OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah i haven't looked up your way but i know that down this way TTs were pumping toward 50 and SIs were approaching 0. with that kind of jet, i certainly wouldn't be surprised if we get a t-storm or two. i haven't looked since the 06z NAM...but PVD had a TT of 53 and some marginal elevated CAPE and convective instability. I'll check it out now and see what the deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I've heard people say that 1" of rain can generally be absorbed by 3" of snow. Is there any merit to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah...Phil, the 18z NAM has a 53 TT at PVD along with a 90 kt LLJ at 900mb. There is an area of 80 kJ of elevated CAPE along with an area of convective instability above the LLJ. We should be relatively similar to PVD given the instability is elevated and any thunderstorms would probably originate around the LLJ level. We "warm sector" at 850mb, here. The 12z GFS has TTs of 53 in PVD, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah...Phil, the 18z NAM has a 53 TT at PVD along with a 90 kt LLJ at 900mb. There is an area of 80 kJ of elevated CAPE along with an area of convective instability above the LLJ. We should be relatively similar to PVD given the instability is elevated and any thunderstorms would probably originate around the LLJ level. We "warm sector" at 850mb, here. The 12z GFS has TTs of 53 in PVD, also. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 monday looks progressive so that should limit totals and keep the meltdown in check. general .75 to 1.5 kinda thing most likely. looks relatively similar to what we just went through. bigger signal for something problematic next weekend/early next week? the euro has been very consistent in cutting off a low over the southern plains and gradually shifting it eastward across the southern u.s. that's something to watch - could be good, could be ugly. should have lots of moisture with it wherever it goes. but additionally/more importantly ec and ens have a pronounced frontal zone stalled out from the OV into the northeast later next week/weekend in conjunction with that southern plains 5h feature. big HP locked in place to the east and a deep S flow riding right up into the boundary, which is in no hurry to move based on current progs. the feature is also there on the gfs ens but nearly as well defined. anyhow, that would be/will be a substantial precip producer for someone - perhaps a large area - if it were to materialize. lots of cold on the north side of that boundary so hope it sinks south of us. euro: euro ens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 monday looks progressive so that should limit totals and keep the meltdown in check. general .75 to 1.5 kinda thing most likely. looks relatively similar to what we just went through. bigger signal for something problematic next weekend/early next week? the euro has been very consistent in cutting off a low over the southern plains and gradually shifting it eastward across the southern u.s. that's something to watch - could be good, could be ugly. should have lots of moisture with it wherever it goes. but additionally/more importantly ec and ens have a pronounced frontal zone stalled out from the OV into the northeast later next week/weekend in conjunction with that southern plains 5h feature. big HP locked in place to the east and a deep S flow riding right up into the boundary, which is in no hurry to move based on current progs. the feature is also there on the gfs ens but nearly as well defined. anyhow, that would be/will be a substantial precip producer for someone - perhaps a large area - if it were to materialize. lots of cold on the north side of that boundary so hope it sinks south of us. euro: euro ens: Nice post Philomena! Streams are very full, boy this setup you describe, 3/28/10? and oh if you did not see the other thread, plus today, yikes. NOHRSC The Northeast, northern Appalachians through the middle Great Lakes. In the Northeast, the model generally overdid the amount of melt from the recent warm period. Up to 2 1/2 inches of water were added back into the model in most of New York and eastward to the coast. One to 2 inches of water were removed from most of Maine due to under-simulation of snowmelt. The storm which followed the warmth in the Great Lakes and Ohio River basin had mixed precipitation and was overmodeled by the snow model. UP to 3/4 inch of water was added in a band from central Indiana through central Ohio and along southern Lake Erie and in the higher elevations of the northern Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The stream down the street is full again after last years dam failure . Pics from last year to today. Spring floods seem inevitable with all the precip expected and 3-4 tie-up in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interested to see FFG for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 as of this morning...darkest shaded are >90 percentile flow. a lot of these have seen a substantial rise over the last 5 days. same general signal here in the long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Didn't Scooter and HPC say Euro en were colder and more of a rain to snow situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Didn't Scooter and HPC say Euro en were colder and more of a rain to snow situation? I tihnk winter returns AFTER that event was the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Didn't Scooter and HPC say Euro en were colder and more of a rain to snow situation? Well they are pretty warm before any possibly changeover. I can't tell for sure if it would do that...only that it looked possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The ECM ensembles I see posted above look pretty intriguing for this area. I see the 6Z GFS implies a snow event here ultimately. Well they are pretty warm before any possibly changeover. I can't tell for sure if it would do that...only that it looked possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 12z gfs is very progressive and not nearly as deep as the ec/ens in the extended. result is just a fropa and some offshore development scooting out to sea. not likely imo, but we'll see how things go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Canadian looks like a monsoon by hr 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Well whether it ends up in nys or ne who knows but certainly growing consensus for a sizable precip event early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Well whether it ends up in nys or ne who knows but certainly growing consensus for a sizable precip event early next week. Or events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Or events. Yeah true. From a weenie meteo sense the 12z ec would possibly be the most entertaining storm of the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 not our area but parts of northern ohio went from normal flows last night to record flooding this afternoon.. hoping something like that doesnt happen around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Oddities,the pics I posted yesterday of the stream near me, that stream dropped about 3 feet overnight, sand bar and rocks exposed. Severe melting taking place right now of the pack here, it is ripe here , just a matter of time. Up the hill there are shade spots near 20 , mine is about 14 and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Lost 90% of the snowpack now, mostly piles, plows and shade, thats it, more warm weather and plenty of rain on the way later this week. Its a sad transition down here in the tropics but time waits for no weenie, looking forward to the first day of spring tomorrow, it is what it is!! Bring on bbq's and the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Lost 90% of the snowpack now, mostly piles, plows and shade, thats it, more warm weather and plenty of rain on the way later this week. Its a sad transition down here in the tropics but time waits for no weenie, looking forward to the first day of spring tomorrow, it is what it is!! Bring on bbq's and the beach! Yea sad, moving north now, will not be too long before its here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yea sad, moving north now, will not be too long before its here. What is sad is this post..and you giving in to the warm ideas..what a shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yea sad, moving north now, will not be too long before its here. Its tought to let go! But the thought of endless outside activity with the entire family, bikinis and barel dressed coeds makes its ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Its tought to let go! But the thought of endless outside activity with the entire family, bikinis and barel dressed coeds makes its ok Long long time before any bikinis are out. Have had lots of outside activity, still hanging on for some more good snows. Spring will be late maybe no spring right to summer in late May deal. In the meantime this freeze thaw cycle up here is a way to slow the melt down. Basically leaching out some water every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 What is sad is this post..and you giving in to the warm ideas..what a shame No not giving in to warmth dude just noting from personal obs the snow/ no snow line is moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 NYC hit 60 again today, thats at least 3 times this month, what a gradient this month has been, north of 84 winter still lives allbeit icy, south of there down here its been an all out torchathon with more on the way. Pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 No not giving in to warmth dude just noting from personal obs the snow/ no snow line is moving north. Its all about climo, for me im cooked, your next then kev, then will, then pete and the beat goes on............but its REALITY. Cant worry about things you dont have control over, just enjoy whatever mother nature throws at you. Today was a perfect example, Will had a wintery day, Kevin started winterlike then rain, you had a cold rain, and I had thunderstorms and temps in the mid 50's, we dont all live at 1k, so why the **** should I post like I do?? Now that would seem pretty stupid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Today was a disaster lost about 40% of the cover, ripe it is down to 8 out front 12 in the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Today was a disaster lost about 40% of the cover, ripe it is down to 8 out front 12 in the back Hopefully we can avoid a huge torching 3 inch rainstorm....we would get a double whammy. The interior snow pack is so full of water that any rain will run right off it and if its a warm 50F+ rain storm then the extra rapid melting of the pack will swell rivers/streams to pretty serious levels. Much better to melt it off gradually. Where a lot of the source regions are of these rivers/streams probably has 6"+ of liquid equivalent in the pack: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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