Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Definitely looks like LAF is in the zone for this one ... FINALLY! But looking at the NAM and GFS both show ICE ..25" to .50" across the donut counties here.. Can't say I'm confident in anything right now. Small shifts either way can really throw off the whole shebang. My inclination is to always skew to the warm side of things, as it seems the majority of the time the models are too cold. If I had to make a call, which I really don't what to do or am comfortable doing so, I'd go 1-4" for LAF with some sleet/rain holding down totals. Basically shift everything north by 50 or so miles in central Indiana. Not being negative trust me, just trying to use past experience with these things. Needless to say, it'll be interesting to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 9z SREF mean looks relatively similar to the 3z. It's been really trending towards a much more impressive CCB/deformation zone axis with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just realized I haven't made a call, i'll go with 2.5" IMBY, dry easterly flow keeps things in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just realized I haven't made a call, i'll go with 2.5" IMBY, dry easterly flow keeps things in check. thank you. Agreed. edit: please no guilt by association Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z NAM won't be coming in any north of 6z and my end up a hair south. Also quicker with initial WAA snows which is likely correct. Northern MO gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z NAM won't be coming in any north of 6z and my end up a hair south. Also quicker with initial WAA snows which is likely correct. Northern MO gets smoked. Yup. Deeper but a touch SE it looks through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 thank you. Agreed. edit: please no guilt by association I pretty much ripped off LOTs call and subtracted a bit because the entrenched dry flow. 12z NAM nearly shuts the area out completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup. Deeper but a touch SE it looks through 18 hours. Meh... So when it all balances out it should end up about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup. Deeper but a touch SE it looks through 18 hours. deeper but SE solutions normally raise red flags, but this is so similar to all other guidance, so it's probably nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ironically it looks EXACTLY like yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks decent for s/e Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ironically it looks EXACTLY like yesterday's 12z run. We need the 18z back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Meh... So when it all balances out it should end up about the same. Probably, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting nowcasting storm. I'm not seeing what is causing this storm to have such a flat track, except that the H5 wave is not particularly impressive. The northern stream confluence zone plays a part, but not large enough of one to force the sfc center to hug the Ohio river like that while it's in the process of deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Probably, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting nowcasting storm. I'm not seeing what is causing this storm to have such a flat track, except that the H5 wave is not particularly impressive. The northern stream confluence zone plays a part, but not large enough of one to force the sfc center to hug the Ohio river like while it's in the process of deepening. Like every other storm this season.. ANd I agree with your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This look a hair north then the 00z QPF wise the off hour runs 06/18z were always more north then the 00z/12z runs with this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z RUC is still pretty far NW (great hit for ORD-DTW), but it's south of how far north it had it a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 deeper but SE solutions normally raise red flags, but this is so similar to all other guidance, so it's probably nothing. The 5 NAM members in the SREFS are further NW than the OP NAM but they've been sucking lately so I'm not sure how much weight you can give them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Riding the razor's edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is it me or does the NAMs timing seem a hair slower than other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer1973 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z RUC is still pretty far NW (great hit for ORD-DTW), but it's south of how far north it had it a few runs ago. So that's good for me if I want more snow just south of Findlay, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd love to be sitting in northern MO to PIA to IKK to TOL line right now. Not that I don't think it won't be interesting here, but I think those areas are pretty solid in the "bullseye" for 4-8", with a few lollis higher if things break right though it's a relatively quick hitter so that will keep totals in check. For the two major climo sites in the path of this, thinking ORD 2-5", DTW 3-6". No change with my thinking for LAF. I'll error on the warm side and ride 1-4" with mix cutting down snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The 5 NAM members in the SREFS are further NW than the OP NAM but they've been sucking lately so I'm not sure how much weight you can give them. I won't be shocked if things end up NW of the 12z OP, but given how much support it has, I think it's a pretty reasonable run, especially with the RUC coming back to earth each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So that's good for me if I want more snow just south of Findlay, correct? RUC would be bad for anyone south of Toledo in Ohio (mostly ice/rain then dry slotting). However, it's southward adjustments are good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd love to be sitting in northern MO to PIA to IKK to TOL line right now. Not that I don't think it won't be interesting here, but I think those areas are pretty solid in the "bullseye" for 4-8", with a few lollis higher if things break right though it's a relatively quick hitter so that will keep totals in check. For the two major climo sites in the path of this, thinking ORD 2-5", DTW 3-6". No change with my thinking for LAF. I'll error on the warm side and ride 1-4" with mix cutting down snow totals. great call aside from your pessimistic bias towards LAF inside 48 hrs. I'm liking the same bullseye but would knock down amounts north and bump them up down around you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 great call aside from your pessimistic bias towards LAF inside 48 hrs. I'm liking the same bullseye but would knock down amounts north and bump them up down around you. Hey I'm trying to use sound judgment and not let pessimism rule my call. Alas, models tend to bust cold 9/10 times in these scenarios...and when you're literally riding the line on pretty much all of the guidance as LAF is, well you know. Maybe I'll be completely wrong, we'll see. Just my uneducated call for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 i want a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 DVN AFD .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THIS FORECAST IS ONE BIG REASON WE HAVE BEEN PLACING THE LINE IN THE HWO PRODUCT THAT THIS STORMS TRACK WAS UNCERTAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS NOW THAT IT IS IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...WITH THE STORM TAKING A TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE MORE NATURAL BAROCLINIC AXIS. THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACK SHOULD MOVE MOVE FROM KANSAS CITY TO BURLINGTON...TO CHICAGO THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD PLACE SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS UP THROUGH INTERSTATE 80 OR SO...AND THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS TO WHERE TO CONVERT FROM WARNING TO ADVISORY ON THIS EVENT. THE MID AFTERNOON START TIME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTH IS EARLY ENOUGH THAT A WATCH SEEMS INAPPROPRIATE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL NEED A WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND A BROAD ADVISORY UP THROUGH AN IOWA CITY TO CLINTON TO MT CARROLL LINE. SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING...BUT LIKELY NOT FULL BLOWING SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD FALL AROUND HIGHWAY 20...TO 3 TO 5 INCHES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 80...WITH HIGHWAY 34 AREAS AND SOUTH GETTING 5 TO 7. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS WILL ABSOLUTELY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SHOULD ANY OF THESE SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA...A BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE. UNDER CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY...TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS...AND DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT IN THE SNOW. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS VERY CLOSELY THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS. ..ERVIN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 RUC would be bad for anyone south of Toledo in Ohio (mostly ice/rain then dry slotting). However, it's southward adjustments are good for you. 13z RUC is even further south. Basically moves the sfc low due east across northern AR before finally turning it to the north around the MO bootheel. Not out beyond 16 hours but it looks like it'd be only a touch north of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hey I'm trying to use sound judgment and not let pessimism rule my call. Alas, models tend to bust cold 9/10 times in these scenarios...and when you're literally riding the line on pretty much all of the guidance as LAF is, well you know. Maybe I'll be completely wrong, we'll see. Just my uneducated call for MBY. I would agree here normally but with the last three storms the models have not handled the cold air well at all and have been to warm until within 12 hrs of start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 After seeing the last two storms trend south, if this goes north I'll have to . NAM looks good for 10" in Cleveland. For realistic storm totals I generally like to reduce by 30% and assume 10:1 ratio, therefore 7" looks like a realistic call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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