NorthNJwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 OKX Update Near term /through tonight/... at 12z a 993 hpa surface low was near kagc-klbe...with 3 hour pressure falls approaching 7 mb to its northeast. This would take the low on a track farther northwest than any model solution...with the RUC the closest to this idea. The models are likely wrong with their surface low track due to them not having enough upstream ridging (based on comparing their 500 hpa height forecast over New York/PA/NJ to RUC analysis). If this trend holds...then temperatures and winds are likely under forecast across the area...especially across the northern interior. Will continue to monitor this...especially with implications to wind headlines...and convective potential - could be more widespread - stronger than currently forecast if trends hold. In the short term...have updated hourly wind/temperature/dewpoint grids to better reflect current conditions - winds were increased a couple of hours too soon...and NE flow across the far western sound has resulted in temperatures at LGA being held in the upper 30s...while areas near the S shore of Long Island have warmed a tad faster than expected. Otherwise current forecast on track. From my perspective, this is great to hear. I did see this update a bit earlier and was glad to see it contrast with the most recent NAM/GFS runs that have the low further SE and weaker. Areas in the warm sector will get the most impressive weather today. Temps will spike, winds will shift to the S-SW and become gusty ahead of the front, and convection will be possible in these areas. The post-frontal W-NW winds, which are the focus of the wind portion of the event, have more upward potential in the areas that end up getting warm sectored first, as well. The front will still be awesome in areas that don't get into the warm sector, but best for those who get it. And my rainfall total here is up to 0.92" for the day. 0.05" also fell last night before midnight. There's still significant snowpack here, probably several inches in my yard, which will contribute to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 From my perspective, this is great to hear. I did see this update a bit earlier and was glad to see it contrast with the most recent NAM/GFS runs that have the low further SE and weaker. Areas in the warm sector will get the most impressive weather today. Temps will spike, winds will shift to the S-SW and become gusty ahead of the front, and convection will be possible in these areas. The post-frontal W-NW winds, which are the focus of the wind portion of the event, have more upward potential in the areas that end up getting warm sectored first, as well. The front will still be awesome in areas that don't get into the warm sector, but best for those who get it. And my rainfall total here is up to 0.92" for the day. 0.05" also fell last night before midnight. There's still significant snowpack here, at least several inches in my yard, which will contribute to flooding. The winds should really start picking up over the next few hours with ACY gusting to 40 mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Disagree with OKX on this. Best pressure falls are ENE of the low. Low should track near the warm front across extreme NE NJ and through LI Sound into eastern CT. OKX Update Near term /through tonight/... at 12z a 993 hpa surface low was near kagc-klbe...with 3 hour pressure falls approaching 7 mb to its northeast. This would take the low on a track farther northwest than any model solution...with the RUC the closest to this idea. The models are likely wrong with their surface low track due to them not having enough upstream ridging (based on comparing their 500 hpa height forecast over New York/PA/NJ to RUC analysis). If this trend holds...then temperatures and winds are likely under forecast across the area...especially across the northern interior. Will continue to monitor this...especially with implications to wind headlines...and convective potential - could be more widespread - stronger than currently forecast if trends hold. In the short term...have updated hourly wind/temperature/dewpoint grids to better reflect current conditions - winds were increased a couple of hours too soon...and NE flow across the far western sound has resulted in temperatures at LGA being held in the upper 30s...while areas near the S shore of Long Island have warmed a tad faster than expected. Otherwise current forecast on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The winds should really start picking up over the next few hours with ACY gusting to 40 mph now. On cue; looks like good gusts getting into JFK now. The warm front surged northward over the past hour and looks to be through the city; Newark as well. Trenton is also in the warm sector. Disagree with OKX on this. Best pressure falls are ENE of the low. Low should track near the warm front across extreme NE NJ and through LI Sound into eastern CT. I guess I'll just have to hope you're wrong. I am encouraged by the how far north the warm sector has edged already. SPC's outlooks also support a possible warm frontal passage further north, based on the scope of their outlooks. These events are always marginal in terms of getting warm sectored or not to the NW of the city. I'm hoping for a 3/8/08 type of evolution, during which my area just barely got into the warm sector to set up a squall line and powerful post-frontal winds (though areas to the N got hit hard, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It looks to me like the surface low will track right over our region in agreement with the previous poster and not well to our northwest based on the latest surface analysis. Steadier precip will cutoff sooner than I expected. Convection is really firing up over the past hour or so over central PA but most of that looks to pass to our northwest. We shall see what transpires down the road. The NWS definitly knows what they are talking about though so perhaps they are seeing something that we are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 JFK gusting to 44 mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Wind cam!!!!!!! http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/Bellmore-NY-Weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not sure what Upton is looking at. Highest pressure falls as of. 15z are actually east of Long Island and towards the offshore waters of Rhode Island. Case in point, DXR has been in the mid-30s all morning.....really should have topped 40 by now if the low was going to track overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Winds starting to pick up here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 rain ending, no wind yet. Places in Mass/NCT are getting pounded, over 1" of rain there already...big snowpack melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It looks like the low should track ENE across Northern New Jersey and SW CT as per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Euro has the low in Buffalo, right? LOL. GFS was closest with the track. Euro was incredibly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Wind sure is cranking here. I think I saw a bird break the sound barrier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Wind sure is cranking here. I think I saw a bird break the sound barrier ROFLMAO! Rain looks to have stopped here. Radar returns suggested that < 10 miles north of the GWB had a mix falling. That alone is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0.82" storm total rainfall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Temps jumped to 60 in TTN and 56 in EWR, MMU and SMQ remain in the low 40s however 0.82" storm total rainfall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 latest regional weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Gusting to 51 mph at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The winds have really picked up in the last 15 minutes or so with estimated gusts 50-60 mph here in Long Beach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not even a slight breeze here yet in Ramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Precip moved back in. Interesting radar right now seems odd and probably incorrect as this has to be all rain: http://radblast-mi.w...ning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Don't think warm front is going to make it that far North. Winds and temperature rise will occur after cold/occluded front passage up in this part of NJ. Not even a slight breeze here yet in Ramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Not even a slight breeze here yet in Ramsey I don't think it will be anything but calm in this area for the next couple hours or so.The warm front appears to be on a line from roughly Hoboken to Flemington. It actually might not even make it through this area if the low passes overhead. But this doesn't change the fact that things will get wild post-frontal here, starting maybe in the 3-4pm timeframe and peaking around 7pm. The High Wind Warning runs from 3-11pm. I think the poster above me has the right idea as well - our temps will actually spike after the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Winds aren't impressive in Brooklyn at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The radar is really filling in again, anyone who thought the main precip was over is going to be in for a suprise over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Windy as **** here in midtown 1000 ft above Lex Ave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I have wind damage here now.An earlier gust took down my neighbor's awing and the light structure that attached it to his house. I'll post some photos soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Windy as **** here in midtown 1000 ft above Lex Ave. Must be a crazy inversion over here in the city because it's not windy by me at all. I'm only 3 stories up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 this map looks about right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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