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Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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LOT AFD...

WILL BE BOOSTING THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING IN OUR SOUTHERN

TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT...AND STARTING A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DETERMINING SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT ON QPF...AND COBB

SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN SIMILARLY UNSTEADY. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS QPF

FIELDS ACTUALLY LINE UP PRETTY WELL...AND THE NAM MATCHES THE

GENERAL IDEA. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING GREATER

QPF TOTALS LIKELY WILL SEE SMALLER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. FARTHER

NORTH TOWARD THE WISCONSIN LINE THE MIDLEVEL FORCING IS MUCH GREATER

AND THE ZONE FOR FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT

DEEPER...BUT LIQUID TOTALS ARE MUCH LOWER. WE MAY END UP WITH TWO

SEPARATE SWATHS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ONE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE

LIQUID QPF IS HIGHEST AND ONE FROM THE LASALLE AREA INTO LAKE AND

COOK COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TAP INTO THE BETTER

MIDLEVEL FORCING.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE DVN AND MKX OFFICES THE ADVISORY FOR KLOT

WILL COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT PART OF

THIS AREA MAY YET NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...PERHAPS NOT

CONTIGUOUS TO THE FIRST WARNING...WHILE PART MAY SEE SNOW TOTALS

CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...A REASON FOR

EXTENDING IT TO THE CWA BORDERS THIS SOON...APART FROM THE

WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS WE ARE ANTICIPATING...WAS TO ALLOW

FLEXIBILITY AND AVOID GAPS LATER IF DVN AND MKX WISH TO ADD

HEADLINES TO ADDITIONAL COUNTIES.

OVERALL THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW...WITH

RATES AT TIMES GREATER THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. BY 12Z FRIDAY THINGS

SHOULD START WINDING DOWN...BUT THE COMMUTE FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY

WILL NOT BE EASY IN SOME AREAS...AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE

ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

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The SE nudge should have been pretty apparent because there's a meteorological rule that mby can never be anywhere near an axis of heavy snow.

EC and TWN are calling for over 6 inches total by tomorrow night.

Will we get half of what they call for like last couple of supposed storms?

Another wait and see. The SE movement might screw us again.:whistle:

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Current 12z observations out of Texas/OK/Mexico would suggest the models were a litttle too far NW during yesterday's 18z and 21z runs. 06z GFS seems to have a good handle on things so far.

Of course I could be wrong.

Things should be darn near (but still just shy of) fully sampled for the 12z run.

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Current 12z observations out of Texas/OK/Mexico would suggest the models were a litttle too far NW during yesterday's 18z and 21z runs. 06z GFS seems to have a good handle on things.

Of course I could be wrong.

Things should be darn near (but still just shy of) fully sampled this run.

Nah, you're not wrong. Even the 6z NAM was decent with the sfc low placement. I don't think initialization errors are the problem though. It's more what happens during the time the low traverses the OV. My hope is that the fairly rapid deepening (~1006 to low 990s or possibly high 980s in 30 hours) pulls the track a little further north than the 6z consensus. Past experience tells me that's probably a good bet, especially when you don't have massive arctic sfc ridging to the north. But aside from yesterday's 18z runs, there hasn't been much indication of this yet.

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Nah, you're not wrong. Even the 6z NAM was decent with the sfc low placement. I don't think initialization errors are the problem though. It's more what happens during the time the low traverses the OV. My hope is that the fairly rapid deepening (~1006 to low 990s or possibly high 980s in 30 hours) pulls the track a little further north than the 6z consensus. Past experience tells me that's probably a good bet, especially when you don't have massive arctic sfc ridging to the north. But aside from yesterday's 18z runs, there hasn't been much indication of this yet.

On the other hand it is still early and the best pressure falls right now are along the NE OK and SE KS border.

Meanwhile the RUC is slowly starting to come back to earth after the 09z run.

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Not for the faint of heart. Here's the zone forecasts for White County (IWX) and here in Tippecanoe County (IND)...White Co being the county just to the north of here.

White

Tonight...A mix of snow...sleet...rain...and freezing rain in the evening... Then snow...sleet and freezing rain after midnight. Blowing and drifting snow after midnight. Breezy. Snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 9 inches. Ice accumulation up to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday...Cloudy. Areas of blowing and drifting snow in the morning. Snow likely in the morning...then scattered flurries in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snow 70 percent.

Tippecanoe

Tonight...Breezy. Snow and rain...then snow after midnight. Areas of blowing snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 5 to 6 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Friday...Breezy. Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow until midday. Areas of blowing snow until midday. Nearly steady temperatures in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

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Not for the faint of heart. Here's the zone forecasts for White County (IWX) and here in Tippecanoe County (IND)...White Co being the county just to the north of here.

White

Tonight...A mix of snow...sleet...rain...and freezing rain in the evening... Then snow...sleet and freezing rain after midnight. Blowing and drifting snow after midnight. Breezy. Snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 9 inches. Ice accumulation up to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday...Cloudy. Areas of blowing and drifting snow in the morning. Snow likely in the morning...then scattered flurries in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snow 70 percent.

Tippecanoe

Tonight...Breezy. Snow and rain...then snow after midnight. Areas of blowing snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 5 to 6 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Friday...Breezy. Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow until midday. Areas of blowing snow until midday. Nearly steady temperatures in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

LOL. One has a huge range (3-10 inches), the other a tiny range (5-6 inches).

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Definitely looks like LAF is in the zone for this one ... FINALLY! :snowman: But looking at the NAM and GFS both show ICE ..25" to .50" across the donut counties here..:thumbsdown:

Not for the faint of heart. Here's the zone forecasts for White County (IWX) and here in Tippecanoe County (IND)...White Co being the county just to the north of here.

White

Tonight...A mix of snow...sleet...rain...and freezing rain in the evening... Then snow...sleet and freezing rain after midnight. Blowing and drifting snow after midnight. Breezy. Snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 9 inches. Ice accumulation up to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday...Cloudy. Areas of blowing and drifting snow in the morning. Snow likely in the morning...then scattered flurries in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snow 70 percent.

Tippecanoe

Tonight...Breezy. Snow and rain...then snow after midnight. Areas of blowing snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 5 to 6 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Friday...Breezy. Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow until midday. Areas of blowing snow until midday. Nearly steady temperatures in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

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