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Spring Flood thread


free_man

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SWEs in Maine are mainly 3-7", right about the norm, except for the N. half of Aroostook where their 2-4" is about 1/2 the norm. (The latest snow survey was done just prior to the 2/2 event, so I'm estimating things with that event and the 5-6 snow/mix added, about 1.5-2" add'l water. Next survey report sched for 3/1.)

The 2/28-3/1 event would, as gfs portrays it, cause street/urban problems due to blockages, but wouldn't melt all that much snow up here. Snow IMBY is grainy, like dry salt under a breakable (by adults) crust - wicked nasty to walk in w/o snowshoes, but still able to absorb considerable moisture. Only if the storm bulked up to 3-4", enough to run the ice, would serious problems be likely.

The worst NNE spring floods have perfect timing of snowmelt and rainfall. The record floods of 2008 on the St. John were just such a confluence. Farther southwest, the western mts/foothills had just as much rain following near equal (compared to normals and records) snowpack SWE, but the rain came a week after the big snowmelt and flooding was minor. Snowpack in 1987 was much less than in 2008 for that latter area, but rainfall timing caught max melt and made history.

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