Predict Summer 2011 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions sq km)

[ORH_wxman]

Tacoman predicted 35k through the end of the month while Friv predicted "50-60k" but no exact value. First night is 40k on August 15th. We'll see who is closer. Friv has the advantage of giving a big range for verification, so I'll assume 55k for the average for him in keeping score to be fair.

I think there are still some big loss potentials coming up...but the current pattern is favoring low losses. Climo and sun angle slows ice melt down the later we go.

So I'll keep a tally...day 1:

Tacoman: +10k advantage (Friv was 15k error, and Tacoman was 5k error...so a 10k advantage for Tacoman)

I will be 100% objective in scoring that bet.

[The_Global_Warmer]

UB prelim graph for today dropped again quite a bit in compared to yesterday. Early MODIS show quite a bit of compaction/melt in the E. Siberian Sea then south of there where the newest area of low concentration ice a decent recede again took place..faster the further south you go. The Ice East of Greenland is now cut off from the main ice pack and is being bombarded by very warm water and air...that ice should melt some..but it's hard to say. The winds have picked up from South to North in the Arctic basin in response to the SLP forming and slowly deepening right now on the Atlantic side.

it looks like the next few days should offer higher extent drops before the possibility of some very slow days comes up if things go right for it.

[ORH_wxman]

UB prelim graph for today dropped again quite a bit in compared to yesterday. Early MODIS show quite a bit of compaction/melt in the E. Siberian Sea then south of there where the newest area of low concentration ice a decent recede again took place..faster the further south you go. The Ice East of Greenland is now cut off from the main ice pack and is being bombarded by very warm water and air...that ice should melt some..but it's hard to say. The winds have picked up from South to North in the Arctic basin in response to the SLP forming and slowly deepening right now on the Atlantic side.

it looks like the next few days should offer higher extent drops before the possibility of some very slow days comes up if things go right for it.

No comment on the Jaxa loss in the sea ice thread? I know you have been predicting monstrous losses almost every day in the Nevin thread not on this site, but let us know what you think here and how bad it will get.

[nzucker]

No comment on the Jaxa loss in the sea ice thread? I know you have been predicting monstrous losses almost every day in the Nevin thread not on this site, but let us know what you think here and how bad it will get.

[ORH_wxman]

It's not supposed to be funny, its supposed to be a legit honest opinion. He accused AMEX of being "a bunch of deniers" on the other site (Nevin). This is the first year I have followed that site and they are obsessed with breaking the 2007 record. Frivolous called our site "a bunch of deniers" when he posted there about our sea ice posts. So I ask Frivolous here in a completely honest manner of 5 questions: (and you can post this on your Neven site if you want, I give full permission)

1. Do you think 2011 will break 2007's record (jaxa extent)?

2. Do you think posts (with peer reviewed data) that show multi-year ice increasing are false?

3. Do you think SSTs are more important than sea level pressure patterns?

4. Do you think there is any credence in the peer reviewed analysis that showed the early 1950s had very low ice volume comparable to the early 2000s?

5. Do you think AGW is the primary cause of the ice loss from 2000 to the present?

I think I'm being extremely fair here asking these questions...in the face of Frivolous calling us "deniers" on the other site. I will never demean another group of people like that. I will let them answer with real data.If Friv wants to answer with actual peer reviewed data on my exact questions, that is fine. I will not ban him or say anything bad.

This is in the face of these people on other sites accusing us of blackballing "the other side of the story".....complete horsesh*t....I invite anyone from Nevin's site to post here or anyone from any other blog who wants to actually talk objective data. So you tell your friends Friv that they are welcome here...we are an open forum. This is not about blackballing people, its not about fudging data....we will debate any bit that your friends from that site want to debate here.

I know all of there stuff too...the Cryosphere area they are drooling over because its lower than extent (notice how they never pulled that out in 2009). Friv, I honestly want them to post here. Tell them to post here. You talk about us on that site but never tell them we are an open forum. We are glad to hear every opinion.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's not supposed to be funny, its supposed to be a legit honest opinion. He accused AMEX of being "a bunch of deniers" on the other site (Nevin). This is the first year I have followed that site and they are obsessed with breaking the 2007 record. Frivolous called our site "a bunch of deniers" when he posted there about our sea ice posts. So I ask Frivolous here in a completely honest manner of 5 questions: (and you can post this on your Neven site if you want, I give full permission)

1. Do you think 2011 will break 2007's record (jaxa extent)?

2. Do you think posts (with peer reviewed data) that show multi-year ice increasing are false?

3. Do you think SSTs are more important than sea level pressure patterns?

4. Do you think there is any credence in the peer reviewed analysis that showed the early 1950s had very low ice volume comparable to the early 2000s?

5. Do you think AGW is the primary cause of the ice loss from 2000 to the present?

I think I'm being extremely fair here asking these questions...in the face of Frivolous calling us "deniers" on the other site. I will never demean another group of people like that. I will let them answer with real data.If Friv wants to answer with actual peer reviewed data on my exact questions, that is fine. I will not ban him or say anything bad.

This is in the face of these people on other sites accusing us of blackballing "the other side of the story".....complete horsesh*t....I invite anyone from Nevin's site to post here or anyone from any other blog who wants to actually talk objective data. So you tell your friends Friv that they are welcome here...we are an open forum. This is not about blackballing people, its not about fudging data....we will debate any bit that your friends from that site want to debate here.

I know all of there stuff too...the Cryosphere area they are drooling over because its lower than extent (notice how they never pulled that out in 2009). Friv, I honestly want them to post here. Tell them to post here. You talk about us on that site but never tell them we are an open forum. We are glad to hear every opinion.

I am not playing your games..I called you deniers because of the attitude problem here from "your point of view crowd" Then one day instead of dealing with all of the garbage I asked the questions and the people spitting out garbage had nothing to say. No answers. We got smiley faces, insults and bethesda rich posts.

1. Do you think 2011 will break 2007's record (jaxa extent)? No

2. Do you think posts (with peer reviewed data) that show multi-year ice increasing are false? Since 2007 no. But why not go back to the early 2000s? then ask me. Since you think the early 2000s in questions 4 and 5 are important.

3. Do you think SSTs are more important than sea level pressure patterns? No, but more important then they get credit for since they allow 2m temps to warm faster around the ice pack and melt ice themselves the warmer they go.

4. Do you think there is any credence in the peer reviewed analysis that showed the early 1950s had very low ice volume comparable to the early 2000s? What does this have to with the 2011 Sea Ice? Why can't you discuss that? Do you think the late 2000s till now Sea Ice Volume is back to early 2000 levels? No, so explain the significance of this question?

5. Do you think AGW is the primary cause of the ice loss from 2000 to the present? Not playing this game, this is impossible to answer.

you are obsessed with that blog. You make a joke about there coveted sea ice area which is at record lows again. You have mocked them a half dozen times now. Did you forget that? You won't demean them but you mock them here? Ok?

When you want to talk about the ice in real time for once using the current available tools that track real time situations like buoys, ships, satellites, extent, area. That would be great. Instead you don't want to do that. We have a ship out there with real time data that just tracked well over 100 miles in ice 50-120 meters thick that the Thickness charts have 2+ meters. We have calculations that give massive leeway to error real time compared to cryosat2 that show how impossible it would to be melt as much ice as cryosat says and its not close. We have SST maps showing incredible temp anomalies mainly because the water isn't supposed to be there. Even though the anomalies extend into areas that have had open water for 20+ years and they are still way way way way above normal. I am have been tracking this on and off in REAL TIME since 2006-07. I am not a scientist I do not pretend to be one. I will never be one. I post data, real time daily data.

I already apologized once for calling some of the posters here deniers. I apologize again.

As far as the -40K drop. so what? It's SEA ICE. What is your point? I already posted many graphs showing the difference in this pattern and what I think will happen earlier. No one said anything.

If the ice for whatever reason stops that's great. It's what I want. I would be glad to be wrong.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No comment on the Jaxa loss in the sea ice thread? I know you have been predicting monstrous losses almost every day in the Nevin thread not on this site, but let us know what you think here and how bad it will get.

Maybe you should post there instead of stalking there and talking about it here?

Do me a favor and answer my simple questions?

What are the top 5 sea ice min extent years on record?

What are the top 5 sea ice area years on record?

What are the top 5 sea ice max years on record?

What are the top 5 sea ice max years on record?

What year have each of the lowest monthly sea ice extent anomalies been set?

Jan:

Feb:

March:

April:

May:

June:

July:

Aug:

Sept:

October:

November:

December:

What are the top 5 lowest years on record in MY ice?

what year set the record for warmest SST temps in the Arctic Ocean on record?

[tacoman25]

Tacoman predicted 35k through the end of the month while Friv predicted "50-60k" but no exact value. First night is 40k on August 15th. We'll see who is closer. Friv has the advantage of giving a big range for verification, so I'll assume 55k for the average for him in keeping score to be fair.

I think there are still some big loss potentials coming up...but the current pattern is favoring low losses. Climo and sun angle slows ice melt down the later we go.

So I'll keep a tally...day 1:

Tacoman: +10k advantage (Friv was 15k error, and Tacoman was 5k error...so a 10k advantage)

Skiier is going with 45k...loss from last night was revised to 36K.

[ORH_wxman]

As far as the -40K drop. so what? It's SEA ICE. What is your point? I already posted many graphs showing the difference in this pattern and what I think will happen earlier. No one said anything.

Lol, you just completely made a joke of almost all your posts with this line. So I guess sea ice isn't a big deal afterall.

And no, you have a very skewed view of how we talk about this here. You have made multiple posts calling anyone who said the ice wasn't in a catastrophic state "deniers" on that site. I'm not obsessed with that site, I was merely pointing out your hypocrisy in posting there with such nasty tones about this site. I really don't care what you think about the sea ice on the whole because you will always say how bad it is regardless of what pattern is showing up, but I do have a problem with hypocrisy. Its a bad way to operate.

[Sunny and Warm]

If the ice for whatever reason stops that's great. It's what I want. I would be glad to be wrong.

These are dishonest statements by you. You have shown repeatedly that you trumpet large losses as a sign of armeggedon and poopoo small losses as insignificant anomolies soon to be corrected. It's okay to admit you worship an open Arctic, but don't expect anyone to believe the opposite. It isn't that difficult to parse through statements and glean where people really stand.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Lol, you just completely made a joke of almost all your posts with this line. So I guess sea ice isn't a big deal afterall.

And no, you have a very skewed view of how we talk about this here. You have made multiple posts calling anyone who said the ice wasn't in a catastrophic state "deniers" on that site. I'm not obsessed with that site, I was merely pointing out your hypocrisy in posting there with such nasty tones about this site. I really don't care what you think about the sea ice on the whole because you will always say how bad it is regardless of what pattern is showing up, but I do have a problem with hypocrisy. Its a bad way to operate.

It is not a big deal to me if my predictions are wrong. As in I DO NOT CARE. The Ice is a tremendously big deal to our planet and our species. You read that site everyday. You have posted about it 6 or more times now here. Which is funny since your apparently mad about the same thing your claiming I do to you. I already apologized to you about calling you deniers. I am pretty sure I never said catastrophic. It is nasty. Tacoman posts about possibly seeing a sea ice min in late August. Which if we crunch the numbers is probably equally or less likely than reaching a new min. Did a bunch of posters break out and mock him? Right. There is no difference. Your right. I have had 10 times as many posts replied to me with insults than data refuting claims, real time data, or ideas since I have been here. I am not being a hypocrite. I am telling you this place gets ugly an most of it is from your side how is that hypocritical? You posted about Paul there and his large extent loss predictions here. Who is the hypocrite? I am not saying one thing and doing another I am telling you the tone here "was" way out of control. Then I posted about how I was done with it. Which was after I posted about this place and the horrible tone here. You were there. That was it. Then what happened. I withdrew myself from that and the same perpetrators came back out of the woodwork within days.

Let me ask you something.

comparing the Sea Ice in real time to 1979-2000 Climo on these categories rate them 1-10. Volume, Thickness, Extent, Area, MY ICE%, Ice Age, Water Temps. You can break it down month to month if you want year to year. Doesn't matter. The numbers for all of these categories are in the tank. And have really been in tank since June of 2010.

We have been running now in 1st or 2nd lowest Extent on record(jaxa) since the last week of May now at any given time.

Same thing with Sea Ice area which has spent more time in the top spot on CT or Jaxa. And is now like Extent somewhere around 2mil km2 below the 1979-2000 average and 2.5mil km2 below the 1979-1990 average.

Thickness and volume are both down by much higher percentages than Extent and Area. I have spent way to much time reading journals, ships data, buoy data and we are the lowest from the average. You can argue 2008 was thinner. If you would like we can get out Sat Images and take a look from there. Either way you slice it 2008 was only 3 years ago and in the ERA of thin ice.

we also set records for lowest monthly extent in June, July, and August right? Or am I wrong on June? Records for Extent and Area during the last 32/33 years. Sounds like the ice is doing pretty bad.

MY ICE is up from 2008. But the oldest ice is at it's lowest point. ATTM there is virtually no 4-5 yr+ old ice. We have to wait till September for the newest data but the July update showed the 3-5+ yr ice being almost wiped off the map.

SST Anomalies are currently off the charts for the Arctic. Last years were. Now this years are even worse. The amount of widespread warm water in areas that are supposed to be filled with ice can not be good for the Ice and the inhabitants of those areas that live off the natural ecosystem.

So lets see weather patterns change but the Ice is still in the same dilemma. The ice this summer regardless of pattern has been bad. Even now just because the extent and Area are not plummeting doesn't mean it is good. Good would be reversing the situation. having a pattern come and diverge the ice doesn't mean the ice isn't melting, losing, thickness, volume, MY ice and so on at any given time.

currently the flow has prevent the ice from compacting to lower extents. While concentration gets moved day to day. We can see on the REAL TIME sat images that there is still a whole lot of melting going on.

If you think what I just said is wrong please show me the data that says so.

[ORH_wxman]

You take this way too seriously Friv. You claim sea ice doesn't matter a few posts up and now you go on one of your long winded rants about its demise. Its hard to take contradicting posts seriously. And FWIW, I replied to Tacoman immediately and told him how rare an August extent minimum was...but I'm sure you didn't even read it given your response.

[The_Global_Warmer]

You take this way too seriously Friv. You claim sea ice doesn't matter a few posts up and now you go on one of your long winded rants about its demise. Its hard to take contradicting posts seriously. And FWIW, I replied to Tacoman immediately and told him how rare an August extent minimum was...but I'm sure you didn't even read it given your response.

Original Statement

As far as the -40K drop. so what? It's SEA ICE.

CLARIFICATION

It is not a big deal to me if my predictions are wrong. As in I DO NOT CARE. The Ice is a tremendously big deal to our planet and our species.

I took your comment as ripping my prediction. I retorted that I don't care if a I am wrong, so be it. What does it matter. I don't see why that is so hard to grasp. Just because I have an interest in following this and like to see if I can get it right doesn't mean it it's a big deal.

The statement has nothing to do with the importance of sea ice in regards to our planet.

How is that so hard to understand. My long winded posts show the ice has been bad regardless of whatever pattern is going on. If you meant to say the patterns haven't caused the ice to melt out or break new records sure. But I get the feeling that is another stab at my bad predictions.

I read it. You just don't treat people who throw out a 2007 minimum the same.

[ORH_wxman]

How is that so hard to understand. My long winded posts show the ice has been bad regardless of whatever pattern is going on. If you meant to say the patterns haven't caused the ice to melt out or break new records sure.

I read it. You just don't treat people who throw out a 2007 minimum the same.

When posters like Ytterbium throw it out every single year so many times, of course they don't get the same responses. Why would they?

[skierinvermont]

You take this way too seriously Friv. You claim sea ice doesn't matter a few posts up and now you go on one of your long winded rants about its demise. Its hard to take contradicting posts seriously. And FWIW, I replied to Tacoman immediately and told him how rare an August extent minimum was...but I'm sure you didn't even read it given your response.

I think his "It's just Sea Ice" comment was intended to mean that it's not a big deal if his predictions are wrong. Not that the ice doesn't matter.. obviously Friv thinks the ice matters. Sometimes Friv's writing isn't the clearest (no offense Friv) so it would be best to give him the benefit of the doubt about what he says he meant.

That said.. I don't entirely agree with his clarification either.. I think seeing how our predictions go wrong is a good learning experience and so is important. But I think Friv would probably agree with that.

[ORH_wxman]

I think his "It's just Sea Ice" comment was intended to mean that it's not a big deal if his predictions are wrong. Not that the ice doesn't matter.. obviously Friv thinks the ice matters. Sometimes Friv's writing isn't the clearest (no offense Friv) so it would be best to give him the benefit of the doubt about what he says he meant.

That said.. I don't entirely agree with his clarification either.. I think seeing how our predictions go wrong is a good learning experience and so is important. But I think Friv would probably agree with that.

My problem with him sometimes is that he constantly uses failed predictions (like my April prediction of September extent last year) to discredit a poster when he is wrong all the time on 1-2 day forecasts. Its hypocrisy and pretty terrible reasoning anyway to use a long range forecast (where the poster claimed no skill to begin with) as proof that someone doesn't know what they are talking about.

Its fine to say you think there will be a 2007 min but at least provide good reasoning and when someone disagrees with you, do not blow up into long rants...provide good counter arguments.

[The_Global_Warmer]

My problem with him sometimes is that he constantly uses failed predictions (like my April prediction of September extent last year) to discredit a poster when he is wrong all the time on 1-2 day forecasts. Its hypocrisy and pretty terrible reasoning anyway to use a long range forecast (where the poster claimed no skill to begin with) as proof that someone doesn't know what they are talking about.

Its fine to say you think there will be a 2007 min but at least provide good reasoning and when someone disagrees with you, do not blow up into long rants...provide good counter arguments.

http://www.americanw...post__p__852195

I told you that was it for me. I have apologized twice since. I only brought this thread up because of Skiier and how good he is at this. Until Bethesda got the Axe things got pretty bad around here.

I don't recall saying long range forecasts required no skill. if I did would you link me to that?

I told you before to show me the data that counters the data I post.

now outside of my busted forecasts. you showed me one map of a small MY year ice increase mostly in the 2-3 yr range. That is it.

what am I missing? Please link me to the data that I am not seeing.

When we debate thickness I provided Buoy data. I also provided data based off ships observations that show the 1950s were lower than the 60s, 70s and 80s. Ice sat, Pimoass, now I provided real time updates from Polarstern. I don't think anyone even acknowledged it. It validates some of the thickness model data from cryosat2 and some from Piomass. If it is even that accurate.

If the real time OBS and Data showed a different story then that is what I would be talking about.

I got tired of hearing predictions and circumstantial evidence making them. Our real time data tells us the Crysophere is not doing so hot. We have 32 years of trends to tell us this of real extreme accurate data compared to correlations.

I already told you and have reposed multiple times complete acceptance of the Beaufort Gyre and the DA anomaly role in this.

I would like to add if we had a massive DA set up now for a few weeks, 2011 would end up setting massive records all over the board for late August to early September melt. The ice is in pretty bad shape right now for not having very ideal wind conditions all summer. I think that is worse news than a surface pressure anomaly causing the ice to be forced out of the arctic. Rather than the ice to sit and rot because its warm.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't recall saying long range forecasts required no skill. if I did would you link me to that?

I said I claimed to have no skill at an April prediction for September min that was better than recent climo. I don't care what you said about the skill level. But using it to invalidate what someone posts is pretty terrible.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I said I claimed to have no skill at an April prediction for September min that was better than recent climo. I don't care what you said about the skill level. But using it to invalidate what someone posts is pretty terrible.

Your right I shouldn't of done that. It wont happen again. I learn from my mistakes.

[ORH_wxman]

Tacoman predicted 35k through the end of the month while Friv predicted "50-60k" but no exact value. First night is 40k on August 15th. We'll see who is closer. Friv has the advantage of giving a big range for verification, so I'll assume 55k for the average for him in keeping score to be fair.

I think there are still some big loss potentials coming up...but the current pattern is favoring low losses. Climo and sun angle slows ice melt down the later we go.

So I'll keep a tally...day 1:

Tacoman: +10k advantage (Friv was 15k error, and Tacoman was 5k error...so a 10k advantage)

Tonight's prelim is -39k, so that is a 4k error for Tacoman and a 16k error for Friv...

Total error thus far in their contest:

Tacoman: 5k (last night's 5k error was revised to 1k when it went down to a 36k loss)

Friv: 35k

So Tacoman has opened a 30k lead after two days.

[skierinvermont]

What about me I feel left out

[ORH_wxman]

What about me I feel left out

What did you predict...was it 45k for the rest of the month, right?

[skierinvermont]

What did you predict...was it 45k for the rest of the month, right?

yeah that was it

howd bedard do tonight? i missed it

[ORH_wxman]

yeah that was it

howd bedard do tonight?

Tonight's prelim is -39k, so that is a 4k error for Tacoman and a 16k error for Friv and a 6k error for skier...

Total error thus far in their contest:

Tacoman: 5k (last night's 5k error was revised to 1k when it went down to a 36k loss)

skier: 15k

Friv: 35k

There is the updated with all 3 of you. I will say "error" in the tally, but the score obviously won't be absolute error (i.e. 10k too high and then 10k too low the next day will be a perfect score for the two days and not a 20k error since we are measuring average extent loss per day...but each day's loss has been on the same side of the guess for every poster). Tacoman was 1k too low yesterday and the prelim tonight he is 4k too low...conversely, you have been 9k and 6k too high each day...but if you go 15k too low tomorrow night (a 60k loss) then you will have a 0k error for the 3 days.

Bedard looked sharp...see Red Sox thread a few posts back. He got shafted by defense though.

[skierinvermont]

taco: 30k

ski: 0k

friv: 30k

[ORH_wxman]

Tonight's prelim is -39k, so that is a 4k error for Tacoman and a 16k error for Friv and a 6k error for skier...

Total error thus far in their contest:

Tacoman: 5k (last night's 5k error was revised to 1k when it went down to a 36k loss)

skier: 15k

Friv: 35k

There is the updated with all 3 of you. I will say "error" in the tally, but the score obviously won't be absolute error (i.e. 10k too high and then 10k too low the next day will be a perfect score for the two days and not a 20k error since we are measuring average extent loss per day...but each day's loss has been on the same side of the guess for every poster). Tacoman was 1k too low yesterday and the prelim tonight he is 4k too low...conversely, you have been 9k and 6k too high each day...but if you go 15k too low tomorrow night (a 60k loss) then you will have a 0k error for the 3 days.

Lol, we got exactly a 60k loss on the prelim tonight. So here are the standings after 3 days...

Tacoman: 30k

Friv: 30k

skier: 0k

[BethesdaWX]

I'm still stuck in my 2000-2005 world, since the loss of M.Y Ice in 2007 I have absolutely blown at these Sea Ice Predictions on every forum I've posted in, been too high on minimums and too low on maximums. I need to change my method a bit.

[skierinvermont]

I'm still stuck in my 2000-2005 world, since the loss of M.Y Ice in 2007 I have absolutely blown at these Sea Ice Predictions on every forum I've posted in, been too high on minimums and too low on maximums. I need to change my method a bit.

We live in the post-2007 era. There has been a sea change in ice.

[BethesdaWX]

We live in the post-2007 era. There has been a sea change in ice.

Didn't know that dude

[ORH_wxman]

Keep this thread clean of the back and forth 5th grader crap please. We have had enough threads take that turn.