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March 2011 general obs/discussion thread

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Central/Western States

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

For sh*t's and gigs...12z Euro says tornadoes in eastern KS next saturday with dew points >60 and CAPE values >2000 J/kg coupled with very nice looking wind profiles/curved hodo's

Emporia area on the soundings looks sweet. Way too early obviously but something to watch given a possible trof in the west this coming weekend.

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TheWeatherPimp

TheWeatherPimp

Posted
Posted

For sh*t's and gigs...12z Euro says tornadoes in eastern KS next saturday with dew points >60 and CAPE values >2000 J/kg coupled with very nice looking wind profiles/curved hodo's

Emporia area on the soundings looks sweet. Way too early obviously but something to watch given a possible trof in the west this coming weekend.

The overall pattern from the 19th through about the 27th looks very favorable for several severe weather episodes with abundant moisture return and nice surface heating across a large portion of the Middle United States.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

For sh*t's and gigs...12z Euro says tornadoes in eastern KS next saturday with dew points >60 and CAPE values >2000 J/kg coupled with very nice looking wind profiles/curved hodo's

Emporia area on the soundings looks sweet. Way too early obviously but something to watch given a possible trof in the west this coming weekend.

The overall pattern from the 19th through about the 27th looks very favorable for several severe weather episodes with abundant moisture return and nice surface heating across a large portion of the Middle United States.

The GEFS looks much closer to the Euro/Euro Ens. as well--the GFS op is a massive outlier with that elongated an positive tilt trough over the eastern Pac.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Winter 2010-2011 Summary up to 3/12/11

November:

November was pretty benign around here with only trace amount of snowfall. Expectations aren’t high for November, so no big deal.

December:

The Largest Storm to impact Metro Detroit occurred on December 12. This storm looked promising on the models for quite a few days as a possible significant snowstorm. However, 2-3 days prior to the storm, the models showed a more northerly track, severely limiting any possible accumulating snowfall. However, the models gradually shifted south, focusing on a track of a strong low pressure from IA to Northern IL. The unexpected aspect about this storm system was the development of a secondary area of low pressure that formed and deepened as it moved NE over Lake Erie during the day. The storm began with a period of rain, but in the early morning hours of the 12th, the rain quickly changed to snow as temperatures hovered around freezing throughout the day. The snow, given the wet ground and low ratios didn’t accumulate well. However, moderate to heavy wet snow within the deformation axis set up the entire morning and afternoon across Metro Detroit. As the afternoon wore on, the snowfall ratios increased, as temperatures began to plummet as cold air was drawn in on the backside of the low pressure. The result was a rapid flash freezing that severely impacted travel conditions that evening and the next day. In total, Metro Detroit’s first widespread snowstorm produced 4-7” of snow, with the highest amounts observed over Wayne County.

The rest of December was by and large fairly uneventful as the most active storm track set up from MN to IL to OH. However, Metro Detroit experienced a white Christmas with snow depths ranging from 3-6” across the area.

January:

New Years brought a thaw as temperatures soared into the 50s across Metro Detroit, resulting in a complete loss in the snow pack. The barren ground that resulted proved to be temporary as Metro Detroit was about to be blanked with growing snowpack throughout most of January and into February. January 6-7 brought a couple rounds of Lake Effect snow, resulting in widespread 2-4” 2-day snowfall totals across the area, which happened to be Metro Detroit’s most significant Lake Effect snowfall of the season. A few days later, a new storm was on the Horizon that was modeled for days to miss SE MI predominately to the south. However, within a few days of the event, modeled began to hone in a more northerly track. This resulted in a Winter Weather Advisory throughout Metro Detroit, with snowfall totals of 3-5”

The next couple weeks proved to be rather uneventful for any decent snowfall. However, in the early morning hours of 1/29 a clipper system moved SE through MI resulting in widespread 2-4”, with the highest totals in an axis from Grosse Point northwestward through central Lower Michigan.

February:

Perhaps the most exciting event of the season for many was the infamous Groundhog’s Blizzard, though results fell short of expectations. This storm for days on computer models showed a substantial amount of snowfall over SE MI, with computer model QPF amounts of upwards of 1.8.” Perhaps many of you may recall the ECMWF for several runs consecutively indicating QPF amounts of 1.4-1.8”, which would have made for a historic snowstorm in Metro Detroit, ranking among the top ten. Perhaps many may recall NAM BUFKIT amounts showing unrealistically upwards of 26” of snow for Detroit. In any case, confidence was above normal of a high-impact winter storm to impact SE MI. What resulted was a Winter Storm Watch on the morning of 1/30, an unusual early issuance for a watch, not seen since the Blizzard of ’99. Several concerns loomed over the storm that could thwart historical snowfall amounts. Track and strength of the SLP was key for such an event. Earlier computer model runs indicated a slightly weaker SLP to track near the OH River…such a track put Detroit in the “bullseye” for the impending deformation band. However, within 24 hours of the storm, models indicated a stronger SLP resulting in a track through central IL and northern Indiana. With such a track, Metro Detroit ran at risk of being dry slotted, and with a warm tongue aloft, above temperatures in to low to mid 20s, sleet became a serious deterrent to snowfall amounts. Another concern, regardless of exact track was the potential for strong gusty winds that could cause Blizzard conditions. As a result, on the morning of 2/1, a Blizzard Warning was issued across all of SE MI for 10-15” of snow. Such high snowfall amounts garnered days of rightfully so media hype, with local meteorologists calling for 12-18” of snowfall. Obvious, most residents were expecting an historical storm given all the hype. Unfortunately for snow-enthusiasts, the last day model changes proved correct. The evening began with widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall. By midnight, many locations in Metro Detroit had already received 3-6” of snowfall. By this time, a dryslot was becoming glaringly obvious on regional radar. Nevertheless, convective precip was able to take hold across the area resulting in periods of heavy snow, and mostly sleet, especially south of M59. Blowing and drifting from winds gusting upwards of 45mph was considerable, resulting in drifts of 1-3 feet across the area. The snow was not over yet as backside snow added an additional 1-3” of fluffy snow across the area. A disturbance associated with the Blizzard the previous night borough 1-2” across Metro Detroit. In total, 6-12” fell across the area, with DTW reporting a little over 10” altogether. Though not a total bust, the storm pales in comparison to the Blizzard conditions that paralyzed IL/WI, with Chicago in particular bearing the brunt of the Blizzard.

The next week looked like it wouldn’t feature much snowfall, however, 2/5 will be remembered as the surprise snowfall resulting from significant last-minute models changes. Friday evening’s forecast for Saturday called for partly to mostly cloudy skies, with zero mention of any snowfall as there was little model support. However, models that night began hinting at Detroit Metro area being scraped by a deformation band of 2-5” of snowfall. The morning of the 2/5 began with no winter weather advisories. However, as upstream radar indicated, Metro Detroit was in storm form much more than 1-2”. Consequently, WWAs were gradually issued and expanded NW, given a very tight gradient in snowfall amounts. Moderate to heavy snow fell across the area for a few hours resulting in total of 4-6” of snowfall over Metro Detroit.

The middle of February featured the next Winter thaw resulting in a nearly complete destruction of the snowpack.

This period of little snowfall and warmer temperatures was short lived as Metro Detroit geared up for it’s next major winter storm on 2/20 - 2/21. This storm for days looked to be a predominated rainstorm across Metro Detroit with some potential ice. The models leading up to the storm began to shift the storm southward as a blocking polar Vortex over NE Canada was shown to prevent a northward track of the low pressure. Because of this set-up, with freezing temperatures at the surface and a warm layer aloft, a possible classic ice storm was becoming a significant concern over Lower Michigan. Within 12 hours of the storm Metro Detroit remained very uncertain as to what precipitation types it would predominately see. A winter storm warning was issues for Metro Detroit for snow amounts of 1-3”, sleet and up to a quarter inch an ice. Computer models continued to waffle between snow and ice storm, particularly along and south of I94, resulting in a headache of a forecast for meteorologists. However, as the snow began falling around 2pm, at a moderate clip, and surface and upper atmospheric observations showed, snow was to become a potentially bigger issue than ice. Consequently, updated WSWs gradually called for increasing snowfall amount and decreasing ice amounts. By 7PM, Metro Detroit was socked in by Heavy convective snow resulting in a few observations at Metro Detroit Airport of thundersnow and visibilities down to 1/16 a mile. By 8PM, most locations have already seen 5-6” of snow, and bands of moderate to heavy snow continued to develop over WI/IL/WMI. This area of snowfall caused an additional 3-5” of snow to fall across to the area resulting in widespread storm totals of 8-11”. Although many places did experience some sleet occasionally mixing in, most sleet and freezing rain stayed south of I94 in Lenawee and Monroe Counties, where ice accumulations ranged form 0.25-0.5”. For many Metro Detroiters, this storm proved much worse than the Groundhog Day Blizzard, and many Universities and places of business were shut down for the day. Roads were in terrible shape the next couple of days due to areas of poor road management.

The evening of February 21 brought another round of snowfall to the area, with most snowfall confined south of I94 where 2-3” of snow fell.

A few nights later, Metro Detroit experienced a heavy burst of snowfall with reports of thunder and lightning. Snowflake sizes were exceptionally large, upward and over 1” in diameter from personal observation. In total, another 1-2” blanked Metro Detroit’s deep snowpack.

February was not done yet however as another snowstorm loomed possible for Detroit, models showed perhaps another 6-10” of snow for Detroit. However, after a couple days of many models shifting the snow axis south of the state, only to come back north, the ultimate storm track was across KY and the OH River, which only skimmed SE MI, particularly south of M59 with 1-5” of snow, with the highest amounts observed down river and on Lenawee and Monroe counties.

February ended up as being Detroit’s second snowiest February in recorded history, with an incredible 31.7”

March:

Early March featured a lot of rainfall across SE MI as the active storm track continued. However two rainstorm where subsequently followed buy a few inches of snowfall.

3/5 was a raw winter day, with periods of rainfall throughout the day, and especially the night before. Aar he day wore on, cold air pushed through the area as the low-pressure area move east of the region. However, during the evening, a mid-level deformation band of snowfall developed over SE MI resulting in periods of moderate snowfall. In total Metro Detroit over performed with another widespread 3-5” snowfall, which ironically featured no WWA.

A few days later, another rainstorm brought 0.5-1” of rainfall to the region. However, what became a significant item of interest was the development of a secondary low pressure over the Apps that was to retrograde NW towards Buffalo. Metro Detroit was on the back-edge of a deformation band of snow shown on the models to impact the area on 3/10 and 3/11. Model output ranged from little to no snow to upwards of a foot at one point. However, predominately, models were indicated a general 2-5” across the area, which turned out to be the case. Winter storm Watches were issued NE of Metro Detroit across the thumb region, and were subsequently changed to WWA’s from Macomb county and northeastward. As the night ware on, the snowfall proved to be more widespread than originally forecasted, resulting I the issuance of WWAs across the entire Metro areas. In total, yet another 3-5” of snowfall fell across the region.

Snow Cover

This winter was indeed a very snow-covered winter across Metro Detroit, with mostly location experiencing upwards of 80 days with a snow cover of 1”+. For residents who enjoy constant snow-cover, this winter should rank high in their books.

My Grade: A-

There’s nothing much I can complain about. First of all snow-cover was long-lasting this season and few were the days where there wasn't snow on the ground. IMBY, I have received 55.9” thus far, which is well above average for my location, and DTW has received 68”, the sixth snowiest winter on record at this point in time. Though I wish December was a little snowier, largely due to the persistent blocking regime, the moderate snowfall of January, the outstanding, record-setting heavy snowfall of February, and the above normal snowfall of march certainly made up for the disappointments early in the winter. Expecting all winter months to be snowy and above normal is unrealistic, though not impossible, IMO, so having a “slow” start to winter didn’t matter much to me because of all the experiences I enjoyed in the second half of winter. I won’t give this winter an A due to a couple disappointments like the Groundhogs Blizzard and a under-performing WWA in late February.

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roardog

roardog

Posted
Posted

This week should finally melt my snowcover for the first time this month. The ice on the rivers will probably break up as well especially Thursday if we can get some decent warm rain. After a long winter, the warmer temps later this week will feel nice. BTW, it snowed yesterday evening fairly hard for awhile and again covered up any bare spots on the ground. There was almost an inch worth of snow in a short period of time.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Nice to have that extra hr of darkness in the AM and extra daylight in the evening for the next 5 days of ice fishing before the torch ends getting onto the ice down here. Just raping the lakes of slab crappies right now. This is the best time of the yr before heading in to dec.. Just love it.

Bare ground like chicago has held off for a long time and looks to be about 5 days away yet to get rid of this glacier.. With the cool to cold spring coming up after the torch hopefully can make it upnorth in april for more ice fishing if my outlook plays out. Lots of ice to melt off yet but I don't think we'll be able to come close to making opening weekend of fishing season on ice unless this spring truly does turn out horrible to the north, which I think has a slim chance.. Lots more snow to come for MN and far northern WI for sure. Still feeling a good chance down here and south for a 6"+ if we can get things to line up. Only takes one storm to turn your like upside down and with a nina spring it could still avg below normal temps with one big severe outbreak.. That's why the MW rocks for weather - especially in the southern MW south of the WI border.

Love Detroit's spring outlook.. cool and feast or famine severe.. Famine should rule up here and especially to the north.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Nice to have that extra hr of darkness in the AM and extra daylight in the evening for the next 5 days of ice fishing before the torch ends getting onto the ice down here. Just raping the lakes of slab crappies right now. This is the best time of the yr before heading in to dec.. Just love it.

Bare ground like chicago has held off for a long time and looks to be about 5 days away yet to get rid of this glacier.. With the cool to cold spring coming up after the torch hopefully can make it upnorth in april for more ice fishing if my outlook plays out. Lots of ice to melt off yet but I don't think we'll be able to come close to making opening weekend of fishing season on ice unless this spring truly does turn out horrible to the north, which I think has a slim chance.. Lots more snow to come for MN and far northern WI for sure. Still feeling a good chance down here and south for a 6"+ if we can get things to line up.

Love Detroit's spring outlook.. cool and feast or famine severe.. Famine should rule up here and especially to the north.

I am thinking feast more than famine for the region.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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My untrained eyes don't see any major snow threats in the next 10 to 14 days. That takes us to the end of march. Time is running out.

lol, at your location you've still got easy another month of legit chances. For areas like where I'm at, the chances for a big snowstorm are now finished. I'm just looking for another inch or two so I can go outside, stand in it, and say goodbye.

And I'll gladly pay Stebo for that opportunity.

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ukrocks

ukrocks

Posted
Posted

A lot cooler today with temperatures sitting in the mid 40's right now. Temperatures should be fairly seasonable this afternoon with highs in the mid 50's. More rain tomorrow and temperatures only in the 40's for a high. We definitely don't need anymore rain, we could use a dry week as next week looks very active.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
Posted

teh models are showing a chance for heavy wet snow from banding with this next one.

This is a normal set up for late season 3-6 inches here that is here one morning and gone the next.

Both the RGEM and NAM show snow here in some capacity.

this is actually gonna be really close.

I can see areas along I44 in MO getting 6 inches of heavy wet snow.

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