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March 2011 general obs/discussion thread


snowstormcanuck

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Now the Euro indicates this potential with a rather large cold pool pressing in by D8 across the MW/Gl/OV/NE

DET, for example:

TUE 18Z 22-MAR   1.5 	0.4    1016      84      94    0.29 	560 	547    
WED 00Z 23-MAR  -0.3    -0.3    1016      75      97    0.24 	559 	547    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -0.9    -2.7    1012      82 	100    0.19 	556 	547    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -4.0    -2.4    1011      85      71    0.23 	549 	541    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -3.8    -5.4    1013      78      83    0.05 	546 	535    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -4.3    -9.6    1019      77      91    0.05 	547 	532   

I just want a chance to kiss the snow goodbye. :cry:

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Brrrr..

ecmwf_850_temp_168.gif

HPC

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

323 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2011

VALID 12Z MON MAR 21 2011 - 12Z THU MAR 24 2011

USED THE 00Z/17 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A RUN OF

ROBUST CONTINUITY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...AND HAS

CORRELATED WELL WITH THE GEFS MEANS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. FOR THIS

PARTICULAR FORECAST...THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS ALSO WELL

MATCHED WITH THE LATEST GFS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN

THE PERIOD. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS ESPECIALLY

WELCOME LATE DAY 6 THROUGH DAY 7 OVER THE EAST...WHERE A LATE

SEASON COLD OUTBREAK MAY SPELL WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS

A POTENT WAVE ROLLS UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST. EVEN WITH THE FLOW OVER THE EAST GOING BLOCKY...THE WEST

WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE WOODS...WITH THE STRONG PACIFIC JET SIMPLY

DIRECTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AND FOUR CORNERS

REGION.

CISCO

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Temps have been a bit more sluggish than I expected today, but we probably haven't seen our highs yet, as a 50-60 knot LLJ is expected to develop over the next few hours. That should improve our mixing. That will probably also be when we start to really see any shower/t'storm activity pop off.

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Up to 73 here on a gusty south wind. :sun:

KBTL showed 68 at the last update about a hour ago while most other stations like Kalamazoo is 70+ with Marshall at 70 and Kalamazoo at 71. The record high here is 71 for today. Gonna be close

I was doing some peaking at the normal/Records temps here for this date and then decided to go peak at DCA. Normal high/low here for today is 46/26 and DCA the lowest temp all winter is 27! The coldest daytime high is 42. The normal goes up to 46 on Feb 12th! Thus at this point we are right at what would be typically the coldest part of Winter in DC. sheesh..

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This may very well come back to bite you in the ass easily given what models are possibly indicating.

Easy fix. I simply go into the garage and put it back outside. Not to mention the sun removes it lol Kab..We see this every March. Snow on the models in med-range only going back to liquid as it gets closer. We shall see.

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Easy fix. I simply go into the garage and put it back outside. Not to mention the sun removes it lol Kab..We see this every March. Snow on the models in med-range only going back to liquid as it gets closer. We shall see.

My point was that too many times people declare snow to be done with for the season when it can come back quickly...whether it's less than an inch or more.

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I don't think next week gets that cold. +AO and neutral NAO. Models overdoing it now. And check this out.

ensplume_full.gif

combined_image.png

Helllllllooooo WARM PHASES.

Couple of things.

1.

combphase_noCFSsmall.gif

2.

bmo.mjo.latest.png

3. As seing how we are approaching April we should be using FMA

Thus this

combined_image.png

Lastly you don't need a -AO to get cold either. Last March ( even April ) actually had a -AO and -NAO. We all know how that worked out too. On the flip side March/April 1982 had a decent +ao/+nao. I need not say how cold that was in this region especially March into Mid April.

In short there is other ways of getting cold or warmth.

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