said before.. You are gold. The GFS now confirms that. Congrats! Should be a nice storm down that way. :)

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RUC seems tp be placing more emphasis on the mid-level lows versus the actual surface low.

That probably expains why it places the heavier preicpitaiton so far NW, as the surface low itself is in line with the regular models.

15z run came south yet again.

Welcome back to reality.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

1044 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

DISCUSSION

ISSUED 1044 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN

PARTS OF CENTRAL IL...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET

FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO

INTENSIFY...REACHING THE OZARKS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXTREME

WESTERN KY BY MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN

OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. THIS IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN

IN SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN

RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL THIS

EVENING. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LIFT/DYNAMICS COULD RESULT IN

AREAS OF THUNDERSNOW...WHICH WE MAY BE ADDING TO THE FORECAST

LATER. THIS WOULD REALLY CAUSE SNOW AMOUNTS TO PILE UP IN THE

WARNING AREA TONIGHT. EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE AMPLE

MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER

THAN 6 INCHES IN A 50 TO 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF CENTRAL IL.

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