Predict Summer 2011 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions sq km)

[The_Global_Warmer]

I Wish I saw this earlier.

way to late to vote now.

Looks like Bethesda and Clifford are the first to fall.

All in all the posters who take the most grief will be the closest.

[skierinvermont]

I decided that the Arctic Ice is slowly thickening. And thus 2011 will just edge out 2009.

I'm sure instead of realizing this line of reasoning is totally incorrect skeptics will continue making predictions in the 5.25+ range next year as well based on the same incorrect belief that the ice has gotten thicker. And if the ice ever does go above 5.25 for a single year in the next decade, I'm sure it will validate the reasoning while the 9 years of failure did nothing to invalidate it.

[skierinvermont]

I Wish I saw this earlier.

way to late to vote now.

Looks like Bethesda and Clifford are the first to fall.

All in all the posters who take the most grief will be the closest.

Same old story, year in and year out.

[ORH_wxman]

Same old story, year in and year out.

You know deep down a lot of this is complete spin. Be honest with yourself skier. Look at a lot of the posts Friv and others make every single year about 2007 and about how theres no way the ice can survive, etc. Now, that isn't to say that there are other posts that ignore the fact ice has been going down, but I find it amusing that when we first started the arctic sea ice thread back when you were probably like a sophmore in college, that a majority of the posts were talking about a new record min in 2008. Then it didn't happen, so the same process started again in 2009. Then in 2010. Here we are in 2011 and its generally the same exact type of atmosphere that it was back in 2008, except we just have more posters now, so there is more crap to read through. Just like back then, the start of summer begins with all the talk about 2007.

I'm also a little bit at a loss of how you can conclude that predicting ice over 5.25 mil sq km before the melt season begins is terrible considering we just had that type of minimum in 2009 and we haven't had a -DA summer since 2006. Using short term data (less than 2 years) to try and claim any skill over a long range forecast about a system we are still learning a great deal about screams of arrogance.

[skierinvermont]

You know deep down a lot of this is complete spin. Be honest with yourself skier. Look at a lot of the posts Friv and others make every single year about 2007 and about how theres no way the ice can survive, etc. Now, that isn't to say that there are other posts that ignore the fact ice has been going down, but I find it amusing that when we first started the arctic sea ice thread back when you were probably like a sophmore in college, that a majority of the posts were talking about a new record min in 2008. Then it didn't happen, so the same process started again in 2009. Then in 2010. Here we are in 2011 and its generally the same exact type of atmosphere that it was back in 2008, except we just have more posters now, so there is more crap to read through. Just like back then, the start of summer begins with all the talk about 2007.

I'm also a little bit at a loss of how you can conclude that predicting ice over 5.25 mil sq km before the melt season begins is terrible considering we just had that type of minimum in 2009 and we haven't had a -DA summer since 2006. Using short term data (less than 2 years) to try and claim any skill over a long range forecast about a system we are still learning a great deal about screams of arrogance.

Yes I was being a little bit over the top.

But some of the predictions by lots of people around here are just as bad as Ytterbium and yet they don't take any heat for it while Ytterbium is thrown out.

I don't know of any others besides Ytterbium that predicted anything close to 2007. In 2009, '10, '11 I've predicted 5.2, 5.2, 4.8. So too high on average.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes I was being a little bit over the top.

But some of the predictions by lots of people around here are just as bad as Ytterbium and yet they don't take any heat for it while Ytterbium is thrown out.

I don't know of any others besides Ytterbium that predicted anything close to 2007. In 2009, '10, '11 I've predicted 5.2, 5.2, 4.8. So too high on average.

Making predictions in a poll and then someone posting over and over again about it are two different things though. Ytterbium used to go on posting binges every time he thought 2007 would be broken, so it got old really fast and thus was hammered with a lot of criticism. If some weenie predicts 6 million sq km min but then posts hardly ever, who really cares? Its similar to the winter threads, weenies who post the most about unrealistic predictions get hammered the most...and deservedly so. We don't really pick on posters who say "I think we're going to get 2 feet" and then never say anything else.

Bethesda was the poster on the skeptic side who was the loudest with his unrealistic predictions, and we suspended him from this part of the forum. We've been pretty fair I think in the scheme of things.

[The_Global_Warmer]

everyone but ORH has pretty much cleared out of the arctic sea ice thread for now given the path August has been on so far. I find that commendable. This is freaking weather and we are all here for the same reason.

I am not an expert, but a little common sense can go a long way with this. Right now the crysophere has dramatically shifted and even if the reasons are a DA and the Beaufort Gyre pooping out. Now more feedbacks are appearing. This is a natural cascade effect, a chain reaction of sorts.

without C02 those factors may not have been as bad, but Co2 starting his slow to fast rise in the late 19th century, surely played a small role overtime in heating the Earth/Arctic enough to start making an impact. Then the Sun became more active as well as the two stated above issues. Even when patterns flip. They can not themselves overturn all factors.

I am not suggesting run away melt or feedback,

But a massive factor called SSTs are in play. No one can deny how incredibly warm the arctic is right now and has been since 2007.

We lost so much ice so fast this year partly because this exact thing happened last year and now its worse by quite a bit.

30 years ago the arctic was deathly frigid anywhere it was open.

Now people sun bathe. this is absurd. One factor creates another and each time the next one could be harder to stop.

maybe the winds will save the ice from going to some crazy extent like 3.5km2 but what happens come October 1st and the arctic has to cool down from these warm waters. We better hope for perfect weather because if the arctic is well above normal this fall in temps with those SSTs in place. It could get very very very ugly.

[skierinvermont]

Making predictions in a poll and then someone posting over and over again about it are two different things though. Ytterbium used to go on posting binges every time he thought 2007 would be broken, so it got old really fast and thus was hammered with a lot of criticism. If some weenie predicts 6 million sq km min but then posts hardly ever, who really cares? Its similar to the winter threads, weenies who post the most about unrealistic predictions get hammered the most...and deservedly so. We don't really pick on posters who say "I think we're going to get 2 feet" and then never say anything else.

Bethesda was the poster on the skeptic side who was the loudest with his unrealistic predictions, and we suspended him from this part of the forum. We've been pretty fair I think in the scheme of things.

I'm certainly not commenting on the moderation.. more just the general tone of things around here. There are other posters besides Bethesda who make frequent unrealistic posts and criticism. I've got a bet with Clifford that I'm about to win on August 15th a month before the minimum.

Everybody was tripping over themselves to declare the preliminary Cryosat correct.. but it's just blatantly obvious (from direct observation and just basic logic) the ice is closer to half as thick as Cryosat showed.

[tacoman25]

I'm certainly not commenting on the moderation.. more just the general tone of things around here. There are other posters besides Bethesda who make frequent unrealistic posts and criticism. I've got a bet with Clifford that I'm about to win on August 15th a month before the minimum.

Everybody was tripping over themselves to declare the preliminary Cryosat correct.. but it's just blatantly obvious (from direct observation and just basic logic) the ice is closer to half as thick as Cryosat showed.

Actually, with the apparent pattern developing over the next week, it's possible we could see the minimum much earlier than that. If the latest Euro runs are close to correct, there will be a lot of re-freeze going on in areas that have been melting big lately.

[skierinvermont]

Actually, with the apparent pattern developing over the next week, it's possible we could see the minimum much earlier than that. If the latest Euro runs are close to correct, there will be a lot of re-freeze going on in areas that have been melting big lately.

It will certainly slow up or perhaps even stop over the coming week.. but that says almost nothing about what will occur after August 23rd.

[tacoman25]

It will certainly slow up or perhaps even stop over the coming week.. but that says almost nothing about what will occur after August 23rd.

I think it's possible we could actually see ice gains, within a week or so - IF (and this is a big if, of course) the pattern being shown now (especially by the Euro) comes to fruition and temperatures are really as cold as being modeled. I say this because the coldest air is forecast to be over the edges and weakest areas of the ice pack and the winds look to be nearly ideal for expanding ice. If some gains do occur, and a pattern favorable for melt doesn't pop up by mid September, we could see a late August minimum. It's happened before, I think it's within the realm of possibilty this year given how everything is setup.

[skierinvermont]

I think it's possible we could actually see ice gains, within a week or so - IF (and this is a big if, of course) the pattern being shown now (especially by the Euro) comes to fruition and temperatures are really as cold as being modeled. I say this because the coldest air is forecast to be over the edges and weakest areas of the ice pack and the winds look to be nearly ideal for expanding ice. If some gains do occur, and a pattern favorable for melt doesn't pop up by mid September, we could see a late August minimum. It's happened before, I think it's within the realm of possibilty this year given how everything is setup.

Even if we managed to gain 50 or 100k by Aug 25th... average losses after Aug 25th are well over 300k.

Way too early to be talking about the minimum.

[tacoman25]

Even if we managed to gain 50 or 100k by Aug 25th... average losses after Aug 25th are well over 300k.

Way too early to be talking about the minimum.

Well aware of that...but averages are just averages. With the right pattern, a late August minimum is possible.

Way too early to assume the minimum doesn't happen for a month (Sep 15th would actually be a bit later than average, I believe).

[ORH_wxman]

Well aware of that...but averages are just averages. With the right pattern, a late August minimum is possible.

Way too early to assume the minimum doesn't happen for a month (Sep 15th would actually be a bit later than average, I believe).

Late August min is extremely rare. I think it happened in 1987 and perhaps one other year. I know '87 had the record for earliest min and I think it was Aug 29th. Safest betis to predict a min near climo which is about Sept 10th.

[tacoman25]

Late August min is extremely rare. I think it happened in 1987 and perhaps one other year. I know '87 had the record for earliest min and I think it was Aug 29th. Safest betis to predict a min near climo which is about Sept 10th.

Right, and it's also happened the first week of September a number of times. You're right that a late August minimum is not statistically likely, but given the way the ice has melted this year and the way the ice pack is configured, I think there is defnitely potential for an earlier minimum than usual - or at least very little ice loss in September.

Of course, this all depends on what patterns happen over the next month. It will be interesting to see how the ice responds to the pattern change over the next week. After that, there is really only another 2-3 weeks of potential melt.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Actually, with the apparent pattern developing over the next week, it's possible we could see the minimum much earlier than that. If the latest Euro runs are close to correct, there will be a lot of re-freeze going on in areas that have been melting big lately.

I bet you that doesn't happen and the rest of August will average 50-60km2 per day losses and set a min record for Sea Ice Area.

[tacoman25]

I bet you that doesn't happen and the rest of August will average 50-60km2 per day losses and set a min record for Sea Ice Area.

The rest of August will average 50-60k/day losses in extent? I'll definitely take the best against that.

[ORH_wxman]

Avg daily extent loss for Jaxa between Aug 14-Aug 31:

2010: 41k

2009: 46k

2008: 62k

2007: 44k

2006: 25k

2005: 35k

2004: 49k

2003: 27k

2002: 37k

Mean: 40.6k

[LakeEffectKing]

The rest of August will average 50-60k/day losses in extent? I'll definitely take the best against that.

Bet him a couple of steaks......He's got a freezer full, I'm sure!!

[skierinvermont]

Right, and it's also happened the first week of September a number of times. You're right that a late August minimum is not statistically likely, but given the way the ice has melted this year and the way the ice pack is configured, I think there is defnitely potential for an earlier minimum than usual - or at least very little ice loss in September.

Of course, this all depends on what patterns happen over the next month. It will be interesting to see how the ice responds to the pattern change over the next week. After that, there is really only another 2-3 weeks of potential melt.

I'd say the exact opposite.. the ice is configured well for a prolonged melt season because of its very low concentration. We'd be more likely to see an early minimum if the ice were highly concentrated so that little melting could occur and that expansion could occur in the favored areas. Only thing in our favor at this point is good weather through D7.

Of course 75% will come down to the weather pattern Aug 25-Sep 25 which we just don't have any idea of at this point.

[skierinvermont]

Avg daily extent loss for Jaxa between Aug 14-Aug 31:

2010: 41k

2009: 46k

2008: 62k

2007: 44k

2006: 25k

2005: 35k

2004: 49k

2003: 27k

2002: 37k

Mean: 40.6k

Nice.. I'll take 45k ... based on cold weather this week while on the other hand we have unusually low concentration and warm SSTs.

The pattern since Aug 3 hasn't actually been too bad, but the very low concentration is giving us near record losses. I expect with the favorable weather the losses will decrease, but only closer to average rather than substantially below average.

[tacoman25]

Avg daily extent loss for Jaxa between Aug 14-Aug 31:

2010: 41k

2009: 46k

2008: 62k

2007: 44k

2006: 25k

2005: 35k

2004: 49k

2003: 27k

2002: 37k

Mean: 40.6k

I'll go with 35k.

[tacoman25]

Nice.. I'll take 45k ... based on cold weather this week while on the other hand we have unusually low concentration and warm SSTs.

The pattern since Aug 3 hasn't actually been too bad, but the very low concentration is giving us near record losses. I expect with the favorable weather the losses will decrease, but only closer to average rather than substantially below average.

Same things existed July 30 - Aug 4 when we had an unfavorable melt pattern, and we saw how much that slowed things down below normal melt then.

[skierinvermont]

Same things existed July 30 - Aug 4 when we had an unfavorable melt pattern, and we saw how much that slowed things down below normal melt then.

Yes but that was for 6 days.. there's 27 days left in the climo melt season. Sure it can happen for a brief period but with so much low concentration ice holding the extent values up I don't think we're going to see a sudden permanent halt to the melt season.

[tacoman25]

Yes but that was for 6 days.. there's 27 days left in the climo melt season. Sure it can happen for a brief period but with so much low concentration ice holding the extent values up I don't think we're going to see a sudden permanent halt to the melt season.

Right, but that was your argument for why the upcoming cold pattern would only reduce losses to "near average" instead of below average. The weather patterns have already proved that as long as the correct ones are in place, the melt can quickly slow to below normal, regardless of low concentration and SSTAs.

[skierinvermont]

Right, but that was your argument for why the upcoming cold pattern would only reduce losses to "near average" instead of below average. The weather patterns have already proved that as long as the correct ones are in place, the melt can quickly slow to below normal, regardless of low concentration and SSTAs.

Well that was my prediction to Aug 31 not just the next 7 days.. I don't think the pattern will be as good through then.

Also the divergence between the extent and area is even bigger than then indicating even more abnormally low extent.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's what each average would produce for an extent at the end of the month:

-65k: 4.52 mil sq km

-60k: 4.6 mil sqkm

-55k: 4.69 mil sq km

-50k: 4.77 mil sq km

-45k: 4.86 mil sq km

-40k: 4.94 mil sq km

-35k: 5.03 mil sq km

-30k: 5.11 mil sq km

-25k: 5.2 mil sq km

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am guessing the surface temps will drop in response to lower heights and even colder 850s?

I understand that 850s are cold and are decent indicators of temps. Which direction will the SLP be pulling the temps from?

Come day three this:

Of course after day three the conditions in the Beaufort according to the models get better for ice production. but there is a difference in thickening places that will rise SIA instead of SIE. We can already see this happening now with a much weaker transport of warm air/water compared to 3 days from now.

I'd like to see SIA raised and the entire Beaufort cooled a ton/covered in ice since the other side of the arctic has been crippled.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This time:

Once time goes on we will see how the HP orientates it self.

But through the next 5 days. The pattern is not the same. The winds coming from The south were much weaker. They were also hitting an ice pack like this:

On top of that the air coming in is warmer this time as well.

and the 12z Euro Diverges from the GFS and sends the coldest 850s to Siberia and streams warm air into the Beaufort by day 6+.

[ORH_wxman]

Tacoman predicted 35k through the end of the month while Friv predicted "50-60k" but no exact value. First night is 40k on August 15th. We'll see who is closer. Friv has the advantage of giving a big range for verification, so I'll assume 55k for the average for him in keeping score to be fair.

I think there are still some big loss potentials coming up...but the current pattern is favoring low losses. Climo and sun angle slows ice melt down the later we go.

So I'll keep a tally...day 1:

Tacoman: +10k advantage (Friv was 15k error, and Tacoman was 5k error...so a 10k advantage)