Predict Summer 2011 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions sq km)

[The_Global_Warmer]

Revised Jaxa provides another increase for 9/12.....+5.5k....the 4.51-4.75'ers look to have taken the overall contest....congrats!

we haven't seen any open water ice recovery I am not so sure this is going to be the low point when the ssts are so warm.

[LakeEffectKing]

we haven't seen any open water ice recovery I am not so sure this is going to be the low point when the ssts are so warm.

Maybe, but to get to below 4.51 there would have to be (at least during this time of year) something pretty drastic over the next couple days, and with the already 3 days worth of ice extent increase.

[tacoman25]

It looks like the Arctic will be warming somewhat over the next 4-5 days, so I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't quite done with the loss days. However, the odds of having a low much lower than we've already been are not good. The odds of surpassing 2007 are less than 1% now, in my opinion.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Maybe, but to get to below 4.51 there would have to be (at least during this time of year) something pretty drastic over the next couple days, and with the already 3 days worth of ice extent increase.

That would only require a 30,000km2 loss.

I am not sure we wil. see it either because of the winds. Right now unfortunately we are still losing ice and volume because the winds are pushing the ice into warmer waters we can see this on MODIS but also from the concentration maps showing erratic concentration. Part of that is due to clouds but it's also from the ice being so thin and still being torn up. There is still so much warm water out there and the Barrents/Laptev as Tacoman pointed out are going to warm and if sunlight gets going there. The sun still has juice to warm waters there.

Sorry for the image size. These are real time from validated buoys. If the temp is bunk it will have a dashed circle around it.

ESB looks like the most likely target for new ice to form right now.

the salinity at the surface at least is lower there.

winds right now are diverging the ice pack. This has been the story of 2011. The last two months has seen a mostly diverging scene. While warm waters continued to be pumped into the arctic or areas saw warm and sun. The Beaufort would have divergence, melt would cool the water. then a 3-4 day heat wave would come and warm it up and push that water back into the ice. It's no surprise how this feedback is out of control. If the ice can't find a way to cover the waters of the arctic for a longer period it won't recover. Imagine an early heat wave on the Russian side next summer and there is much open water in mid June. 3 months of max solar insulation. this feedback has made co2 forcing look like childs play so far.