Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 steve and i basically wrote up the same thoughts at the same time, so figured might be worth a new thread to keep the ideas separate. Pete and Hunchie get 4-6 front end dump before the deluge. Between 2 and 6 inches of water tied upon the pack. Cold 1.5 rain for all of SNE with dews near 40 , quick intense hitter. Results should be a rapid increase in rivers that are at or above their median flows. Unlike most springs SNE rivers are chocked with ice. Ice jamming could become an issue if not with this storm then the intense cutter next week. I would expect some pretty good urban flooding in areas with deep snow, snow melt should be on the order of 50-65% due to the lower dews and lower temps. If there is a higher dew point assimilation then melting would become greater. Next weeks warmer intense cover will probably result in a fully ripened pack releasing in spring floods. JMHO, again ICE jams are the wildcards. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow agree steve - was actually going to start a thread with the following text but will just put it in here instead now that i've seen this post from you (though maybe we need a spring flood thread??) well not that this is going to make anyone very pleased...but it might be time to start thinking about flooding potential over the next week to 10 days (and/or beyond?). this certainly isn't to say it isn't going to snow again...or winter cancel...or grab the ipod, turn on your sarah mclachlan and head for the garage...or any of that stuff...i'm just pointing out a potential hazard. a quick look at the most recent snow water equivalent estimates suggests 1 to 8" of water is locked in the snowpack across SNE - with a large area estimated between 4 and 6"...highest amounts in parts of GC. just a quick and dirty approach: given january 1st through the first few days of february had basically 6" of LE at ORH with just about all of of that falling as snow and ice...these satellite estimates are likely accurate for the most part. anyhow, sometimes we "luck out" and get a slow melt down/sublimation...that sort of 10 to 15 day dry stretch with daytime highs in the middle 40s and nightime lows in the 20s. i'm not so sure that will unfold this go around...or at least soon enough to spare us some problems. the next few weeks should be pretty active stormwise, starting with this friday's event. thankfully, for now the pattern is rather progressive so most of the rain events should be relatively short-lived, hopefully helping things out. but if we get a bunch of 1 to 2" rainstorms and then get a slow mover/cut-off type deal that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Good idea. Not word one from Taunton, no hydro discussion in the AFD, weekly hydro discussion is from last week the 18 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, if this winds up being the case (slow rains with higher dews and 40s or whatever, then another, then another), then last week's torch really helped by melting while things were pretty dry (other than the freak show Friday evening). Would you mind changing the title to add Feb 24-March 5 or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 SWE snow water equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ehh, I live just about at the top of a hill so I want it to all melt off in one day! That way the ground stays frozen and my basement stays dry. If you live in a flood prone area just split now :devilsmiley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well...the basin average for the Blackstone River is 4.48" of SWE...and the GFS has 3-4" of rain in the next 6 days along with that really warm scenario on Monday. Could get pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, if this winds up being the case (slow rains with higher dews and 40s or whatever, then another, then another), then last week's torch really helped by melting while things were pretty dry (other than the freak show Friday evening). Would you mind changing the title to add Feb 24-March 5 or something? i don't mind doing that...but why? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 SWE snow water equivalent Shows my relative screwzone pretty well... I did look around my foundation, and most of it looks pretty good and clear of snow... gotta set up some channels for the gutters. At least the dog poop will be cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, if this winds up being the case (slow rains with higher dews and 40s or whatever, then another, then another), then last week's torch really helped by melting while things were pretty dry (other than the freak show Friday evening). Would you mind changing the title to add Feb 24-March 5 or something? I posted several times as much as I am a winter whore, having Feb be Bleh was not a bad thing infrastructure wise. elevation areas do not have the major flood issues we flatlanders do for obvious reasons. Still there is a lot of water which could release next week, just a heads up, more for us than headwater areas like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Good idea with this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I posted several times as much as I am a winter whore, having Feb be Bleh was not a bad thing infrastructure wise. elevation areas do not have the major flood issues we flatlanders do for obvious reasons. Still there is a lot of water which could release next week, just a heads up, more for us than headwater areas like you. Your house should be ok, though? Isn't Moosup pretty hilly? The Miller's River near here (further west on Rte 2, out nearer to Chris really) should be interesting with ice/flow next week Winter always winds up in the sea one way or the other, only to be reborn in the mountains again next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well...the basin average for the Blackstone River is 4.48" of SWE...and the GFS has 3-4" of rain in the next 6 days along with that really warm scenario on Monday. Could get pretty interesting. The Blackstone is about 75% of long term median flow which is a blessing. The rise from the melt last week has discharged into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well...the basin average for the Blackstone River is 4.48" of SWE...and the GFS has 3-4" of rain in the next 6 days along with that really warm scenario on Monday. Could get pretty interesting. the euro has a general 2 to 3" area wide as a 7 day total. the ggem has basically the same through 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Your house should be ok, though? Isn't Moosup pretty hilly? The Miller's River near here (further west on Rte 2, out nearer to Chris really) should be interesting with ice/flow next week Winter always winds up in the sea one way or the other, only to be reborn in the mountains again next year Oh I am fine. I am 300 feet above any water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the euro has a general 2 to 3" area wide as a 7 day total. the ggem has basically the same through 6 days Yea worst case scenario would be a total release next week, unlikely but again depending on what is left Sunday and how high dews get next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 the euro has a general 2 to 3" area wide as a 7 day total. the ggem has basically the same through 6 days It will be tough to match last March lol. Even then, it didn't quite reach here, just a foot or two short. Flood stage is 9 ft...it crested above 14 ft. The original NWS/ERC forecast was over 18 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yea worst case scenario would be a total release next week, unlikely but again depending on what is left Sunday and how high dews get next week. Why won't be there be alot of snow left Sunday? little melt on Friday froma cold rain...refreeze and then we add 3-5 on Saturday night. I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It will be tough to match last March lol. Even then, it didn't quite reach here, just a foot or two short. Flood stage is 9 ft...it crested above 14 ft. The original NWS/ERC forecast was over 18 ft. Yea 1000 year floods are hard to come by. Hopefully we reduce the pack before it builds again starting 3/5- 3/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Why won't be there be alot of snow left Sunday? little melt on Friday froma cold rain...refreeze and then we add 3-5 on Saturday night. I don't get it You probably will, heavy heavy rain with high dews in my area east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You probably will, heavy heavy rain with high dews in my area east. With a low tracking over the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 With a low tracking over the Cape? Where did you get that from? I would say NYC to BOS right up me fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Where did you get that from? I would say NYC to BOS right up me fanny. I think that's too far north..More likely over LI to ACk or the cape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Where did you get that from? I would say NYC to BOS right up me fanny. yeah no piece of guidance is that far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Doom comes in many disguises. In my case it will be a slow moving rainstorm that will unleash furry upon my basement. It will happen, and there's nothing I can do to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Doom comes in many disguises. In my case it will be a slow moving rainstorm that will unleash furry upon my basement. It will happen, and there's nothing I can do to stop it. Make drainage holes downhill before Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 It will be tough to match last March lol. Even then, it didn't quite reach here, just a foot or two short. Flood stage is 9 ft...it crested above 14 ft. The original NWS/ERC forecast was over 18 ft. yeah last march was pretty phenomenal. that was pretty much entirely storm driven as opposed to snow melt / storm combo. without any blocking present for the time being we should keep systems moving along and not be dealing with anything stuck spinning to our southeast. if we get one of those anomalous -4 sd u 850 events...look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Make drainage holes downhill before Fri. The more I think about it I should probably be alright. The frozen ground helps. I've never had winter flooding. Last March was a different animal. Ground was not very frozen by the time the big rain hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The more I think about it I should probably be alright. The frozen ground helps. I've never had winter flooding. Last March was a different animal. Ground was not very frozen by the time the big rain hit. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 bump, hopefully this early spring (2-4 weeks) we can get record rain, esp the Berks and Monads. Last spring was largely an early summer, so let's hope for a redux - breakout in late April into 70s and climo-extreme heat/severe in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 box's take: 2) HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE COASTAL PLAIN: A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1.50 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALMOST SURELY RESULT IN A VERY MESSY FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WITH PLENTY OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW CLOGS STORM DRAINS. THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY BASED ON 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AND IT CAUSED A LOT OF RISES BUT NO RIVER FLOODING. THEREFORE...NO FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING AND THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR SHORT FUSED FLOOD ADVISORIES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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