earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The 12z NAM actually has NYC getting into the mid 50's with the thermal boundary still back to the west on Friday. Either way, going to be rainy end to the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 my elevation is 285 feet. I can't compete with nzucker, but that 285 feet should help pay dividends and give me one and a half wet snow flakes to mix in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Time to move on from this winter and rejoice. We all saw a lot of snow and some very high impact storms. Lets warm up and dry out and move into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Time to move on from this winter and rejoice. We all saw a lot of snow and some very high impact storms. Lets warm up and dry out and move into summer. March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March? I know there is a big push on here for march snow, and thats fine if it happens, but 50s and rain for the next seven days is sucky. Bring on the babes, beer, and beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 March? You can count me out of that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM shifted about 150 miles northwest. Chicago had nothing on the 12z run..and they're getting hammered with a CCB on the 18z run at hour 39. Can you imagine the joy going through the snow weenies veins in that area? Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How warm do we go? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM has close to 1.50" of rain for tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 rain is cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FREE CAR WASH. Put some soap on the car in the morning and by the time the storm is over, you have a clean car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FREE CAR WASH. Put some soap on the car in the morning and by the time the storm is over, you have a clean car. Genius...pure genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Also from Mt. Holly HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion --WHILE A FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT...WE WILL FORGO THE WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS AND HPC QPF FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVER IS RAPIDLY DISAPPEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND SETTLING TO THE NORTH. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL PLAY INTO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL JUST YET. THE POSITION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MORE LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHETHER FLOODING OCCURS OR NOT. A GENERAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES (ASSUMING IT FALLS OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD) WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE HEADWATER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SOME OF OUR FASTER RESPONDERS (SUCH AS THE ASSUNPINK AND RARITAN). THE MODEL CONSENSUS (AS WELL AS HPC) IS STARTING TO LEAN TO A HIGHER QPF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 0900 UTC SREF PRECIPITATION PLUMES SHOW BETWEEN 1.35 AND 1.70 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT COULD BE FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE THROUGH SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THESE AREAS WOULD BE MOST PRONE TO FLOOD...IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS IN THESE AREAS. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...WE WILL FORGO THE WATCH THIS TIME...AND REEVALUATE THE POTENTIAL THURSDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- pretty good consensus with Upton (below) .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion --THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES RESULTING IN AT LEAST MODERATE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN EXISTS FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENT FLOODING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAIN. IF THE AREA WERE TO RECEIVE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND EVEN MAINSTEM RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 With such a strong LLJ in place, we'll have to watch for the development of low topped convection which would be able to bring down some of the stronger winds aloft to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Sorry I need to be a weenie for a second. That map is a sad state of affairs. I am only in the purples when it rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We can blame the the positive phase of the NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We can blame the the positive phase of the NAO... actually, blame the PNA. The concept that you need a -NAO around here to get snow is simply not true. It helps, but its not the end all. HOWEVER, if your PNA looks like the current one, you are up a river without a paddle without the -NAO. Fact of the matter is this is the raging nina pattern and the NAO would help mitigate this and without it you need luck like two days ago or a different PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This kind of weather is what we can look forward to until late spring 40's and 50's and rain, in a nutshell cold and wet, because the nao will go negative...just too late for significant snow. La Nina springs are also usually on the cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just curious, I'm upstate in Liberty NY now (My second home away from Long Island) Elevation 1600 feet. Is there a chance here of something decent from Thursday night into Friday. I know Lynbrook is wet, but up here can this be another scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 actually, blame the PNA. The concept that you need a -NAO around here to get snow is simply not true. It helps, but its not the end all. HOWEVER, if your PNA looks like the current one, you are up a river without a paddle without the -NAO. Fact of the matter is this is the raging nina pattern and the NAO would help mitigate this and without it you need luck like two days ago or a different PAC. The west coast is the place to be for snow right now. Up to 8" in Seattle and Portland-- the latest theyve had significant snow since 1989! And it might even snow all the way down to San Fran! We know Feb 1989 sucked around here and was great on the West Coast, but what happened in March 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 the 18z nam has a 70+kt low level jet over long island during the height of the storm. with tremendous isentropic lifting and upglide there is the potential for very heavy precipitation within the warm sector. its also moved the warm front a bit further north and west which allows the area to clear more into the warm sector. with strong southerly winds and the warm front to the north--most of the area gets into the mid 50's in this setup. i wouldn't at all be surprised to see low topped convection in the area which could be a significant problem nearer to the low level jet with the very strong winds aloft. the nam has 20-30kt 10m winds in the city and near 40 kt 10m winds on the east end of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 SPC has a small 5% risk area that extends into Southern New Jersey on the Day 3 Outlooks ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... A FAST MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY FRI MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR WV. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WITH THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE W...MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS VA...MD AND DE AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TAKE PLACE...WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER KNOWN IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the 18z nam has a 70+kt low level jet over long island during the height of the storm. with tremendous isentropic lifting and upglide there is the potential for very heavy precipitation within the warm sector. it's also moved the warm front a bit further north and west which allows the area to clear more into the warm sector. with strong southerly winds and the warm front to the north--most of the area gets into the mid 50's in this setup. i wouldn't at all be surprised to see low topped convection in the area which could be a significant problem nearer to the low level jet with the very strong winds aloft. the nam has 20-30kt 10m winds in the city and near 40 kt 10m winds on the east end of long island. Yep with a strong low cutting to our west and and winds ripping out of the south winds should be strong. Wonder if a more southerly component wind keeps coastal sections of S LI cooler. Will see how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The region will also be near the exit region of an upper jet streak over NJ which may enhance the potential of forced low topped squall line formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep with a strong low cutting to our west and and winds ripping out of the south winds should be strong. Wonder if a more southerly component wind keeps coastal sections of S LI cooler. Will see how that works out. the juxtaposition of some key features is also important to note. the 18z nam at 48 hours has a 989mb surface low in upstate new york. more importantly, the dynamics are through the roof at that time. there's a small area of 110+kt 300mb winds in the warm sector and the exit region of the upper level jet. the warm front is already over southern new england at this hour. the 500mb trough and associated forcing/ascent is still back to the west..this could be a wind producer especially further to the south where there is better low level moisture and temperatures are even into the 60's over the mid atlantic. for our area...we have to watch the more synoptic wind potential which will come with the heavy rain and insane isentropic lifting. cool synoptic event being advertised by the 18z nam. we will have to wait and see if it has the right idea, or if it's overly dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The west coast is the place to be for snow right now. Up to 8" in Seattle and Portland-- the latest theyve had significant snow since 1989! And it might even snow all the way down to San Fran! We know Feb 1989 sucked around here and was great on the West Coast, but what happened in March 1989? NYC had a snowstorm and temps in the teens during the first week of 1989,a rain changed to snow situation.The rest of the month was cool with a heavy rainstorm with thunder near the first day of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I am looking foward to this rainstorm.I dont remember the last time there was filth like this.There is a layer of brown filth on top on the sidewalks,cars.The streets are loaded with salt.we need a good cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the juxtaposition of some key features is also important to note. the 18z nam at 48 hours has a 989mb surface low in upstate new york. more importantly, the dynamics are through the roof at that time. there's a small area of 110+kt 300mb winds in the warm sector and the exit region of the upper level jet. the warm front is already over southern new england at this hour. the 500mb trough and associated forcing/ascent is still back to the west..this could be a wind producer especially further to the south where there is better low level moisture and temperatures are even into the 60's over the mid atlantic. for our area...we have to watch the more synoptic wind potential which will come with the heavy rain and insane isentropic lifting. cool synoptic event being advertised by the 18z nam. we will have to wait and see if it has the right idea, or if it's overly dynamic. It will be interesting to see how things play out.Back on 3/5/08 we got a pre dawn squall line to race through a day after a MDT Risk to our south. We'll have to watch for later runs to see the specifics.Sometimes the best LLJ runs just out ahead of developing warm sector convection.The models are obviously hitting the heavy rain with the warm front but we'll have to see what kind of warm sector development there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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