March 2011 general obs/discussion thread

[cmichweather]

Don't be surprised if that changes in the coming days. As mentioned in the storm thread models are starting to suggest that the tropical forcing/MJO gets into a much more favorable position ( winter storms/colder )for us going into March and or later next week. Phase 6/7 onward.

Either way it is gonna be hard at best to do again what was done last March and the one before. Trace or less of snowfall here. Add in a Nina and well odd's strongly favor below normal temps and above normal snows. I'll go as far to say that i think the odds are high that we see a another snow bomb in the region ( se of La Crosse and west of the apps ) this month.

Purely MJO argument would say that the day 6-7 storm would be firmly in phase 6 which usually has cutters west of the lakes similar to the gfs. That north south boundary is going to be hard to displace with the trough anchored off the western coast into the gulf of Alaska. Later down the road we'll have to see how the west evolves.

[Stebo]

lol, you gotta remember our Marches are heavily frontloaded historically. If the snow doesn't pile up by the 12th or so, it's mostly hit or miss scraps from that point into April. So, based on the way the models look, YOUZE IS SCREWED.

Psh was double or nothing so I break even either way

[cmichweather]

Psh was double or nothing so I break even either way

Just wait til that extreme defo band creeps over you in 3 days and you get 13 inches in 7 hours

[Stebo]

Just wait til that extreme defo band creeps over you in 3 days and you get 13 inches in 7 hours

As long as Toronto gets it too, I'll be happy

[Harry]

Purely MJO argument would say that the day 6-7 storm would be firmly in phase 6 which usually has cutters west of the lakes similar to the gfs. That north south boundary is going to be hard to displace with the trough anchored off the western coast into the gulf of Alaska. Later down the road we'll have to see how the west evolves.

Here is the forecast. Not much time in 6 and better odd's phase 7.

Whoops.. Forgot about bmo and well per this it would come out into phase 8.

Ofcourse this is March so slightly different outcome vs say Dec-Jan etc.

Anyways that kind of forcing would most likely change up the Pacific as it typically does. Thus i would not get comfortable with that Pacific look we have.

[cmichweather]

Here is the forecast. Not much time in 6 and better odd's phase 7.

Whoops.. Forgot about bmo and well per this it would come out into phase 8.

Ofcourse this is March so slightly different outcome vs say Dec-Jan etc.

Anyways that kind of forcing would most likely change up the Pacific as it typically does. Thus i would not get comfortable with that Pacific look we have.

fair enough long range mjo i usually use the gefs ensemble but ya i didn't check the bmo still the effects you are talking about are outside of the day 5-7 pattern. I get what you are saying about the pacific pattern just I don't see it occuring in time for the day 6/7 event, days 10-15 sure but no forecasts has it leaving the CoD until after this storm is occuring (Mar. 3rd or so) so minimal forcing will be going on. I'm more in the opinion that we have several S/Ws eject across the semi zonal pattern until finally the LW pattern shifts east and that trough pushes east which could bring a big storm the 2nd week of march.

[Harry]

fair enough long range mjo i usually use the gefs ensemble but ya i didn't check the bmo still the effects you are talking about are outside of the day 5-7 pattern. I get what you are saying about the pacific pattern just I don't see it occuring in time for the day 6/7 event, days 10-15 sure but no forecasts has it leaving the CoD until after this storm is occuring (Mar. 3rd or so) so minimal forcing will be going on. I'm more in the opinion that we have several S/Ws eject across the semi zonal pattern until finally the LW pattern shifts east and that trough pushes east which could bring a big storm the 2nd week of march.

Personally i wont try to argue a day 6-7 threat. Plus as mentioned too many other things can override this signal.

I know many out that way look forward to Spring especially in April but i think many out that way get blasted and blasted good this April. Perhaps starting in late March? Tough call with this but most of what i looked at a few months back did suggest it. Basically the same stuff that said that after the big MN special in Dec that we would not see many systems going that far nw ( not clippers ) for a good while which has worked out well. So that i still feel pretty good about. The blocking stuff posted did cause some doubt but as i figured would be the case it did not do what a few thought and thus it did not revert back to the Dec pattern this month. That rarely happens in a Nina but during a nino sure as we saw last winter. March would offer the best chance of that happening during a nina atleast. Thus keep a eye out. Could play havoc for all ( even in this area ) going into April and thus just not up your way.

There is a shot or two though as you say and the day 6-7 threat would be one but i believe it will become much harder to do beyond that till late in the month anyways. We'll see i suppose. Being we will be getting into Spring your odd's go up anyways so that is really on your side as well.

[Chicago WX]

I'm normally ready for spring once March hits but looks like I might need to make an exception this time. I would like to get to 50"...however, the second we reach that (if we do) I will be in full spring mode.

We're obviously very close so I'd like to see it happen. But we'll have to see if we get "LAF'ed" and come up just short...something like 49.9". My "prediction" was tongue and cheek, as I believe we'll see something wintry in March...odds are we do.

[daddylonglegs]

GFS looks so cold during early March. I have a feeling that we flip and turn really warm mid month? Maybe a replay of Feb?

[daddylonglegs]

Canadian is turning cold too

No 2010 replay

[TugHillMatt]

Yup, the GFS has my area getting no warmer than 36 through Mid March with the temp. below freezing most of the time. It even increases the chance of snow by next week.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmkg

P.S. Hi "Irish Coffee"!

[Stevo6899]

What exactly is the gfs showing on the 12z around 150-180 hours? a overunning event? Cold front?

[Organizing Low]

oh man i would give a couple of smaller toes to see the 12z GFS verify with that event next week

[Organizing Low]

What exactly is the gfs showing on the 12z around 150-180 hours? a overunning event? Cold front?

stalled out baroclinc zone.....with overrunnning.

[River Card]

I too will concede that this spring looks anything but spring despite the fact there is no blocking. Yeah there will be spikes here and there but no reason to think, with nina firmly in play that this will be anything but a damp and cool spring from commencement to close. Just hope the farmers catch a break and get in the fields but i have my doubts this year. Keep the fingers crossed.

Here is a detailed spring forecast by a very solid met outta KSTL. Although it's for their area, it kinda gives you an idea as to what might be in store. Here is the link.

http://www.fox2now.com/news/ktvi-dave-murray-2011-spring-forecast-022411,0,2814654.story

[daddylonglegs]

Look like a good 3-6 inches here for LSE next week

Temps right now look cold enough for snow as of right now.

[mnweather]

^GGEM looks bullish for the upper midwest next thurs/fri as well. 0Z Euro was dry though.

[Stevo6899]

flint getting destroyed today

[snowstormcanuck]

oh man i would give a couple of smaller toes to see the 12z GFS verify with that event next week

Per BUFKIT here: 2" of snow, rain, 1/4 inch of ice, 8" of snow. Ah, spring.

[Organizing Low]

Per BUFKIT here: 2" of snow, rain, 1/4 inch of ice, 8" of snow. Ah, spring.

well it looks like both the euro and GFS are signalling some sort of large qpf event towards next weekend or so.

euro is warm and wet,

but since the torch, everything has trended further SE and colder, so will have to watch given the amount of qpf and a possible stalled BZ + low.

[River Card]

This is from Don Sutherland to me and some of his thoughts for spring. Thought I would share them.

• Report
• Reply
• Edit

[/url]

donsutherland1

• 
• 

• 
• 

Posts:

613

Joined:

November 11, 2010

Location

41°F

Calm

Sent 22 February 2011 - 02:43 PM

My early thinking is that March will be cooler than normal in the Chicago area and April will be warmer than normal. The first 14-20 days of March could see the coldest anomalies (most persistent during the first two weeks, but a strong cold shot possible somewhat afterward). The closing 10-14 days could see spring assert itself. Precipitation may be below normal during both months.

[IWXwx]

I just returned from a 2 day workshop, "Weather for Emergency Managers" conducted by the Indiana Dept. of Homeland Security. It was cool and I learned a lot. Three mets, two with a combined 40 years experience with NWS, conducted the workshop. I asked one of them his thoughts for spring and his reply was, "Just think 1974". I'm pumped!

I could tell lots of stories, but one of the cool ones didn't involve meteorology. We were eating at a Texas Roadhouse in Columbus, IN and had Tony Stewart sitting right beside me. He was home between racing at Daytona and Phoenix.

[Hoosier]

I just returned from a 2 day workshop, "Weather for Emergency Managers" conducted by the Indiana Dept. of Homeland Security. It was cool and I learned a lot. Three mets, two with a combined 40 years experience with NWS, conducted the workshop. I asked one of them his thoughts for spring and his reply was, "Just think 1974". I'm pumped!

I could tell lots of stories, but one of the cool ones didn't involve meteorology. We were eating at a Texas Roadhouse in Columbus, IN and had Tony Stewart sitting right beside me. He was home between racing at Daytona and Phoenix.

I'd watch the March 20-April 20 period. That is partly based on climo and also because it doesn't look like the pattern will be that favorable around here in early March.

[River Card]

What was 1974 like?

[IWXwx]

What was 1974 like?

http://en.wikipedia..../Super_Outbreak

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1974/6

[Indystorm]

I just returned from a 2 day workshop, "Weather for Emergency Managers" conducted by the Indiana Dept. of Homeland Security. It was cool and I learned a lot. Three mets, two with a combined 40 years experience with NWS, conducted the workshop. I asked one of them his thoughts for spring and his reply was, "Just think 1974". I'm pumped!

I could tell lots of stories, but one of the cool ones didn't involve meteorology. We were eating at a Texas Roadhouse in Columbus, IN and had Tony Stewart sitting right beside me. He was home between racing at Daytona and Phoenix.

Glad you had a good conference. Both 1965 and 1974 events came after LaNina winters and it is chilling to hear his comment. That is not the first I've read from some mets who have expressed some concern regarding the upcoming spring svr wx season. River Card's question about 1974 does remind me of how old I am.

[IWXwx]

Glad you had a good conference. Both 1965 and 1974 events came after LaNina winters and it is chilling to hear his comment. That is not the first I've read from some mets who have expressed some concern regarding the upcoming spring svr wx season. River Card's question about 1974 does remind me of how old I am.

I concur.

I also added a second link outlining the 194 tornadoes that hit the US in June of '74.

[Tropical]

Spring will come. It always does.

[River Card]

http://en.wikipedia..../Super_Outbreak

http://www.tornadohi.../tornado/1974/6

Wow who can forget the Xenia tornado, wow that year was wicked. America's heartland got racked big time. I guess that year really featured a persistent clash of air masses. Was a lot of thaeez t due to the northern branch of the jet not going as north as usual or just a perfect setup for repeated severe outbreaks.

Thanks for the links, geez I might go chasing if this year turns into something like 74.

[River Card]

Spring will come. It always does.

Indeed but man the gfs has been trending colder and although it's the 18z run, the period from the 9th to the 13th looks brutal....it may be overdone some, but the numbers it's tossing around mimmick more Jan/Feb than almost mid march.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/