Chicago WX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Havent been on much lately and maybe it was mentioned but are the models run times going to stay the same or will they eventually be moved back to original times after moving an hour forward this weekend? Was that done everywhere in the U.S. Models will be an hour later, versus fall and winter, now with the time change. Sucks for those staying up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Models will be an hour later, versus fall and winter, now with the time change. Sucks for those staying up for the Euro. Won't be me haha. I am not really into severe weather. Something about destructive winds, hail and tornadoes destroying houses and killing people doesn't turn me on. Now If I was chasing in the middle of nowhere thats a different story. There's not much open land in my area and obviously not in the ideal severe weather spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Hilarious to watch the TV mets in STL fumbling this one again. A couple of them obviously gun-shy after the series of debacles in February. One of them was mistaking bright banding for heavy rain . Don't get me wrong, it was a tough forecast to make, but I think a couple of them committed to a mostly or all-rain event way too early and ended up dying by the models when the observations were clearly showing some stronger diabatic effects from precip and melting last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Hilarious to watch the TV mets in STL fumbling this one again. A couple of them obviously gun-shy after the series of debacles in February. One of them was mistaking bright banding for heavy rain . Don't get me wrong, it was a tough forecast to make, but I think a couple of them committed to a mostly or all-rain event way too early and ended up dying by the models when the observations were clearly showing some stronger diabatic effects from precip and melting last night. I read some AFDs/forecasts from MO yesterday that weren't so stellar either. I guess mid-March snows are tricky, but yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Classic early-spring snow island effect going on right now over metro STL. Thin band of moderate precip holding temps just above freezing with melting ongoing over the southern portion of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 We had our first 1+ snow on Thursday since January two days later we were in the middle 60's Now more rain on Tuesday then we really start to crank to 70 by the end of the week. Call me stupid but I think old man winter has one more small trick up his sleeve late March-early April especially north of I 70. LA NINA! Did anyone read the article about the increased possibility of a midwest quake in the next two weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Yeah, their highest record daily snowfall, of any month, is 12.1" set back on March 24, 1912. March also has 4 days with 10"+ daily records, the most of any month (Dec has 2, Jan and Feb 3). 10th snowiest season of all time for STL is 1889/90 with 32.5"...so they need 2.9" to get 2010-11 into the top 10. Wow...Detroit averages about 2 feet more than St Louis, but in many recent winters the difference has been even more dramatic (in Detroits favor). So Im wondering how on earth St Louis got 32.5" in 1889-90!??? That was Detroits 3rd warmest winter on record and at 15.8" the 6th least snowy winter on record. Crazy how the weather works sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 12z GFS says build a boat. Very warm spring rain early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Does the euro show the same deluge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I can only see the temps. 44F here with full sun. Gorgeous out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Given the endless praises of this winter (and it obviously featured the amazing storm IMBY on Feb. 1-2), I feel it necessary to point out that ORD has only seen about 3" of snow (coming in little bits and pieces) since Feb. 9. The snow was never more than an inch deep during this entire period, and it was never on the ground for more than one day. Normal from Feb. 9 until the end of the season is about 16". Not complaining...just the facts. I know this phrase probably gets overused...but outside of the Feb. 1-2 storm ( ), I'd grade the winter as a D. No extremely cold arctic airmasses, plus the aforementioned lack of snow since Feb. 9, contribute to this grade. Not expecting a rebuttal, as I know this isn't welcome commentary... Looking forward to 60+ temps later this week...should be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 La Crosse mentions this: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THEN CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NEW 14.12Z ECMWF LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I didn't even know about this event lol 0416 PM SNOW COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.33W 03/14/2011 M7.7 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY...WITH BIG FLAKES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 DVN talking highs in the low 70's for thursday and saturday THURSDAY...12Z RUNS HAVE SLOWED WITH INCOMING SFC FRONT WITH WEAKER UPPER WAVE PUSH AND GETTING ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER EAST-SOUTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. FEATURE MAY NOW NOT LOOK TO BI-SECT THE CWA FROM NE-TO-SW UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT IF LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THEIR WAY. THUS PREFER THE NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF OF SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF ST PATRICK/S DAY THU BEING DRY AND IN THE MIXING WARM SECTOR. EXTENT OF LLVL THERMAL RIDGE GETTING DRAWN UP ACRS THE REGION SUGGESTS STILL A GOOD CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND WEST OF THE MS RVR. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER THU EVENING. WILL GO SCTRD SHOWER CHANCE CWA-WIDE THU NIGHT WITH FROPA SAGGING THROUGH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STRENGTH OR IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF ANY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED/SLOWED BOUNDARY WILL BE A BIG PLAYER FOR FRIDAY/S WEATHER. THE NEW ECMWF SEEMS TO ACCURATELY DEVELOP SUCH A FEATURE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MAY SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE DAY. WILL EXPAND LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS BUT AM LEARY OF SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES IN HANDLING THIS SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THE GFS DEFINITELY SEEMS FEEDBACK REVVED UP WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCES A DEF ZONE SNOW STORM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL THROW THIS SOLUTION OUT FOR NOW. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH EXPECTED UPPER MS RVR VALLEY RIDGING EDGING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE CAA AND WEAK MIXING REGIME...SOME SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BOOST SAT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER IN ESTABLISHING A L/W TROF ACRS THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...THUS AN ASSOCIATED DELAY WITH ANY A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING OUT IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES MAY MEAN A DRY SAT NIGHT AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL TREND BACK THE SAT NIGHT POPS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LLVL WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Given the endless praises of this winter (and it obviously featured the amazing storm IMBY on Feb. 1-2), I feel it necessary to point out that ORD has only seen about 3" of snow (coming in little bits and pieces) since Feb. 9. The snow was never more than an inch deep during this entire period, and it was never on the ground for more than one day. Normal from Feb. 9 until the end of the season is about 16". Not complaining...just the facts. I know this phrase probably gets overused...but outside of the Feb. 1-2 storm ( ), I'd grade the winter as a D. No extremely cold arctic airmasses, plus the aforementioned lack of snow since Feb. 9, contribute to this grade. Not expecting a rebuttal, as I know this isn't welcome commentary... Looking forward to 60+ temps later this week...should be nice! I know this was just a general statement, but I know Ive been one of the leaders of what has grown into quite a large pack who are praising this winter, so I figured I would lament at a little bit of irony. In stark contrast to ORD's 3", we have seen plenty of snow in that timeframe (DTW has seen 24.4" since feb 9th). DTW has also outsnowed ORD this winter by 67.5" to 57.0", as well as having a good 2 weeks more of snowcover. Basically in every aspect but one Detroit has had a better winter than Chicago. And that one aspect? The Feb 1st storm (ORD had 20.2" to DTWs 10.3"). The lack of an epic storm in SE MI is the only thing preventing most of my fellow SE MI posters from giving what has been an outstanding winter an A+ (like me), rather than giving it the A- or B+ that they are. Chicago got that epic storm, and even if you take away that storm, ORD STILL had 37 inches of additonal snow (which is right around climo) and below normal temps. Before Detroit was inundated with snow from Feb 1st onward, many SE MI posters (myself excluded) were giving the winter a very poor grade, C or worse, despite having slightly above normal snowfall and well above normal snowcover at the time. Basically, my point is this: everyone has their own opinions and thats TOTALLY cool, Im definitely not knocking that AT ALL. But the recent stretch of great winters weve had in the midwest has really opened my eyes to how hard MOST (certainly not all) are wrt grading. When an area gets a near-climo snow winter, many posters in that region will be giving it a grade of C-, D, etc..and you will hear "worst winter ever" being used frequently.I shudder to think what would happen if we really DID have one of the worst winters ever (ala 1948-49 or something). It takes a near epic winter to earn a good grade from many and it takes the "Day After Tomorrow" for most to give an A+. Now...thats here in the weather community. The general public is the opposite, and thats ten times WORSE. No matter if its a harsh or easy winter, every time it snows they overreact as if they live in the middle of the snowiest place ever, the media hypes things, people are complaining everywhere...though you will always find fellow snowlovers in the general public, overall its NOT a pretty picture. In snowy winters like this, its even worse. Bottom line: When it comes to winter, whatever your stance may be (love it or hate it), it is a definite minority that are actually happy with the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Given the endless praises of this winter (and it obviously featured the amazing storm IMBY on Feb. 1-2), I feel it necessary to point out that ORD has only seen about 3" of snow (coming in little bits and pieces) since Feb. 9. The snow was never more than an inch deep during this entire period, and it was never on the ground for more than one day. Normal from Feb. 9 until the end of the season is about 16". Not complaining...just the facts. I know this phrase probably gets overused...but outside of the Feb. 1-2 storm ( ), I'd grade the winter as a D. No extremely cold arctic airmasses, plus the aforementioned lack of snow since Feb. 9, contribute to this grade. Not expecting a rebuttal, as I know this isn't welcome commentary... Looking forward to 60+ temps later this week...should be nice! I posted some similar thoughts a few days ago. However, even outside of the blizzard I still would have given the winter a solid B. We took a direct hit from the early Dec super clipper, and had several days in the -teens. We also had deep snow cover on the ground for much of the winter. The only disappointing thing here was the abrupt end to the winter after the blizzard. The last time we had an inch of snow or more was now over 40 days ago. Like I said yesterday, I still give this winter a solid A+. Sort of bizarre to see areas well to our south picking up several inches of snow today, while we basked in temps pushing 50 lol. Gotta love March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Given the endless praises of this winter (and it obviously featured the amazing storm IMBY on Feb. 1-2), I feel it necessary to point out that ORD has only seen about 3" of snow (coming in little bits and pieces) since Feb. 9. The snow was never more than an inch deep during this entire period, and it was never on the ground for more than one day. Normal from Feb. 9 until the end of the season is about 16". Not complaining...just the facts. I know this phrase probably gets overused...but outside of the Feb. 1-2 storm ( ), I'd grade the winter as a D. No extremely cold arctic airmasses, plus the aforementioned lack of snow since Feb. 9, contribute to this grade. Not expecting a rebuttal, as I know this isn't welcome commentary... Looking forward to 60+ temps later this week...should be nice! I look at it as sort of evening things out. You don't see a 20+ storm too often and I imagine you don't see 3" since Feb 9 very much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I look at it as sort of evening things out. You don't see a 20+ storm too often and I imagine you don't see 3" since Feb 9 very much either. True. I remember the feeling after the blizzard had hit that we cashed in all the good karma we had been building up for a long period of time. Of course that makes absolutely no sense meteorologically, but you can't help get the feeling that your luck won't be as good for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Some impressive totals from the LSX CWA. 0505 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSE FULTON 38.83N 91.94W03/14/2011 M9.1 INCH CALLAWAY MO TRAINED SPOTTER 0427 PM SNOW RHINELAND 38.72N 91.52W 03/14/2011 M6.8 INCH MONTGOMERY MO TRAINED SPOTTER 0443 PM SNOW FULTON 38.85N 91.95W 03/14/2011 M9.0 INCH CALLAWAY MO COCORAHS 0416 PM SNOW COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.33W 03/14/2011 M7.7 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER 0408 PM SNOW 3 W JEFFERSON CITY 38.58N 92.25W 03/14/2011 M6.0 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Some impressive totals from the LSX CWA. People further south getting better snow totals in March than I received in DJF is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 As someone had eluded to a few pages back about one spot in Iowa seeing 31 inches and then an hour or so away another spot at nearly 60 inches. Actually, you minus the blizzard out and a similiar situation occurs at ORD with a lackluster season scraping out 30 inches while the peorias of the world got 52 inches. The old adadge of location location location. Yes the winter was cold but never, other than maybe 3 or 4 nights was it out right frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 18z really breaking out the spring pattern on consistency over the next 16 days, looks very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Winter's back has been broken. There continue to be these blocking signals showing up on both the EURO and GFS, but it's just too late in the season for modest blocking to lock in place an airmass that's sufficiently cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Denial. And stupidity. Know your climo. December 2010 Total snowfall: 16.2" (avg: 8.7") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 10 (avg: 7.1) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 4 (avg: 2.6) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 3 (avg: 1.4) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 1 (avg: 0.3) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 27 January 2011 Total snowfall: 11.1" (avg: 11.3") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 11 (avg: 6.6) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 2 (avg: 2.8) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 1 (avg: 1.5) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 1 (avg: 0.3) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 19 February 2011 Total snowfall: 29.0" (avg: 8.3") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 9 (avg: 6.6) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 5 (avg: 2.8) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 4 (avg: 1.5) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 2 (avg: 0.3) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 19 Total DJF 2010-11 Total snowfall: 56.3" (avg: 28.3") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 30 (avg: 20.3) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 11 (avg: 8.2) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 8 (avg: 4.3) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 4 (avg: 0.9) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 65 (avg: 44) All stats from ORD (avg. based off 1971-00 normals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Denial. And stupidity. Know your climo. December 2010 Total snowfall: 16.2" (avg: 8.7") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 10 (avg: 7.1) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 4 (avg: 2.6) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 3 (avg: 1.4) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 1 (avg: 0.3) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 27 January 2011 Total snowfall: 11.1" (avg: 11.3") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 11 (avg: 6.6) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 2 (avg: 2.8) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 1 (avg: 1.5) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 1 (avg: 0.3) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 19 February 2011 Total snowfall: 29.0" (avg: 8.3") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 9 (avg: 6.6) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 5 (avg: 2.8) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 4 (avg: 1.5) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 2 (avg: 0.3) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 19 Total DJF 2010-11 Total snowfall: 56.3" (avg: 28.3") Days with 0.1" or more snowfall: 30 (avg: 20.3) Days with 1.0" or more snowfall: 11 (avg: 8.2) Days with 2.0" or more snowfall: 8 (avg: 4.3) Days with 5.0" or more snowfall: 4 (avg: 0.9) Days with 1.0" or more snow depth: 65 (avg: 44) All stats from ORD (avg. based off 1971-00 normals) Thanks for the thinly veiled reference...it's neither denial nor stupidity. I have a met degree from NIU...not that it matters too much, but I thought it might give me at least a bit of credibility. What's wrong with lamenting the end of winter and sharing the end of another winter season with folks on a board who love winter weather? I wouldn't expect others from the general public to feel the same way...but I figured it would make sense on a wx board. No big deal...let's just have a beer and toast to the winter that was. Truce. Have you ever enjoyed something so much that you lament its passing? it's hard to convey these thoughts over the internet...but that's all it is. It's like going to your favorite local establishment and reminiscing about the 2005 White Sox, or 1985 Bears, etc. I like celebrating thae fact that we're the unique souls who enjoy arctic weather, as opposed to the 70s/80s and sunshine that most peope love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Thanks for the thinly veiled reference...it's neither denial nor stupidity. I have a met degree...not that it matters too much, but I wanted to put it out there. What's wrong with lamenting the end of winter and sharing the end of another einter season with folks on a board who love winter weather? I wouldn't expect others from the general public to feel the same way...but I figured it would make sense on a wx board. No big deal...let's just have a beer and toast to the winter that was. Truce. Have you ever enjoyed something so much that you lament its passing? it's hard to convey these thoughts over the internet...but that's all it is. It's like going to your favorite local establishment and reminiscing about the 2005 White Sox, or 1985 Bears, etc. I like celebrating thae fact that we're the unique souls who enjoy arctic weather, as opposed to the 70s/80s and sunshine that most peope love. Nope not intended for or at you. It was a vague reference, so my apologies if you felt targeted. I respect your opinion on how you feel what winter should be like FYI. To each his own. Now how about that beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Nope not intended for or at you. It was a vague reference, so my apologies if you felt targeted. I respect your opinion on how you feel what winter should be like FYI. To each his own. Now how about that beer? Yep...cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 its looking like if we are gonna get a snowsatorm in the next 14 days it is gonna have to be surprise. I am really worried about the minnesota and mississippi rivers if the pattern plays out as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 It'll be interesting to see if we have our first thunderstorm(s) of the season with Friday's system. NAM and GFS shows dewpoints getting in the low-mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Monday, March 14th: Hi: 45F Lo: 26F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 11MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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