Thunderdude Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Tomorrow shapes up to be a rainy windy day, It looks like we could in for a fall like a event with any low-topped convection bringing down the strong gusty and possibly damaging winds due the surface tomorrow with temps in the upper 40's to low 50's ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NOT SUPRISING... FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1217 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>071-250630-/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0001.110225T1200Z-110226T1300Z//00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-1217 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING* TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FUTHER EXACERBATE RAPID WATER RISES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.* THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT SNOW PACK...FROZEN GROUND AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING ON URBAN AREAS ROADWAYS AND UNDERPASSES...AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM FLOODING. EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DUE TO RAIN RUNOFF.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BEALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TOFLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODINGDEVELOP.&&$$FIG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The convention that is going come around and bring the strong winds down to the surface may not have much if any in the way of lightning as we are still in the cold season. Heavy rains will assocaite with the band as well with the damaging winds will come down on the surface. This type of events happen alot in the fall but sometimes happen in the winter too. Usually when taking the enter inland track. That is what happen instead of getting classic noreaster winter storm that brings snow to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The GFS even has a pocket of surface based instability in the forecast for tomorrow over SE PA and tracks it toward NYC during the afternoon. We'll watch for thunderstorms moving NE right ahead of the cold front from mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The saving grace with this event is going to be that we torched last week. It's hard to imagine what would have happened if we still had 15"+ snowpack in all areas. Plus, that snow was loaded with water content. This is probably the first of many flood threats this season. As long as we remain in an active period, the rivers will rise and stay above normal for a long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE THAT BLOCKING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT WITHIN THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW BROADLY CONFLUENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...AND RATHER STRONG AND GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. IN PARTICULAR. WITHIN THIS REGIME A LARGE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION RAPIDLY ACCELERATES EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ...APPALACHIANS INTO ATLANTIC SEABOARD... SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS PROBABLE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM 70 TO 90 KTS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED MID/UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAKENING PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS FIRST AROUND MIDDAY...THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL BAND MAY ALLOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIDED BY A SECONDARY ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN/ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO DESTABILIZATION. IT IS NOT EVEN CLEAR THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BE MUCH ABOVE THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A THUNDER OUTLOOK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE LARGE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE CAPABLE OF CONTRIBUTING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE GUSTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGING SPEEDS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE...SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES BELOW SLIGHT RISK LEVELS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BUT...THE THREAT AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ..KERR.. 02/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE THAT BLOCKING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT WITHIN THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW BROADLY CONFLUENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...AND RATHER STRONG AND GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. IN PARTICULAR. WITHIN THIS REGIME A LARGE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION RAPIDLY ACCELERATES EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ...APPALACHIANS INTO ATLANTIC SEABOARD... SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS PROBABLE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM 70 TO 90 KTS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED MID/UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAKENING PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS FIRST AROUND MIDDAY...THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL BAND MAY ALLOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIDED BY A SECONDARY ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN/ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO DESTABILIZATION. IT IS NOT EVEN CLEAR THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BE MUCH ABOVE THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A THUNDER OUTLOOK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE LARGE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE CAPABLE OF CONTRIBUTING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE GUSTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGING SPEEDS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE...SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES BELOW SLIGHT RISK LEVELS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BUT...THE THREAT AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ..KERR.. 02/24/2011 While what is being said here would imply Severe storms are unlikely, it is vomit worthy that we are in February still and I have to even read about anything to do with severe T-Storms. I know some people get excited over stuff like this and so do I, in June-August, not now. Seeing it discussed now just sickens me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 DBC I like my severe wx in May and June and then again in September and October. I like July and August to be very hot and very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Instead of Lynbrook I'm at my second home in Liberty NY where Moderate snow has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 18Z GFS came in very wet, it takes the surface low right over NJ I believe and keeps us in the steadier precip longer. If that verified, moderate flooding might be a better forecast than the current just below to minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Up here the NWS for Libertry NY is calling for 1-3 tonight and 1-3 tomm. Further north 8-12 Hope it verifies... What part of NJ is the surface low expected to go through since I'll be NW of the Surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 You guys wanna see a gradient? Look in Ohio and NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Whoa, now that's a hell of a gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You guys wanna see a gradient? Look in Ohio and NW PA Hold on let me dig up some images from 2/6/10..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Whoa, now that's a hell of a gradient! I feel bad for those guys near Boston. Nothing sucks worse than getting a few inches of snow and then having it all washed away. I'd rather get 0 snow then 4" of snow only to see it all gone a few hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 moderate graupel dusting on elevated deck and snowpack 36/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 dusting on elevated deck around 400 ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 SPC WRF bringing a line of strong thunderstorms through 22z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Light snow here, wasn't expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 around 400 ft? 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Light snow here, wasn't expecting that Yeah either was I, had flurries earlier this afternoon, then on and off graupel the last hour, pretty cool, very convective, starts and stops on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 2.5 nzucker scoffs at you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 from the philly thread, walt drag on the wind threat TU drexel hill on the threads. on wind...imo this will be significantly worse between noon and 9 PM Friday...convective gusts of 50-60 knots appear realistic in the lines of remaining midday/aftn instability. everything i am seeing thru the 18z runs from tghe ec/gfs/nam says tstms with svr wind. then i think we will see a few minutes of nw gusts of 45 to 55 kts at many locations along and se of I95 between 4 pm and 7 P as the strong cold front pushes thru with asstd 10mb pres rises in 3 hrs and temps dropping 10-18 degs within an hr. presuming this expectation of convection and momentum transfer is correct...then it will be notably MUCH stronger than last saturday with resultant many trees and wires down with asstd power outages. the rest you can conjecture. this is based on hi wind composites/transfer programs/richardson numbers and internal mxg ht gust transfer tools. liklihood for convection between noon and 5P and I think PHL will have its strong cfp ard 5PM... am going to lower temps susbantially at 7 pm tomorrow. the warmer its is above MOS guidance during midday tomorrow the stronger the wind. wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 intermittent light to moderate graupel, 36.7F. had a very light accumulation on Route 6 in Bethel about an hour ago in a burst of heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 00z NAM is coming in much cooler, has the low passing over Long Island tomorrow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 nzucker scoffs at you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 High surf advisory for Brooklyn ny, looking more and more like march 13 2010 storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 High surf advisory for Brooklyn ny, looking more and more like march 13 2010 storm! Don't say that.... I don't want 70 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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