michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I know most are sick of winter but mornings like this make me have no desire for spring. Since Feb 1st, have had 6.45" precip and 40.8" snow imby! No drought here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 here is to hoping for a nice trof out west with nice southwest mid-level flow by 19th/20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 The average high temp right now in la crosse is 42. We can call march winter and it can indeed be very wintery but to not expect and except drastic warm ups in march is as unrealistic and expecting warm and sunny everyday imo. There is a reason that the average high is up too 42 even in la crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 what are the chances of someone in the midwest getting some severe weather out of this pattern the next couple of weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Looking at that D7 system for a chance of sig snow. Right now 12z GFS is too warm, but considering the lack of wavelength between that system and the one departing, I could see it tracking further south. 0z EURO didn't show anything from what I remember. Fighting the clock big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 GFS 12z also shows a decent rain event developing in eastern parts of Central states and moving through towards the SE/Mid Atlantic states in the 4-5 day period. Will be interesting to see whether it comes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Models showing a lot of fluidity right now but that's a sweet looking -PNA/-NAO overrunning pattern by D10 on the EURO. 964 spinning over Labrador ain't gonna let nuttin' cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 ^Story of the year up here with nothing cutting. It has been pretty dry lately with the southern storm track and it doesn't look to change anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 ^Story of the year up here with nothing cutting. It has been pretty dry lately with the southern storm track and it doesn't look to change anytime soon. Checking the 0z EURO, there was some continuity, although the 12z is really going to town with that blocking. OP GFS is warmer though. Don't worry though. A blocking pattern (what the EURO is showing) is what JB is predicting for the end of March. So the chances of it verifying are next to nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Checking the 0z EURO, there was some continuity, although the 12z is really going to town with that blocking. OP GFS is warmer though. Don't worry though. A blocking pattern (what the EURO is showing) is what JB is predicting for the end of March. So the chances of it verifying are next to nil. Yes! What exactly is a blocking pattern? I am new to some of this stuff. Is it a permanent area of high pressure that moves around in Canada that forces a further south storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Today in Southeast Michigan Weather History...On March 11, 1946, the last snowfall of the 1946 season was recorded in Detroit and stands as the earliest date for the last snowfall in spring. The beginning of the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Spring Outlook from DTX http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/Spring%202011%20Outlook%20for%20Southeast%20Lower%20Michigan.pdf Cool, normal to a bit above normal precip, and "feast or famine" in terms of severe weather. Bill Deedler also mentions at the end of the outlook that this will be his last outlook and that he is retiring from the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Yes! What exactly is a blocking pattern? I am new to some of this stuff. Is it a permanent area of high pressure that moves around in Canada that forces a further south storm track? blocking just means that the upper atmosphere becomes so amplified that various troughs and ridges are nearly stationary. Generally the "block" is in reference to the ridge, and the downstream troughs are considered "blocked" because of it. Not sure if a -NAO block is its own type of specific blocking or whether it fits into some of the more generalized typologies (like "rex" or "omega"). But basically the ridge over Greenland "blocks" the vortex over Atlantic Canada forcing cold air to flood the NE quadrant of the continent and forcing storms in the Plains to shear E/ESEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Spring Outlook from DTX http://www.crh.noaa....%20Michigan.pdf Cool, normal to a bit above normal precip, and "feast or famine" in terms of severe weather. Bill Deedler also mentions at the end of the outlook that this will be his last outlook and that he is retiring from the NWS. I know, do NOT want to see him retire! Best outlooks and season reviews in the business, love his past weather stories...and hes probably the only person who knows Detroits climate history better than myself. A bit of good news is that he lives in Livonia and does plan to stay active in the weather field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Models showing a lot of fluidity right now but that's a sweet looking -PNA/-NAO overrunning pattern by D10 on the EURO. Hi Mitch, would the pattern your depicting be one that keeps things mild, not warm, not cold and drier? What do you think I can expect with this pattern? I checked the ensembles and the PNA and NAO go negative, and most ensembles show the AO positive, the majority of them anyway. I know the NAO would favor the east coast for the wet weather which they don't need, but for us will it be time to get out in the yard and start working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Models showing a lot of fluidity right now but that's a sweet looking -PNA/-NAO overrunning pattern by D10 on the EURO. Hi Mitch, would the pattern your depicting be one that keeps things mild, not warm, not cold and drier? What do you think I can expect with this pattern? I checked the ensembles and the PNA and NAO go negative, and most ensembles show the AO positive, the majority of them anyway. I know the NAO would favor the east coast for the wet weather which they don't need, but for us will it be time to get out in the yard and start working? Who's Mitch? Is this directed at me? -NAO has decreasing effects as you go south and west from New England. Were it to materialize, I'd guess northern Illinois would probably be removed from the best snow/ice threat zone, but it might suppress the true springtime warmth just to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Who's Mitch? Is this directed at me? -NAO has decreasing effects as you go south and west from New England. Were it to materialize, I'd guess northern Illinois would probably be removed from the best snow/ice threat zone, but it might suppress the true springtime warmth just to your south. Good analysis Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 lol Mitch! that is a classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Made it to 52 here today. Even the once massive piles of snow are now completely gone. Absolutely no trace of snow anywhere anymore. Looks like November out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Good analysis Mitch. Thanks Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Thanks Tom! lol, I knew you'd go with Tom. I don't think I've made an actual post about weather in a week. So, 49º and sunny here today. Yippee skippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Made it to 46F here... Nice day with a lot of melting. Still plenty of piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Friday, March 11th: Hi: 47F Lo: 26F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 16MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Who's Mitch? Is this directed at me? -NAO has decreasing effects as you go south and west from New England. Were it to materialize, I'd guess northern Illinois would probably be removed from the best snow/ice threat zone, but it might suppress the true springtime warmth just to your south. Thanks Canuck, thought Mitch had posted that, old age equates to poor vision..lol, thanks for your input, the gfs also shows it cooler here overall towards the latter stages of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Today is the 20th anniversary of one of central Indiana's largest ice storms. This area was especially hard hit. Back home in Kankakee it was all snow with amounts up to a foot. 1991 A 2 DAY ICE AND SNOW STORM IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BRINGS UP TO 3 INCHES OF ICE...12 INCHES OF SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 1991 -- As northern Indiana received heavy snow, including 12" at Plymouth, central Indiana had a destructive ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Gorgeous day here in Louisville as I am home for Spring Break. Temperatures are already in the 60's. My snow chances are pretty much history for a good storm unless we get one of those once in 50 or 60 year storms. Spring fever has hit me, bring on the severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Coming up far short on temps today. Thick clouds and strong west winds blowing over the snowfields of SE MN aren't allowing the temps to go anywhere. Sitting in the mid 20F's. Was in Rochester, MN yesterday and could really tell that they had far more snow left then here in La Crosse. Euro still looks good for a chance at 60F next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Coming up far short on temps today. Thick clouds and strong west winds blowing over the snowfields of SE MN aren't allowing the temps to go anywhere. Sitting in the mid 20F's. Was in Rochester, MN yesterday and could really tell that they had far more snow left then here in La Crosse. Euro still looks good for a chance at 60F next week... I would stick with the Euro for the long--it has been leading the way and the GFS has consistently been a tad too far S with all off these Pacific waves ejecting through the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 give me a decent tornado setup in the plains next saturday and I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Winds got the best of the light pole across the street from my house about a half an hour ago. Recorded a gust here at my weather station of 46 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.